哥本哈根气候谈判冲刺

谈判者和部长们昨日未能在哥本哈根气候变化会议上实现关键目标，即达成温室气体排放协定，让国家和政府首脑能够签署。多数与会首脑已在昨晚抵达哥本哈根。

Negotiators and ministers at the Copenhagen climate change talks failed in their key aim yesterday – to have a deal on greenhouse gas emissions ready for their heads of state and government to sign, as the majority arrived last night.

英国能源和气候变化大臣埃德·米利班德(Ed Miliband)表示，能否达成首份所有国家都同意的历史性气候变化协定，还“未见分晓”。

The chances of a historic agreement on climate change – the first that would be agreed among all countries – remained “in the balance”, said Ed Miliband, the UK's climate secretary.

今天标志着一场已持续近20年的马拉松进入最后冲刺阶段。有很多次，包括最终带来京都议定书的1997年日本会议，各国看上去已接近达成一致，却在最后一刻受挫。在京都那次，正是因为美国未能批准，才导致没有全球承诺。

Today marks the final sprint of a marathon that has carried on for nearly two decades. Many times, such as at the 1997 conference in Japan that produced the Kyoto protocol, countries have looked close to agreeing, only to be thwarted at the last minute. In the case of Kyoto, it was the US's failure to ratify that ensured there would be no global commitment.

在会议仅剩下最后24小时多一点之际，一些关键元素已经到位。但在协定可以签署之前，各方必须对所有内容达成一致。各国领导人还要进行大量艰巨谈判。

With little over 24 hours to go, some of the key elements have fallen into place. But everything has to be agreed before a deal can be signed. Leaders still have much tough negotiating to do.

正如过去11天期间的争吵所充分显示的，还有很多事可能破坏协议的达成。在这些争吵中，发达国家往往与发展中国家针锋相对。中国与美国之间发生的大国冲突，位于这些分歧的中心。但较小的发展中国家也摆出强硬姿态，威胁要拒绝签约，尽管即便没有它们加入，大国也可能会试图达成协定。

As has been made starkly clear by the squabbling of the last 11 days, often pitching developed nations against their developing counterparts, many things could still derail a deal. At the heart of the divisions lies the great power clash between China and the US. But small developing countries are also throwing their weight around and threatening to refuse to sign up, although big powers might try to proceed without them.

美国昨日增强了达成协定的希望，终于公开表示，愿意参与向发展中国家提供1000亿美元的长期资助，帮助它们应对气候变化的影响。

The US did boost the prospects of a deal yesterday by finally agreeing in public to contribute to a long-term offer of 0bn financial assistance to developing countries to help them cope with the effects of climate change.

但与其它发达国家一样，华盛顿方面尚未表明，美国将为达到这一资助目标作出多少贡献。

But Washington, in common with other developed nations, has not yet said how much it would contribute towards this goal.

日本也承诺在未来三年内拿出150亿美元，为发展中国家提供“快速启动”资金，使发达国家接近了穷国要求的每年100亿美元资助的水平。

Japan also promised bn over the next three years in “fast-start” financing to developing countries, which brings developed countries close to the bn a year poor countries are demanding.

关键的未决问题之一是，中国是否会同意让其减缓排放情况在国际层面得到监测。

A critical outstanding issue is whether China will agree to have its emissions curbs monitored at an international level.

“如果连追求透明度的承诺都没有，那对我们来说就有点像一个阻碍达成协议的因素了，”美国国务卿希拉里·克林顿(Hillary Clinton)表示。

“If there is not even a commitment to pursue transparency, that's kind of a dealbreaker for us,” Hillary Clinton, US secretary of state, said.

中国表示，它致力于实现透明度，但未提供细节。欧盟各国领导人昨晚开会，讨论欧盟是否应当把自己的减排目标从到2020年减排20%，提高至讨论范围的高端，即减排30%。这将是任何协定的关键元素之一。

China said it was committed to transparency but did not give details. Leaders from the European Union met last night to talk over whether the bloc should raise its offer of cutting emissions by 20 per cent by 2020 to the higher end of its discussed range, of 30 per cent. This will be a key element of any deal.

各方酝酿的潜在折衷方案之一，是提出减排25%。

One potential compromise being mooted is a move to a 25 per cent reduction.

意大利环境部长斯特凡尼亚·普雷斯蒂贾科莫(Stefania Prestigiacomo)提出了谈判可能持续到明年的可能性。

Stefania Prestigiacomo, Italy's environment minister, raised the prospect that the negotiations could continue into next year.

一名欧盟官员表示，中国也必须提高自己的目标，从到2020年将单位国内生产总值(GDP)排放量削减40%至45%，提高到削减50%以上。

An EU official said China would also have to increase its offer, of reducing its emissions per unit of gross domestic product by 40 to 45 per cent by 2020, to a reduction of more than 50 per cent.

另一个棘手的地方是京都议定书，该条约曾被许多签约发达国家视为气候政策的基石，现在却成了套在谈判脖子上的枷锁。

Another sticking point is the Kyoto protocol, which has turned from being regarded as a cornerstone of climate policy by many developed country signatories into being a millstone round the neck of the talks.

由于美国未批准该条约，因此就形成了谈判必须沿着两条轨道推进的麻烦局面：一条轨道是将京都议定书延续至2012年以后（该条约的主要条款将在那一年过后失效），而另一条轨道是商定一个纳入美国的新框架。

Since the US has failed to ratify the treaty, creating an unwieldy situation where negotiations have had to proceed along two tracks: one to extend the Kyoto protocol beyond 2012, when the main provisions of the pact expire, and another to agree a new framework that would include the US.

发展中国家支持京都议定书，该条约对发达国家规定了理论上具有约束力的承诺，但对发展中国家没有约束，包括中国这个全球最大排放国。发展中国家经常表示担心，延续京都议定书的轨道正被放弃，由包括美国的新过程取而代之。新过程称为“长期合作行动”(Long-term Co-operative Actions)。

Developing countries support the Kyoto protocol, which imposes supposedly binding commitments on developed countries but not on developing ones, including China, the world's biggest emitter. They have often raised fears that the Kyoto track of the process was being abandoned, to be replaced by the newer process, known as Long-term Co-operative Actions, which includes the US.

气候谈判对法律程序的专注，令发达国家感到郁闷。日本首相鸠山由纪夫(Yukio Hatoyama)对英国《金融时报》表示，更重要的是拟定一份新协议，而该协议与京都议定书的不同之处在于，它将纳入全球所有排放大国。

The focus on the legal formalities of the talks has exasperated developed countries. Yukio Hatoyama, prime minister of Japan, told the Financial Times it was more important to set out a new agreement that, unlike the Kyoto treaty, would include all of the world's big emitters.

如果各国在哥本哈根签署一份政治宣言，那将离达到目标还有很长一段路。明年，各国将必须召开多次会议，以便拟定一份有法律约束力的条约，纳入在哥本哈根同意的任何承诺。这个过程也将问题重重。“有些人认为，只要拿来（任何哥本哈根宣言），把它润色一下，就能得到一份具有法律约束力的条约。实际情况并非如此，”一名高级官员对英国《金融时报》表示。

If a political declaration is signed at Copenhagen, that is far from the end of the story. Next year, countries will have to meet again many times in order to draft a legally binding treaty containing any commitments agreed here. That process, too, will be fraught. “Some people think that you can just take [any Copenhagen declaration], polish it and turn it into a legally binding treaty. That is not the case,” one senior official told the FT.