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外国人最想和你聊的时事话题:疲软的日本经济

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2018年10月01日

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 What is weak Japanese economy 什么是疲软的日本经济

     Japan's gross domestic product fell an annualized 1.1 percent in the fourth quarter in 2010 marking the first decline in five quarters due to a drop in exports, diminishing government stimulus programs and weak consumer consumption, the Cabinet Office said in a preliminary report on Monday.
     According to the data, Japan has now relinquished its position as the world's second largest economy to China.
     Japan's nominal GDP, before adjustments for prices, totaled 5.47 trillion U.S. dollars in 2010, that pale before China's figure of near 5.8 trillion U.S. dollars. Japan has held the title of world's second largest economy for 42 years.
     "We are not engaging in economic activities to vie for ranking but to enhance people's lives. From that point of view we welcome China's economic advancement as a neighboring country." Chief Cabinet Secretary Yukio Edano said at a press briefing on Monday.
     "The important thing is to incorporate such vitality of China to seek growth in the Japanese economy." Edano continued.
     Japan's Economic and Fiscal Policy Minister Kaoru Yosano said that Japan wants to deepen its "friendly and favorable" economic ties with China.
     Economists said that slowing demand from emerging economies, particularly in Asia, coupled with a strong yen which reached 15-year high against the U.S. dollar during the recording period, weighed heavily on Japanese exports.
     "If the yen resumes its gains or Japan finds it difficult to emerge from deflation by the end of fiscal 2011, there could be calls for further monetary easing." said Norio Miyagawa, senior economist at Mizuho Securities Research and Consulting Co. in Tokyo.
     Analysts and government officials have predicted, however, that Japan will continue on a growth path in the January-March quarter as an upturn in the U.S. economy and demand for Japanese goods from the U.S. and its Asian neighbors has shown signs of increasing.
     "The data for the October-December quarter underscored that the economic condition is at a standstill." Yosano said, but added that "the situation surrounding Japan's economy is not necessarily bad amid bright signs seen in the U.S. economy for example."
     "The Bank of Japan and the government have the same view that the economy seemingly is at a standstill, but will turn upward." Yosano said.
     The annualized 1.1 percent drop was less than economists' median forecast for a 2.1 percent contraction, but private consumption remains a concern, slipping 0.7 percent in the recording period, after government incentives for purchases of fuel-efficient cars expired in September.
     Private consumption accounts for about 60 percent of Japan's economy.
     Capital spending rose 0.9 percent, however, marking the fifth straight quarter of increase, but the pace slowed from the previous quarter's 1.5 percent rise, the figures showed.
     The government said that exports and imports both retreated in the October-December period for the first time in seven quarters and net exports shed 0.1 percentage points off Japan's GDP growth in October-December, making a negative contribution for a second straight quarter.
     "It is difficult for the deflation-plagued Japanese economy to achieve self-sustained growth." said Naoki Murakami, chief economist at Monex Securities.
     "But the contraction will not last long. Companies' manufacturing activities are recovering rapidly in January-March this year from their bottom in October 2010." he said.
     Many analysts such as those at the World Bank and Goldman Sachs have been quoted as saying that in their opinion China may overtake the United States as the number one economy by 2025.
     更深一层次的原因是,日本为确保出口这个经济发动机的良好运转,实行外汇干预(foreign exchange rate intervention),大量买入美元,抛售(undersell)日元,因此造成了持有日元的投资获利大幅降低。日元兑美元的汇率近来确实大幅上升,但这更多是由美元疲弱(fatigue and weak)所造成的结果,日元兑欧元并未大幅攀升。虽然美元如今已降至固定汇率制度(fixed exchange rate system)时期其价值的四分之一,但仍然占全球外汇储备(foreign exchange reserve)的65%。欧元位列第二,占全球外汇总储备的25%,这两种货币共占全球外汇储备的90%,而日元在全球外汇储备中的地位已几乎可以忽略。







     For 1997, a special characteristic of the economic situation in developed countries was that the United States grew strongly whereas Japan's economy weakened. The US economic growth rate is estimated at 3.7%, whereas Japan was merely 0.8%.
     1997年,发达国家经济形势的特点是美国增长强劲而日本经济疲软。美国经济增长率估计为百分之三点七,日本仅为百分之零点八。
     If petroleum prices rise further, the world economy will need Europe and Japan to drive growth, as gas-guzzling America is looking vulnerable.
     如果高耗油的美国继续表现出经济疲软状态的话,那么随着油价进一步上涨,世界经济将需要欧洲和日本来推动。
     The yen continued to fall sharply across the board meanwhile following weak Japanese data overnight, allowing popularity for the carry trade to continue.
     隔夜公布疲软的日本经济数据促使日元继续下跌,推动套息交易的继续。
     The Japanese economy is recovered.
     日本经济已经复苏。
     The Japanese economy advances swiftly and vigorously in recent years.
     近年来,日本经济突飞猛进。
     The appreciation of Japanese Yen has greatly influence its economy.
     日元升值对日本的经济有很大的影响。
     Economic weakness does not immediately suppress the actual price.
     经济疲软不会马上就对实际价格产生抑制。
     We should draw lessons from the measures and historical experiences of government to harness inflation and economic weakness in early foundation.
     我们应当借鉴建国初治理通涨和经济疲软的措施及历史经验。
     However, by the year-end when inflation had cooled, the fears of an economic slowdown did not take place.
     但是,到年末通货膨胀已经冷静下来,担心经济疲软的现象也没有发生。
     There are still many vacationers who are battered by the effects of a weak economy. They will be pinching pennies and cutting corners as perhaps never before.
     很多度假的人仍受经济疲软的影响,他们将会分文必较,精打细算,恐怕以前从未如此。
     The Japanese economy developed at a high speed after the Second World War.
     日本战后经济高速发展。
     Japan's economy has been stagnant for more than a decade, occasionally gaining steam but failing to maintain consistent growth.
     在过去的10多年中,日本经济一直陷于停滞不前的状态,偶尔的增长往往不能稳定持续下去。
     Hopes are that steady improvements in the job market and resulting income growth will prompt Japanese consumers to spend more, strengthening the nation's nascent economic recovery so far sustained by exports.
     劳动力市场的稳步提高有望推动国民收入稳步递增,进而促进国内消费市场的发展,使刚刚显现出复苏态势的日本经济持续当前的形势。




     Merlin: I heard that you're planning to buy a car?
     梅林:听说你打算买车?
     Jessica: Yes, I've long been eager to buy a Honda.
     杰西卡:是的,我一直都想买一辆本田汽车。
     Merlin: It is said that being affected by the severe earthquake and tsunami, the automobile manufacturers like Honda, Toyota and Nissan have stopped production.
     梅林:据说受到日本地震和海啸的影响,日本的丰田、本田和尼桑等汽车制造商都已经停止生产了。
     Jessica: Yes, this earthquake has great impact on Japanese economy and people's life.
     杰西卡:是啊,这次地震给日本的经济和生活带来了非常大的影响。
     Merlin: It is reported that the economic loss of Japan has exceeded 230 billion dollars.
     梅林:据报道日本的经济损失已经超过2300亿美元了。
     Jessica: It is undoubtedly worsen the situation of Japanese economic weakness.
     杰西卡:这无疑使已经疲软的日本经济雪上加霜。
     Merlin: Japan has always been the country with strong economic power, isn't it?
     梅林:日本一直以来都是世界经济强国,不是吗?
     Jessica: There are many reasons that lead to its recession.
     杰西卡:很多原因导致了日本经济的疲软。
     Merlin: For example?
     梅林:比如呢?
     Jessica: First, during the past 20 years, Japan undergone continuous rotation of political parties. The instability of political situation has severely impeded its economic development. Second, the frequent automotive security issue of Japanese cars in recent years decreases the people's confidence. Coupled with the impact of the earthquake, the Japanese auto industry is suffering an unprecedented crisis. Third, Japan's household appliance industry has encountered a bottleneck, with its advantages towards other countries become less obvious. Besides, Japan is stepping into the aging society. One in five Japanese are the old, which cause the lack of domestic demand, go against the survival and development of enterprises, and lead to large amount of unemployment.
     杰西卡:首先,近20年来日本的政党不断轮换。政局的不稳定严重阻碍了日本经济的发展。其次,近几年来日本汽车不断出现安全性能问题,导致了民众对日产汽车的信心大幅降低。再加上这次地震的冲击,日本汽车产业受到了前所未有的危机。第三,日本的家电产业也遇到了瓶颈,对于其他国家的领先优势变得越来越不明显。此外,日本逐渐进入老龄化社会,每五个人中就有一个老年人。这会造成国内消费需求不足,不利于企业的生存和发展,并且造成大量的失业。
     Merlin: There are many people who choose to suicide because of unemployment.
     梅林:日本每年都会有很多人因为失业而自杀。
     Jessica: Because Japan still plays an important role to the global economic development, its economic recession must have negative effect on the economic development of other countries.
     杰西卡:由于日本对全球经济的发展仍然具有重要的作用,因此其经济的疲软必然会影响其他国家的经济发展。
     Merlin: Our country imports large quantity of cars and high-tech products from Japan and exports agricultural products to Japan every year. Its economic recession must have serious effect on our country's economic development.
     梅林:我国每年都会从日本进口大量汽车和高科技产品,并且向日本出口很多农产品。日本的经济衰退一定也会对我国的经济发展造成严重影响。
     Jessica: Yes. Now all the countries in world are mutual dependent.
     杰西卡:是的。如今世界各国的经济都是相互依存的。
    

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