地球上哪些物种，有可能逃脱气候灾难而存活下来？

“I don’t think it will be the humans. I think we’ll go quite early on,” says Julie Gray with a laugh. I’ve just asked Gray, a plant molecular biologist at the University of Sheffield, which species she thinks would be the last ones standing if we don’t take transformative action on climate change. Even with our extraordinary capacity for innovation and adaptability, humans, it turns out, probably won’t be among the survivors.

我问谢菲尔德大学的植物分子生物学家朱丽·格雷，如果人类不对气候变化危机采取彻底行动，她认为地球上哪些物种将有可能逃脱气候灾难而存活下来。她大笑着回答我，“我认为不会有人类在内。我们人类会一早灭亡。”即使人类有巧夺天工的非凡创造力和适应力，但可能也无法成为幸存者。

This is partly because humans reproduce agonisingly slowly and generally just one or two at a time – as do some other favourite animals, like pandas. Organisms that can produce many offspring quickly may have a better shot at avoiding extinction.

部分原因是人类繁殖后代的速度实在太慢，通常人一生只能养育繁殖一两个后代，类似一些特别受人类青睐的动物，比如熊猫。具备快速生殖大量后代能力的生物逃过灭绝的几率较高。

It may seem like just a thought experiment. But discussing which species are more, or less, able to survive climate change is disturbingly concrete. As a blockbuster biodiversity report stated recently, one in every four species currently faces extinction. Much of this vulnerability is linked to climate change, which is bringing about higher temperatures, sea level rise, more variable conditions and more extreme weather, among other impacts.

这看来只是一个臆想实验。但有关地球各物种逃过气候变化而生存下来几率大小的讨论，却是令人不安的。最近一份引起各方重视的的生物多样性报告声称，目前地球上每四个物种中就有一个面临灭绝之灾。地球生物今天如此之脆弱，很大程度与当今的气候变化有关。气候巨变造成气温升高、海平面上升，而且出现更多极端反常的天气。

Some caveats are in order. While the seriousness of climate change is undeniable, it’s impossible to know exactly how those effects will play out for species vulnerability, especially far into the future. Methods of forecasting vulnerability are ever evolving, while limited and inconsistent data, plus the complex interactions of policies, land-use changes, and ecological effects, mean that projections aren’t set in stone. Climate change vulnerability assessments have had biases and blind spots (just as humans do more generally).Moreover, the indirect effects that are responsible for many climate change impacts on populations, such as in the food chain, are more complex to model than direct effects.

必须发出一些警告。虽然无人否认气候变化会带来严重后果，但也无人能精确认识气候变化将如何影响物种的脆弱性，尤其是在遥远的未来。预测哪些物种难以经受气候变化冲击的方法在不断进展，不过预测获得的数据却很有限，而且有矛盾之处。加上政策、土地使用变更和生态影响之间复杂的交互作用，意味着预测并非很准确，并非不需修改。就像人类通常的行为一样，人类对易受气候变化冲击物种的评估也存在偏见和盲点。此外，还有一些引起不少气候变化的间接因素，也对物种数量产生影响，例如生物食物链方面的影响，这比气候的直接影响更难以建立预测模式。

Another source of uncertainty has to do with life forms’ capacity to adapt. Take ectotherms (cold-blooded animals like reptiles and amphibians), which have historically been slower to adapt to climatic change than endotherms. For one thing, they are less able to adjust their body temperatures. But there are exceptions, like the American bullfrog, which may actually find more habitable environments as a consequence of warming.

另一个不确定性因素与物种的生命适应能力有关。以爬行动物和两栖动物所属的变温动物或冷血动物为例，这些变温动物在演化历史上不如恒温动物那样能很快适应气候的变化。原因之一是，变温动物无法调整自己的体温。不过也有例外，比如美洲牛蛙，可能更适应气候变暖的栖息地。

And, of course, there is an alternative: we humans could get our acts together and stop the climate crisis from continuing to snowball by adopting policies and lifestyles that reduce greenhouse gases. But for the purposes of these projections, we’re assuming that’s not going to happen.

当然，地球物种的命运也有另一种选择，但这要取决于人类。如果我们人类万众一心，采取措施，改变生活方式，减少温室气体的排放，就可以阻止气候危机像滚雪球一样地急速下滑加剧。但我们在预测不同物种受气候暖化冲击的回应和结局时，是假设这没有发生。