奥巴马可能请中国介入阿富汗

在美国总统巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)考虑是否向阿富汗增兵的最终决定之际，他下周对北京的访问，将带来一个敦促中国在这场冲突中扮演更大角色的机会。

As Barack Obama, US president, considers a final decision on whether to send more troops to Afghanistan, his visit to Beijing next week will be a chance to press China to become more involved in the conflict.

据了解美中双方讨论的外交人士、官员和学者介绍，自2009年初以来，奥巴马政府一直在鼓励北京方面在更大程度上介入阿富汗事务，具体选择包括增加人道援助，以及派遣军警，协助训练阿富汗警察队伍。北京方面已经在中国国内培训阿富汗武装部队，以对付毒品贸易。

Since the start of 2009, the Obama administration has encouraged Beijing to become more engaged in Afghanistan, according to diplomats, officials and academics briefed on the discussions, with options such as greater humanitarian assistance and sending military police to help train the Afghan police force. Beijing already trains Afghan forces in China to tackle the drugs trade.

美方加大游说力度之际，北京方面已日渐意识到，如果美国撤离，塔利班卷土重来，中国的利益将受到损害。

The increased US lobbying comes at a time of growing realisation in Beijing that its interests would be damaged by a US withdrawal and Taliban victory.

美国的阿富汗和巴基斯坦问题特使理查德·霍尔布鲁克(Richard Holbrooke)今年4月曾访问北京举行商谈，此后双方进行了一系列接触。霍尔布鲁克的一些助理人员昨日已到北京，为奥巴马周日抵达做准备。在许多全球问题上希望中国作为合作伙伴的奥巴马政府，曾希望在华盛顿为中国官员安排一次“跨部门”会议，由参与阿富汗和巴基斯坦事务的不同美国政府部门作介绍。不过，这样的会议尚未举办。美方还希望北京方面利用对巴基斯坦的影响力，向共同的战略目标努力。

Richard Holbrooke, the US special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, visited Beijing in April for talks and there have been a string of contacts since then. Some of Mr Holbrooke's aides were in Beijing yesterday, ahead of Mr Obama's arrival on Sunday. The Obama administration, which wants China to be a partner on many global issues, had hoped to arrange an “inter-agency” meeting for Chinese officials in Washington for briefings by the different US government departments involved in Afghanistan and Pakistan. However, this has yet to take place. The US also hopes Beijing will use its influence with Pakistan towards shared strategic goals.

“这是一个黄金机会，让中国被西方视为站在同一立场，”美国乔治·华盛顿大学(George Washington University)的中国专家沈大伟(David Shambaugh)表示。他补充说，中国应当既考虑提供民事援助（如建设基础设施），也考虑提供警察培训。“这将是对中国是否会成为真正伙伴的一个检验。”

“This is a golden opportunity for China to be seen by the west to be on the same side,” said David Shambaugh, a China expert at George Washington University, who added that China should consider both civilian assistance, such as building infrastructure, and police training. “It is a test case of whether China will become a real partner.”

不过他承认，中国存在高度的阻力与怀疑，尤其是在中国军方。2001年美军开始在阿富汗作战的那一天，他恰好在中国国防大学访问，那里的一名中国将军向他发出警告：“你们将永远无法脱身。”

However, he acknowledged the high levels of resistance and scepticism, especially among the Chinese military. On a visit to China's National Defence University in 2001 on the day US military operations began in Afghanistan, a general there warned him: “You will never get out.”

虽然中国意识到美国撤离将损害自己在阿富汗的利益，但它仍不愿意扮演积极的角色。

Although China recognises the damage a US withdrawal would do to its interests there, it is reluctant to play an active role.

“美国有人期望中国将向阿富汗派遣武装警察，这是中国所不能承受的，”中国人民大学国际关系教授金灿荣表示。“中国有可能提供更多资金，但要派遣武装人员？绝无可能。”

“The expectations in the US that China will send armed police to Afghanistan, that is too much for China,” says Jin Canrong, professor of international relations at Renmin University of China. “It is possible China will send more money, but armed men? No way.”