哥本哈根峰会：各国都在想什么

本周，来自192个国家的官员将齐聚哥本哈根，探讨如何应对全球气候变化问题，他们将寻求达成一项新的协议，以接替1997年签署的《京都议定书》（Kyoto Protocol）。即便各国在此次会议上无法达成一项具约束力的协议，许多国家也希望至少能够约定减少各国温室气体排放量，并向最有可能受到全球变暖影响冲击的发展中国家提供帮助。

This week, officials from 192 countries will meet in Copenhagen to tackle global climate change, seeking a successor to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol. Even if they can't negotiate a binding agreement, many countries hope at least to work out commitments to reduce their greenhouse-gas emissions and provide assistance to poorer countries likely to be hardest hit by the effects of global warming.

当然，每个国家都有自己特殊的当务之急和种种顾虑。我们不妨看看几个国家针对此次哥本哈根之行的一些议事日程。

Each country, of course, has its own particular priorites and concerns, which is why an agreement is so difficult to reach. Here's a look at some of their agendas for Copenhagen.

美国U.S.

美国未能通过气候变化法案意味着哥本哈根峰会达成协议将被延后。不过，仍在国会有待批准的议案以及奥巴马政府监管温室气体排放量的权力让美国政府树立起可信度，并增加了其谈判的砝码，为最终促成协议定下基础。美国政府可能仍会承诺到2020年美国二氧化碳排放总量下降17%，同时为发展中国家的低碳项目提供资金援助，以使各国达成协议。美国还希望其它国家，主要是中国和印度承诺其温室气体排放量何时达到顶峰，并要求两国政府制定严格的有关报告、监控和核查温室气体排放量和减排量的标准。

The U.S.'s failure to pass climate-change legislation has meant a delay in a deal at Copenhagen. But pending bills in Congress and the Obama administration's authority to regulate emissions give the country credibility -- and negotiating leverage toward an eventual agreement. The U.S. may still pledge to cut emissions about 17% by 2020, while offering funding of low-carbon initiatives for poorer countries to draw them to an agreement. The U.S. also wants other countries, mainly China and India, to commit on when their greenhouse-gas emissions will peak, and will demand stringent standards for reporting, monitoring and verification of emissions and reductions.

中国China

中国已经承诺，到2020年中国单位国内生产总值二氧化碳排放比2005年下降40%-45%。这意味着中国将进行自愿减排，因此，不太可能写进一份有法律约束力的气候变化协议。但是，这也体现了中国对哥本哈根峰会达成协议抱有兴趣，这可能会给中国带来各种好处；中国将从发达国家获得更多的资金援助和技术转让。作为太阳能和风电设备的出口大国，中国还将获得更多的产品需求。让中国政府最为担心的则是结束《京都议定书》有关在发展中国家的减排可以带来可交易的碳排放额度的条款；中国一直是相关机制的最大受益者，其获得的碳排放额度占总量的59%。

China has pledged to curb carbon emissions as a percentage of gross domestic product by 40% to 45% by 2020. These would be voluntary cuts and therefore unlikely to be part of a binding climate-change pact. But it signals China's interest in an agreement at Copenhagen. Such a deal could bring the country benefits: more funding and technology transfers from developed nations, and as an exporter of solar-power and wind-power equipment, increased demand for its products. What China dreads most is the end of Kyoto provisions that grant tradable credits for reducing emissions; China has been the top receiver for the credits, getting 59% of the total.

印度India

印度政府长期以来都在抵制实施碳排放上限。印度说准备在2020年将排放强度削减20%-25%，但不会接受有法律约束力的减排指标。印度辩解称，印度在考虑固定的排放峰值之前，需要发展和经济增长，而发达国家肩负采取更多限制性措施的历史责任，因为它们才是导致几十年来气候遭到损害的罪魁祸首。印度政府也支持利用资金援助和技术转让刺激绿色能源解决方案。近来，印度领导人已经显示出变通的迹象，自印度去年粉碎世界贸易谈判之后，他们急于证明自己不会成为哥本哈根峰会的破坏者。

India, which has long resisted the imposition of carbon-emission caps, says it is ready to cut emissions intensity 20% to 25% by 2020, but won't accept legally binding targets. It argues that it needs development and economic growth before it should consider fixed emission caps and that the developed world has a historic responsibility to take more restrictive measures because it caused decades of atmospheric damage. India also favors financing and technology transfer to boost green energy solutions.

俄罗斯Russia

气候变化问题并非俄罗斯政府议事日程的重点；其注意力集中在旨在推动前苏联时期工业基础设施节能化所需的大量投资上。俄罗斯政府的目标是到2020年将能源效率提高40%。有关外交官称，俄罗斯愿意将碳排放从1990年的水平减少20%到25%。俄罗斯总理普京（Vladimir Putin）则表示，俄罗斯愿意签署后《京都议定书》协议，前提其它国家也要签署此项协议，而且俄罗斯森林对于减少全球二氧化碳排放量的贡献亦被考虑其中。

Climate change isn't high on Russia's agenda; its attention is on the massive investments it needs to make its aging Soviet-era industrial infrastructure more energy-efficient -- with a goal of a 40% improvement in energy efficiency by 2020. Diplomats say the country is willing to reduce emissions between 20% and 25% from 1990 levels. Prime Minister Vladimir Putin says Russia will join a post-Kyoto agreement only if other countries sign up for it and if Russian forests' contribution to reducing global carbon dioxide is taken into account.