GRE作文范文 Issue-30

"It is a grave mistake to theorize before one has data."

嘉文博译Sample Essay

It is a rare situation where one is faced with a dilemma without the benefit of having at least some information about that particular state of affairs. Seldom does something pop up out of nowhere for which there is absolutely no data available. However, when a situation occurs where there is no information immediately available, hypothesizing about a theoretical explanation for that set of circumstances can certainly lay the groundwork for an understanding of what has happened.

To theorize means to form a theory about something or to speculate about a set of circumstances. Merriam Webster's dictionary defines a theory in part as "a hypothesis assumed for the sake of argument or investigation; [or] an unproved assumption." People automatically make assumptions about a situation based on prior experience with a set of circumstances or a particular set of facts. It is the normal decision and thought-making process that human beings go through in trying to decipher the world around them. If an individual were not allowed to make an assumption about a situation, the individual would be lacking an essential human element in the process of interpreting that particular situation. Theorizing about a possible explanation can eliminate implausible solutions as well as generate a range of possibilities for what has occurred.

Additionally, the human ability to think in a logical manner to rationally explain an event or series of events is one important characteristic that separates us from animals. This ability stems from being not only able to remember past facts and events, but to actually apply those memories to future situations. The ability to learn from the past is a fundamental part of building knowledge, which allows us to advance as a civilization. If one accepts the idea that it is a grave mistake to hypothesize in cases where there is a lack of data, one of the most essential tools of learning would be taken away from us.

For example, consider the situation where a human skeleton is found with absolutely no clues as to what happened to this particular person. If the investigative team is not allowed to hypothesize or make an assumption about the circumstances under which the person died, they could not make a decision on how to even begin their investigation. Should they proceed with the investigation as a homicide or a death of natural causes? With no data available, the investigators must theorize as to a cause of death and thus proceed with the inquiry on that basis alone. Without a hypothesis, there is no guide or "roadmap" as to how to proceed, and the investigators work would be greatly hampered.

As another example, consider the situation faced in the beginning by scientists researching cancer. At first, scientists and doctors knew only that people were dying slowly from some cause, but the cause itself was unknown. Researchers were faced with almost no data other than the fact that people were dying. Hypothesizing about the situation led doctors to look inside the body for the cause. Further hypotheses have led to the state of cancer research today, and obviously, much work remains to be done as no cure has been found as yet. It may be likely that a cure for some types of cancer may come from pure speculation based on a theory rather than on any hard evidence or data.

It goes without saying that it is a rare situation where there is no data available to form a hypothesis on which to proceed. But even in situations where there is only a small amount of data available, a hypothesis can be an invaluable director toward the truth.

(606 words)

参考译文

在尚未掌握数据资料的情况下就进行理论阐述，这是一种极为严重的错误

人们面对某一困境，但对这一事态没能掌握最起码的信息线索，这一情境是极为罕见的。某事无缘无故地冒出来且无根可寻，没有一点信息线索，这种事情一般是很少存在的。但是，当出现一个事态且没有直接的信息时，为那一系列情状假设某种理论上的解释无疑会为我们了解所发生的事情的真相打下基础。 进行理论说明，指的是对某事物形成一个理论或对一系列事实进行理论判断。Merriam Webster词典对"理论"的定义是这样的："为了论证或研究所做的假说;(或)尚未证实的假设。"人们自然地根据以前对一系列情况或事实的经验对一种情况进行假设。人们在试图破解他们周围的世界时肯定要经过正常的判断和思想过程。倘若我们不允许对某一事态做一假设，那么我们在解释那一事态的过程中就会缺少最基本的人类因素。对一个可能的解释做假设，不但可以消除不合情理的解释，还会为所发生的事情导出一系列的可能性。

此外，人类用逻辑的方法进行思考来合理地解释一个事件或一系列事件的能力，是区分人类与动物的重要特征。这种能力源自人类不仅能够记忆过去的事实和事件，而且还能把那些记忆的东西应用于未来的情况。从过去学到有用东西的能力，是构建知识的基本因素，而构建知识使得我们能够作为文明人取得进步。如果我们认为在缺少信息资料时进行理论假设是一个极为严重的错误，那么我们最基本的学习方法之一就会被剥夺。

例如，设想发现了一具人的骨骼，但没有任何线索表明该人发生了什么。如果调查小组不被允许假定或假设该人死时的情景，那么他们就不可能做出决定如何开始他们的调查。他们是从凶杀还是从自然死亡着手调查呢?尽管没有信息线索可寻，调查人员必须假设一个死因，在此基础上展开调查。如果没有假设，那就没有进行调查的导向或"路线图"，因而调查人员的工作也必将严重受阻。

再例，设想研究癌症的科学家在最初时所面对的境况。首先，科学家和医生仅仅知道这人正因为某种原因慢慢死去，但真正原因是什么却一无所知。研究人员除了知道那人正在死去之外几乎没有任何信息线索。对原因的假设使医生检查病人身体的内脏以寻找原因。进一步的假设已导致了今天的癌症研究，而且显然，因为还没有找到治疗的方法，所以今后还需要做很多工作。很有可能，一种治疗某些癌症的方法出自以某种理论为根据的假设，而不是出自确凿的证据或事实。

不言自明，没有任何信息线索可让我们形成一个假设并由此着手工作，这种情况是很少见的。但是，即使在只有极少量信息线索的情况下，一个假设可能就是通往真理的宝贵向导。