到2100年，气候变化可能使美国GDP减少10.5%

到2100年，气候变化可能使美国GDP减少10.5%

Plastic pollution found in the world’s oceans and the melting permafrost in the Arctic could have startling economic burdens, perhaps as much as $2.5 trillion and $70 trillion, respectively.

全球海洋塑料污染和北极永冻层的融化可能带来惊人的经济负担，分别高达2.5万亿美元和70万亿美元。

And while there may have been some hope that certain countries could escape the brunt of the impact, a new study suggests that “virtually all” nations will be negatively affected by climate change by 2100.

虽然有人曾希望某些国家能免受气候变化的冲击，但一项新的研究表明，到2100年，“几乎所有”国家都将受到气候变化的负面影响。

The study, published by the National Bureau of Economic Research, suggests that countries that are warm, cold, rich or poor will all see a significant loss of income if they do not abide by the 2015 Paris Agreement.

这项由美国国家经济研究局发布的研究表明，如果不遵守2015年《巴黎协定》，温暖、寒冷、富裕或贫穷国家的收入都将大幅减少。

“Using a panel data set of 174 countries over the years 1960 to 2014, we find that per-capita real output growth is adversely affected by persistent changes in the temperature above or below its historical norm, but we do not obtain any statistically significant effects for changes in precipitation,” the study’s abstract states.

“一组数据显示，174个国家在1960年至2014年间,对人均实际产出增长不利影响的持久变化的温度高于或低于其历史常态,不包括任何显著影响降水的变化。”该研究的抽象状态。

“Our counterfactual analysis suggests that a persistent increase in average global temperature by 0.04°C per year, in the absence of mitigation policies, reduces world real GDP per capita by 7.22 percent by 2100.”

“我们分析表明，如果没有减缓政策，全球平均气温每年将持续上升0.04°C，到2100年，全球实际人均GDP将减少7.22%。”

The impact on the US — which accounted for much of the research’s focus to compare economic activity in hot or wet areas — would be even greater, a loss of 10.5 percent of its GDP by 2100, according to the researchers.

研究人员表示，气候变化对美国的影响将更大，到2100年，美国GDP将减少10.5%。

Enlarge Image“Whether cold snaps or heat waves, droughts, floods or natural disasters, all deviations of climate conditions from their historical norms have adverse economic effects,” said Dr. Kamiar Mohaddes, a co-author of the study from Cambridge’s Faculty of Economics, in a statement.

剑桥大学经济学院的Kamiar Mohaddes博士在一份声明中说:“无论是寒潮、热浪、干旱、洪水还是自然灾害，气候条件与历史标准的所有偏差，都会对经济产生不利影响。”

The researchers looked at 10 different sectors, including manufacturing, services, retail and wholesale trade across the contiguous 48 states and found that all of them suffered from at least one aspect of climate change — heat, flood, drought or freeze.

研究人员调查了美国48个州的10个不同行业，包括制造业、服务业、零售和批发贸易，发现所有这些行业都受到气候变化——高温、洪水、干旱或冰冻——至少一方面的影响。

“By concentrating on the US, we were able to compare whether economic activity in hot or wet areas responds to temperature fluctuations around historical norms in the same way as that in cold or dry areas within a single large nation,” Mohaddes added.

“通过集中研究美国的情况，我们可以比较一个国家，炎热或潮湿地区的经济活动，对历史标准温度波动的反应，是否与寒冷或干燥地区相同。”

“Without mitigation and adaptation policies, many countries are likely to experience sustained temperature increases relative to historical norms and suffer major income losses as a result,” Mohaddes said. “This holds for both rich and poor countries as well as hot and cold regions.”

“如果没有减缓和适应政策，许多国家可能会经历高于历史标准的气温上升，并因此遭受重大的经济损失。”“这不仅适用于富国和穷国，也适用于全球任一地区。”

Canada was also specifically mentioned, as Mohaddes said the country is “warming up twice as fast as the rest of the world” and there are risks to its “physical infrastructure, coastal and northern communities, as well as human health and wellness, ecosystems and fisheries.”

莫哈德斯还特别提到了加拿大。他说，加拿大的“升温速度是世界其他地区的两倍”，其“有形基础设施、沿海和北部社区，以及人类健康和福祉、生态系统和渔业”都面临风险。

The country’s economy would decline by 13 percent, according to the report.

根据报告，该国的经济将下降13%。

Other countries, such as Japan, Switzerland and Russia, would also see outsize declines. The economies of these countries would decline 10 percent, 12 percent and 9 percent, respectively.

日本、瑞士和俄罗斯等其他国家GDP也将出现大幅下滑,分别下降10%、12%和9%。

Although the researchers acknowledge that world economies will change and adapt to the shifting climate, it may not be enough. According to scientific consensus, it takes roughly 30 years to adapt to climate change, from altering infrastructure to cultural practices. But if that time frame were sped up to 20 years, the US would still lose 7 percent of its GDP by the end of the century.

尽管研究人员承认世界经济将会改变并适应不断变化的气候，但这可能还不够。根据科学共识，从改变基础设施到文化实践，适应气候变化大约需要30年的时间。但是，如果把这个时间加快到20年，到本世纪末，美国仍将损失GDP的7%。

“The UK recently had its hottest day on record. Train tracks buckled, roads melted and thousands were stranded because it was out of the norm,” Mohaddes said. “Such events take an economic toll and will only become more frequent and severe without policies to address the threats of climate change.”

“英国最近经历了有史以来最热的一天。火车轨道被压弯，道路融化，数千人被困，这是不正常的。”莫哈德斯说。“如果没有应对气候变化威胁的政策，这样的事件会造成经济损失，而且只会变得更加频繁和严重。”

Although the report may seem dour about the prospects of the global economy, not all hope is lost, especially if countries abide by the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change. Abiding by the nonbinding agreement would limit the temperature increase to just 0.01 degrees Celsius, which would only cut world real GDP per capita by 1.07 percent.

尽管这份报告似乎对全球经济前景持悲观态度，但并非所有希望都已破灭，尤其是如果各国遵守2015年《巴黎气候变化协定》(Paris Agreement on climate change)的话。将气温上升限制在0.01摄氏度以内，世界实际人均GDP只会下降1.07%。