经济衰退来了吗?如何辨别它们?

经济衰退来了吗?如何辨别它们?

Warning bells are going off about a possible recession in America, perhaps in time for the 2020 election. The key to whether the US economy keeps growing or stalls rests largely on consumers, and whether or not they keep spending.

在2020年大选之前，美国可能会陷入经济衰退的警钟已经敲响。美国经济是继续增长还是停滞，关键在很大程度上取决于消费者，以及他们是否继续消费。

So far, consumer spending has held up pretty well. That's not surprising. Unemployment is near a 50-year low, and wages are growing strong. Because consumer spending accounts for about 70% of the nation's economic activity, that's all good news.

到目前为止，消费者支出状况良好。这并不奇怪。失业率接近50年来的最低点，工资也在强劲增长。由于消费者支出约占美国经济活动的70%，这都是好消息。

"The consumer drives the economic train," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics. "If American households are out spending, the economy will remain intact. We'll avoid a recession. But if American households waver in their spending, it's game over -- we're in a recession."

穆迪分析首席经济学家马克•赞迪表示:“消费者驱动着经济列车。”他说:“如果美国家庭减少开支，经济就不会受到影响。我们将避免经济衰退。但如果美国家庭在支出上动摇，结果就不尽人意了——我们正处于衰退之中。

Zandi is in the school of economists who believe that consumers are not quite ready to stop spending. Unemployment is currently only 3.7%. It has been below 4% for 17 straight months. If the number of jobless starts to rise, that's cause for worry, he said.

包括赞迪在内经济学家学派认为，消费者还没有完全准备好停止消费。目前失业率仅为3.7%。连续17个月低于4%。他说，如果失业人数开始上升，那就值得担心。

Lynn Franco is senior director of economic indicators at The Conference Board, one of the research firms which tracks consumer confidence. She said people still feel good about the job market, and that makes them feel better about spending. "That's one of the pillars of consumer spending."

林恩·佛朗哥是世界大型企业联合会经济指标高级主管，该机构是追踪消费者信心的研究机构之一。她说，人们仍然对就业市场感觉良好，这使他们对消费感觉更好。“这是消费支出的支柱之一。

But hiring by employers has already slowed by about a quarter this year compared to the same time last year. If businesses pull back on hiring more, unemployment could start to rise. Zandi said he believes there's a better than 50% chance that could happen by spring 2020.

但与去年同期相比，今年雇主的招聘速度已经放缓了约四分之一。如果企业减少招聘，失业率可能会开始上升。赞迪说，他相信，到2020年春季，实现这一目标的可能性超过50%。

Despite strength so far, there are some worrisome signs in consumer spending.

尽管到目前为止经济表现强劲，但消费者支出仍有一些令人担忧的迹象。

The sale of cars and homes -- big-ticket purchases that are good barometers of spending -- are weakening. Both fell about 2% in the first half of 2019 over the same period the year earlier, even though low interest rates made it relatively cheap to borrow.

汽车和住宅的销售正在走弱，而高价购买是良好的支出晴雨表。与去年同期相比，这两种产业在2019年上半年的股价均下跌了约2%，尽管低利率使得借贷成本相对较低。

And any decline in cars and home purchases can have ripple effects.

汽车和房屋购买量的任何下降都可能产生连锁反应。

And some major retailers, such as Walmart (WMT), and Target (TGT) have reported strong US sales. "Our customers' economic health remains solid," Walmart CFO Brett Biggs told investors last week. On Wednesday Target reported a 3% rise in US sales.

一些主要零售商，如沃尔玛和塔吉特，报告了美国的强劲销售。沃尔玛首席财务官布雷特•比格斯(Brett Biggs)上周对投资者表示:“我们客户的经济健康状况依然稳健。”塔吉特百货周三公布，美国销售额增长3%。

But Zandi warned some of those gains may come at the expense of smaller retailers, both mom-and-pop stores as well as other chains such as Macy's (M) or JCPenney (JCP). And Zandi said if retail sales start to slow, it could lead to widespread store closings and layoffs through throughout the retail sector.

但赞迪警告说，其中一些增长可能会以规模较小的零售商为代价，包括夫妻店以及梅西百货(Macy's)或杰西潘尼(JCPenney)等其他连锁店。赞迪说，如果零售销售开始放缓，可能会导致整个零售行业普遍关闭商店和裁员。

"The retail sector is right on precipice of a major shakeout. That's a lot of jobs in every community across the country," he said.

他说:“零售业正处在一次重大调整的悬崖边上。全国每个社区都有大量的就业机会。”