FT社评：汽车业加速迈进电动车时代

Scantily clad women are already something of an anachronism in the vast hangars of the Frankfurt Motor Show. But anyone hankering after old-style petrolhead culture would have had greater cause for nostalgia at this year’s industry gathering. Some of the cars on display had no steering wheel. A considerably larger number had no traditional engine — a sign of the arms race under way as carmakers rush to develop autonomous and electric vehicles.

在法兰克福车展的巨大展厅里，衣着暴露的车模已显得有些过时。而今年车展更会触动老式汽油车拥趸们的怀旧情怀。一些展出的车型不见了方向盘。更多的展车没有了传统发动机——这预示着随着汽车制造商们竞相开发自动驾驶汽车和电动汽车，一场“军备竞赛”已上演。

The speed of the shift is remarkable. Just a couple of years ago, the biggest carmakers were talking about electrification, but would typically have just one or two models on the stands. Now Renault-Nissan is set to produce 12 all-electric cars; Mercedes will offer electrified versions of all its cars by 2022. VW, the world’s biggest carmaker, says it will build 50 all-electric models by 2025 and electrify 300 models by 2030.

这一转变速度惊人。就在几年前，那些汽车制造巨头虽已开始谈论电气化，但一般只会推出一两个车型。如今，雷诺-日产(Renault-Nissan)计划生产12款纯电动车;梅赛德斯(Mercedes)将在2022年前推出旗下全系车型的电动版本。全球最大的汽车制造商大众(VW)表示，会在2025年前推出50款纯电动车型，并在2030年前实现旗下300款车型的电动化。

There is a real sense that the industry is nearing an inflection point. This is partly due to advances in battery technology and changing public perceptions: electric cars are becoming desirable. But it is driven by policy. European regulators were previously content to set environmental standards and let manufacturers decide how to meet them. Since the emissions cheating scandal, they are quite reasonably inclined to be more prescriptive.

这让人们真的感到汽车业正濒临一个拐点。在一定程度上这是由电池技术的进步及公众观念的转变带来的：对电动汽车的需求正在增加。但真正的推动力量是政策。欧洲的监管机构以往安于制定环境标准，让制造商们决定如何达标。自从爆出了排放欺诈丑闻，他们理所当然会加强规范。

The UK and France propose phasing out new petrol and diesel vehicles by 2040. City mayors are able to act much faster: Paris, Stuttgart and Madrid are among those that will ban diesel vehicles by 2025. This is prompting a rapid change in consumer behaviour: few people will risk buying a car that may be of limited use within a decade. Chinese authorities are now considering whether to impose similar restrictions: if they do, there will probably be a long period in which hybrid vehicles outnumber all-electric models, but there will be little future for petrol and diesel in either Asian or European markets.

英国和法国提出在2040年前逐步停售汽油和柴油汽车。市长们的行动要快得多：巴黎、斯图加特和马德里等城市将在2025年前禁止柴油汽车。这正促使消费者们的行为发生一个迅速的转变：很少有人会冒险买一辆在十年之内使用有可能受限的车。中国当局正在考虑是否实施类似的限制：如果他们也出台了限制措施，可能很长一段时间内混合动力汽车的数量仍会比纯电动车型多，但无论是亚洲还是欧洲市场，汽油和柴油汽车都几乎不再有未来可言。

Such a radical change brings challenges, ranging from the need to set up charging infrastructure, to the problems of managing new demands on power grids. And electric cars will of course only be as clean as the source from which electricity is generated. For car industry executives, though, there is a more pressing question: can they continue to make money?

这一巨变带来了不少挑战，从需要设立充电基础设施，到管理对电力系统的新需求等问题。此外，电动汽车的清洁程度当然完全取决于电力的来源。然而，对汽车行业的高管们来说，有一个更加迫切的问题：他们还能不能继续赚钱?

Carmakers’ margins are already stretched. The switch to electric vehicles will erode profitability further, since they will, at least initially, face higher component costs and lower sales volumes, while investing large sums in research and development.

汽车制造商们的利润已经非常薄。转向生产电动汽车将进一步削弱其盈利能力，因为他们将——至少在最初阶段——面临较高的零部件成本和较低的销量，同时又要在研发上投入大量资金。

This should change over time as battery costs come down — even if the improvement is not as startling as it has proved to be for renewable energy. The bigger challenge is that electric vehicles could fundamentally change carmakers’ business model. At present, the manufacturers control design, branding and the most important aspects of production. In future, up to 50 per cent of the value of the car could lie in electrical systems and electronics, rather than mechanical systems.

随着电池成本的降低，这一点应该会逐渐好转——即使这种改进并不如可再生资源那样显著。更大的挑战是电动汽车可能从根本上改变汽车制造商的商业模式。目前，制造商们控制着设计、品牌以及生产中最重要的方方面面。未来，汽车价值的50%可能在于电力系统和电子设备，而不是机械系统。

This is a huge opportunity for suppliers such as Delphi, which hopes to sell millions of the small electric motors used in hybrid vehicles; and for consumer electronics companies that can supply the software services required.

对于像德尔福(Delphi)这样的供应商来说，这是一个巨大的机遇。德尔福希望卖出数百万台用于混合动力汽车的小型电动机。此外，那些能够提供必要软件服务的消费电子企业也同样面临机遇。

If carmakers suffer from the transition, they deserve limited sympathy, given the industry-wide failings that led to the clampdown on diesel. But this disruption could also carry a cost to society, if it both cuts the overall number of jobs available and requires very different skills of employees. This transition may happen faster than anyone has been expecting. Policymakers must be alert and ready to respond.

如果这一转变让汽车制造商们叫苦，那鉴于这个行业普遍存在的缺陷导致了对柴油的禁止，他们也不值得太多同情。但这一巨变也会让社会付出代价——倘若它一方面减少了总的就业机会，另一方面又需要员工掌握截然不同的技能。这一转变的发生可能会比任何人预想得都快。政策制定者们必须严阵以待，随机应变。