女人不恨嫁，男人要转变！

Once upon a time women seemed more eager than men to marry. Today such generalizations no longer apply.

曾几何时，女人似乎比男人更迫切地要走进婚姻。然而，这种一概而论的观点在今天已不再适用。

Is it women’s preferences (the demand for husbands) or men’s preferences (the supply of husbands) that are driving the trend toward less marriage? It’s hard to tell, but some gender asymmetries are apparent. For instance, a recent poll of unmarried blacks of prime marrying age found that only 25 percent of women were seeking a long-term relationship compared with 43 percent of men.

女人的偏好决定对“丈夫”的需求，而男人的偏好决定“丈夫”的供应，那么到底是女人的选择还是男人的选择在推动当今的不婚浪潮呢?这很难说，但存在一些明显的性别不对称。比如，最近对适婚年龄未婚黑人进行的一项调查发现，寻求长期婚恋关系的女性只占25%，而男性却占43%。

Some people may dislike application of concepts like supply and demand to the search for potential lifetime partners. After all, we like to think of ourselves — and our partners — as unique individuals, not as substitutes or next-best choices.

或许一些人在寻找潜在终生伴侣时不喜欢用供需这样的概念。毕竟，我们喜欢把自己，以及我们的伴侣，当成独特的个体，而不是替代品或退而求其次的选择。

But the concept of a marriage market offers some useful insights into the evolution of marriage as an institution. It also helps explain why markets don’t always generate efficient adjustments to new circumstances.

但是，婚姻市场的概念对于婚姻作为一种制度的演变提供了一些有用的洞见。它也有助于解释，为什么市场不总能针对新的情况做出高效率的调整。

As a contractual commitment, marriage has a price. It offers both costs and benefits to potential partners. The contract involves commitments for financial support and family care on terms that can be completely egalitarian.

婚姻作为一种契约关系有自己的价格。它为未来的伴侣们既带来成本又带来效益。这个契约涉及经济支持和家庭关怀的承诺，其条款可以是完全平等的。

But the terms can also be more advantageous to men or to women. For example, Anglo-American law traditionally gave men greater rights than women in marriage, and some religious traditions today encourage wives, but not husbands, to promise obedience.

但是这些条款也可能对男方或者女方更加有利。比如，英美法律传统上会在婚姻中赋予男人更多权利，同时当今的一些宗教传统还鼓励妻子(但不是丈夫)做出顺从的承诺。

Economic prospects matter: not just the relative earnings of men and women but also their relative contributions of time and energy to domestic work and family care.

经济预期很重要：不仅是男女之间的收入对比，还有他们在家务和照顾家人上投入的时间和精力的对比。

Women are willing to pay a higher price for marriage than men if they have few alternatives, as when their opportunities for economic independence are restricted. An increase in the supply of women who want to marry drives the price of marriage down for men.

女人如果没有什么选择(比如当她们获得经济独立的机会受到限制时)，就会愿意对婚姻付出更高的价格。想要结婚的女人供应增加，就会降低男人对婚姻付出的价格。

In these circumstances, as the economist Shoshana Grossbard puts it, husbands can pay a low “quasi-wage” for domestic services.

在这种情况下，正如经济学家肖莎娜·格罗斯巴尔(Shoshana Grossbard)所说，丈夫可以为家务活支付较低的“准工资”。

If the supply of women who want to marry decreases, the terms of marriage move in favor of women. They are likely to receive a larger share of joint income and leisure time. Husbands become more likely to relinquish some decision-making power and do more housework and child care.

一旦想要结婚的女人数量减少，婚姻的条款就会变得对女人有利。她们有望从家庭总收入得到更大份额，并得到更多休闲时间。而丈夫将更有可能交出一些决策权，并且做更多家务和照顾孩子的事。

Marriage market dynamics mean that a bride’s bargaining power is partly determined by the number of other choices her groom has (and vice versa). The changing terms of marriage complicate the effects of women’s improved economic position. On the one hand, men should like the prospect of sharing income with a high-earning woman. On the other hand, they may find it difficult to adjust to a new social role.

婚姻市场的格局意味着，新娘的议价能力在一定程度上取决于她的新郎有多少其他选择(反之亦然)。婚姻条款的不断变化，让女人经济地位改善的影响变得复杂。一方面，男人应该喜欢与高收入的女人分享收入的前景。但从另一方面来说，他们或许会觉得难以适应新的社会角色。

Considerable research suggests that gender roles are, in fact, pretty sticky. In a recent article, Marianne Bertrand, Jessica Pan and Emir Kamenica offer evidence that wives often try to enact traditional gender roles in an apparent effort to reassure their husbands that they are not a threat. (The New York Times took note of their findings in an article and a commentary.)

大量研究似乎显示，性别角色实际上几乎没有改变。在近期的一篇文章中，玛丽安娜·伯特兰(Marianne Bertrand)、杰西卡·怕恩(Jessica Pan)和埃米尔·卡梅尼察(Emir Kamenica)提供证据说明，妻子往往试图扮演传统的性别角色，目的显然是为了让她们的丈夫放心：她们不是威胁。(《纽约时报》在一篇报道及一篇评论文章中提到了他们的研究成果。)

These economists also contend that couples in which the wife earns more than the husband are less satisfied with their marriage and are more likely to divorce. But as the sociologist Philip Cohen points out, this assertion is based on data more than 20 years old and disregards a large body of sociological research.

这些经济学家还提出，妻子收入高过丈夫的夫妇对婚姻的满意度较低，更有可能离婚。但正如社会学家菲利普·科恩(Philip Cohen)所指出的，这个说法的依据是20多年前的老数据，而且忽视了大量社会学研究。

Some attitudes have recently changed in the United States. According to a recent survey by the Pew Research Center, only about 28 percent of respondents this year agreed that “it was generally better for a marriage if a husband earns more than his wife,” compared with 40 percent in 1997.

在美国，近年一些态度已发生变化。根据皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Center)最近的一项调查，今年只有28%的受访者同意“丈夫比妻子收入高一般对婚姻更有益”的观点，而在1997年，持这种观点的人占40%。

Economic factors may shape the pace of attitudinal change. In a fascinating study of nonmarriage among women college graduates in Japan, Jisoo Hwang observes that men whose mothers were employed have less traditional attitudes than other men and were also more likely to marry. She hypothesizes that the relatively recent and abrupt increase in female employment in that country made it more difficult for men there to adjust.

经济因素或许对态度转变的速度产生了影响。哈佛大学经济学博士生黄志修(Jisoo Hwang)对日本女性大学毕业生不结婚的现象进行了一项有趣的研究。她发现，母亲有工作的男性态度不如其他男性传统，也更倾向于结婚。她推测，日本女性就业相对来说在近年突然增加，使日本男性更难适应。