外国人最想和你聊的时事话题：人民币升值
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What is appreciation of the RMB 什么是人民币升值
Revalue Yuan or not? This has been one of the hottest topics for the past decade and it has become an issue not only for Chinese policymakers but other governments around the world. The G20 summit of leaders from major developed and developing economies and the worsening of the European sovereign debt crisis have complicated the discussion of the Yuan's appreciation, with Chinese economists divided on the timing of the process. While some argue that appreciation would do more harm than good, others urge the opportunity be seized to accelerate the process of making the Yuan fully convertible.It is not time for Yuan appreciation. Yuan appreciation would benefit China's imports of products from machinery to resources, but the benefit would be limited compared with the damage to the overall economy. China has, for example, suffered from overcapacity in sectors such as iron and steel, and cheaper imports as a result of Yuan appreciation would only worsen the situation.
Yuan appreciation will benefit rich people in China, but it will do little to help improve the livelihoods of the poor. It would only widen the gap, which would contribute to social problems.
If the Yuan appreciates against the dollar, expectations of further gains in the value of the Yuan would lead to increased capital inflows, which would bring financial instability and would endanger China's financial security.
What has largely been ignored by many people is that Yuan appreciation would facilitate imports of agricultural products, which would be disastrous for China's more than 500 million farmers. Although the country's entry into the World Trade Organization did not have a major impact on domestic farming, Yuan appreciation would have a more adverse effect on the industry, leading to more job losses.
The sharp decline of the euro against the dollar and other major currencies means that the Yuan has effectively appreciated. Many people no longer expect the Yuan to resume its appreciation against the dollar, at least not in the next few months.
However, as long as the markets calm down and the euro stabilizes, we think China could still start to de-link the Yuan from the dollar. The move would most likely be a return to some sort of a basket with a widening trading band against the dollar. Initially we expect the Yuan to appreciate against the dollar, but the increased flexibility could allow the exchange rate to move both ways, giving China more room to maneuver in the future.
人民币升值的好处包括：增强我国的购买力（purchasing power）；吸引大量资本进入中国市场；促使中国的产业结构(industry structure)从劳动密集型(labor intensive)向高附加值(high value-added)为主的方向转化；为人民币走向世界打下基础；社会福利(social welfare)直接提高。人民币升值的弊端包括：国家的外汇储备(foreign exchange reserve)随着升值幅度多少，相应损失多少；产品出口(commodity export)数量减少；在一定程度上影响我国的劳务输出(export of labor)；导致进口增加，缩小我国的贸易顺差额(trade surplus)；银行坏账(bad debt)上升，带来失业(unemployment)问题。
Looking forward, the pressure on the appreciation of the RMB will be reduced, and depreciation is quite unlikely.
由此看来，人民币升值的压力将会减轻，但决不会贬值。
Both the inner and outside pressure of the further appreciation of Chinese currency will continue to increase.
人民币进一步升值的内外部压力将继续增长。
What would happen if the RMB rose by 30% overnight?
假如一夜之间人民币升值30%会发生什么事？
What is offshore hot money in china gambling after RMB appreciated?
人民币升值后境外热钱在中国到底还赌些什么？
The appreciation of RMB will harm the export companies in our country.
人民币升值会损害我国出口企业。
It is China that has the most to gain from allowing the Yuan to rise.
中国将从允许人民币升值中获益最多。
The appreciation of RMB yesterday surprised many investors although the financial market has increasingly stronger anticipation of this appreciation.
尽管金融市场对人民币升值的预期越来越强，但昨天的人民币升值仍令许多投资者感到意外。
The American Chamber of Commerce in China on Friday urged the US government to stop putting pressure on China to revalue the RMB.
驻中国美国商会周五催促美国政府停止向中国施加人民币升值压力。
The biggest fallacy of all is that a revaluation of the Yuan would greatly reduce America's trade deficit.
最大的谬论是，人民币升值将极大地减少美国的贸易逆差。
Over the past four years, the exchange rate of the RMB has appreciated 44 percent, while the country's foreign exchange reserves increased by $120 billion.
在过去的四年中，人民币汇率实际升值了44%，增加了1200亿美元左右的外汇储备。
The value of sterling has risen.
英镑已经升值。
A run on sterling following its rise in value against the dollar.
英镑对美元升值后引起的抢购英镑的热潮。
The export market has become very difficult since the rise in the dollar.
自从美元升值以来，出口市场面临着非常严重的困境。
The exchange rate of RMB remained stable, which stood at 1 US dollar = 8.2789 RMB Yuan at the end of December, an appreciation of 9 basic potions as compared with that at the end of 1997.
人民币汇率保持稳定，12月末人民币汇率为每美元兑8.2789元人民币，比上年末升值9个基本点。
Tom: The exchange rate between RMB and Dollar has been floating and mentioned frequently recently, what is the exchange rate?
汤姆：美元和人民币之间的汇率总是热点，什么是汇率？
Lin: It is the price of one currency expressed in terms of another.
琳：汇率是指一种货币用另一种货币来表示的对值。
Tom: Do you mean how much dollar could represent One Yuan?
汤姆：是不是一元钱等于多少美元？
Lin: Right!
琳：正确!
Tom: I am confused about it. Does it matter if the exchange rate changed?
汤姆：我有点搞不懂，汇率有浮动会有影响吗？
Lin: Of course. The inflation of RMB has both positive and negative effects for Chinese economy.
琳：当然有。人民币升值对我国经济既有积极的影响也有消极的影响。
Tom: What are the positive effects?
汤姆：积极影响有哪些呢？
Lin: First, it can increase our purchasing power. We can use less money to buy more commodities. Second, it can promote the transformation of Chinese industrial structure from labor intensive to capital intensive or technology intensive. Third, it can strengthen people's confidence. Last but not least, the social welfare will increase.
琳：首先，我们的购买力得到了提高。可以用更少的钱买到更多的物品。第二，它促进了我国产业结构由劳动密集型转变为资本或技术密集型。第三，它可以增强人们的信心。最后，社会福利水平能够得到提高。
Tom: How about the negative effects?
汤姆：那消极方面呢？
Lin: First, our foreign exchange reserve stands first in the list, while the U.S. dollar takes a relative large proportion. Along with the appreciation of RMB towards U.S. dollar, our foreign exchange reserve will suffer a severe shrink and undergo lost. Second, the export industry will attacked by this appreciation with a decrease of export volume. Besides, it will also lead to amount of unemployment.
琳：首先，我国的外汇储备现在居世界第一位，而美元在外汇储备中所占的比重相当大。随着人民币对美元的升值，我国的外汇储备将会缩水，从而造成损失。第二，我国的出口产业会受到冲击，出口数量减少。此外，还会出现大量的失业。
Tom: Everything does have two sides!
汤姆：凡事真是都有两面性啊!
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