自动驾驶汽车,短期内不会取代卡车司机的工作

自动驾驶汽车,短期内不会取代卡车司机的工作

Truck drivers can put the brakes on their worst automation fears.

卡车司机最担心的自动化问题是刹车。

In a study published in the Industrial and Labor Relations Review, Maury Gittleman, a research economist at the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and Kristen Monaco, an associate commissioner in the Office of Compensation and Working Conditions also at BLS, argue that there are three main reasons why the threat of automation, robots and AI to truck drivers is more fear-mongering than fearsome.

在一份发表在《劳资关系评论》上的研究报告中，劳工统计局的研究经济学家莫利·吉特曼和劳工统计局薪酬和工作条件办公室的副专员克里斯汀·摩纳哥认为，造成这种状况的主要原因有三个:自动化、机器人和人工智能对卡车司机的威胁更多的是散布恐惧，而不是恐惧本身。

“Looking at the data, we believe that, while the risk of job loss from automation is very real, the projections that often get touted are overstated,” the two penned in Harvard Business Review Wednesday.

两人周三在《哈佛商业评论》(Harvard Business Review)上撰文称：“看看这些数据，我们认为，虽然自动化带来的失业风险非常真实，但经常被吹捧的预测却被夸大了。”

First of all, “truck drivers do more than drive trucks,” they say.

首先，“卡车司机要做的比原来开卡车还多。”

“While some tasks are closer to automation – for example, checking for unbalanced loads, low tires, and other safety problems can be performed by sensors – dealing with any issues still requires human intervention,” they point out.

他们指出：“虽然有些任务更接近自动化，例如，传感器可以检查不平衡负载、低轮胎和其他安全问题，但任何问题的处理仍然需要人工干预。”

They next argue that “full automation of truck driving is far into the future.”

他们接着争辩说，“卡车驾驶的完全自动化，还是遥远的未来。”

Referring to the standards set by the Society of Automotive Engineers, which defines automation on a scale of 0 to 5 (5 being fully automated), the study found some companies tinkering with level 4 automation, but none at level 5.

根据美国汽车工程师协会(Society of Automotive Engineers)制定的标准，该协会对自动化的定义范围为0至5(5表示完全自动化)，研究发现，一些公司在修改4级自动化，但没有一家达到5级。

“We used level 4 as our benchmark, because level 5 automation, which requires the system to perform all driving and monitoring activities in all conditions, is not currently being tested in practice, and level 3 automation, which requires human intervention as the system backup, does not really threaten drivers’ jobs,” the report outlined.

“我们以4级自动化作为基准，因为要求系统在所有条件下执行所有驾驶和监控活动的5级自动化，目前尚未在实践中进行测试，而3级自动化则需要人为干预作为系统备份，不会真正威胁到司机的工作。”

Most of that level 4 development, they found, is largely focused on long-haul trips, not short or local ones, which drastically reduces the number of potential jobs impacted by automation.

他们发现，大部分4级自动化使用者主要集中在长途旅行，而不是短途或本地旅行，这大大减少了受自动化影响的潜在工作的数量。

This leads them to their final point: “There aren’t as many truck drivers in the U.S. as people think.”

这就引出了他们的最后一点：“美国的卡车司机没有人们想象的那么多。”

Instead of the millions of truck driver jobs touted as threatened, the reality is closer to 456,000 drivers. It’s a “much smaller number than the self-driving truck headlines suggest, but still quite a significant one,” they noted.

与数百万卡车司机的工作岗位受到威胁不同，实际数字接近45.6万名司机。他们指出，这个数字“比自动驾驶卡车的头条新闻显示的要小得多，但仍然相当可观”。