迪拜的泡沫是怎样吹起来的

一位女士抱着孩子坐在车里，窗外是世界最高的大楼－迪拜塔

2008年10月金融危机在全球大部分地区肆虐之际，迪拜最大国有开发商的首席执行长却公布了其最新的超级项目：一项耗资380亿美元、包括一座近三分之二英里高摩天大楼的建筑开发项目。

As financial crisis roiled much of the world in October 2008, the head of Dubai's biggest state-owned developer unveiled his latest megaproject: a billion development that would include a tower nearly two-thirds of a mile tall.

当时Nakheel的首席执行长奥唐纳(Chris O'Donnell)在新闻发布会上说，我可以肯定，你们大部分人都在问，我们为什么要推出这个项目，如果你们没有疑问的话，就有问题了。他对与会者说，尽管在修建这座大楼的年月里经济会起起落落，需求会继续大于供应。

'I'm sure most of you are asking why we're launching this, and you'd be mad not to question it,' said the executive, Chris O'Donnell, at a news conference. Though there would be economic ups and downs in the years needed to build the tower, he told listeners, demand would continue to outstrip supply.

他说，市场基本面太强劲了，不会发生崩溃。

'The fundamentals in the market are too strong,' he said. 'There won't be a crash.'

之后，迪拜的住宅房地产价格暴跌了近50%。开发商大幅裁员，取消开发项目。这座摩天大楼的破土动工仪式很早以前就宣布搁置了。长达一年的支出削减上周达到高潮，迪拜政府出人意料地宣布将争取重组迪拜世界(Dubai World)的260亿美元债务。迪拜世界是政府很多港口、基础设施和房地产公司的控股公司。

Since then, residential real-estate prices in Dubai have slumped by almost 50%. Developers have slashed jobs and scrapped projects. Groundbreaking on the tower was long ago put on hold. The yearlong retrenchment culminated in last week's surprise announcement that Dubai would seek to restructure billion of debts owed by Dubai World, the holding company for many of the government's port, infrastructure and real-estate businesses.

在这场动荡背后是世界上最严重的楼市泡沫之一。在阿联酋，约有价值4,300亿美元的建筑项目被取消。阿联酋位于沙漠地区，人口只有450万人，面积尚不及美国的南卡罗来纳州。据地区项目追踪杂志《中东经济文摘》(Middle East Economic Digest)估计，其中大部分取消的项目都在酋长国迪拜。

Behind this jolt was one of the world's most concentrated property bubbles. Some 0 billion worth of construction projects have been scrapped across the United Arab Emirates, a desert country with a population of just 4.5 million and an area smaller than South Carolina. The majority were slated for the emirate of Dubai, according to estimates by the Middle East Economic Digest, a regional projects tracker.

宽松的信贷、投机者泛滥而缺乏监管的市场、以及迪拜官员们的鼓吹，这些因素都助长了泡沫的增大，包括世袭的酋长马克图姆(Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum)。

The boom was fueled by easy credit, a poorly regulated market overrun by speculators, and cheerleading from Dubai officials -- including the hereditary ruler, Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum.

马克图姆对迪拜的设想──一个向世界敞开胸怀、宽容而现代的都市，它的很多信念和繁荣──长期以来一直令保守的阿拉伯邻国恼怒不已，包括阿联酋保守的首都阿布扎比的一些官员。不过对其他人来说，迪拜则是一种象征──如果一个现代的阿拉伯国家接纳了西方及其金融体系的话，可能实现怎样辉煌的成就。美国总统奥巴马6月份在开罗对穆斯林世界发表演讲时，特别提到迪拜是经济发展发挥成效的地方。

His vision for the city -- a tolerant, modern metropolis open to the world, its many faiths and some of its excesses -- has long rankled conservative Arab neighbors, including some officials in Abu Dhabi, the buttoned-down capital of the U.A.E. But for others, Dubai became a symbol of what a modern Arab state might achieve if it embraced the West and its financial system. President Barack Obama, in a June speech to the Muslim world in Cairo, singled out Dubai as a place where economic development worked.

迪拜高耸的摩天大楼是该国自豪感的象征。在本周的国庆游行中，身着传统阿拉伯长袍的男人们推着载有迪拜标志性建筑模型的彩车。其中有将于下个月开始运营的世界最高的大楼迪拜塔(Burj Dubai)、帆船形状的迪拜帆船酒店(Burj Al Arab)和设有室内滑雪道的阿联酋购物中心(Mall of the Emirates)。

Dubai's soaring skyline is a symbol of pride here. At a National Day parade this week, men dressed in traditional Arab garb pushed floats consisting of scale models of the city's iconic buildings. There were models of the Burj Dubai -- the world's tallest skyscraper, due to open next month -- as well as the sail-shaped Burj Al Arab hotel and the Mall of the Emirates, which houses an indoor ski slope.

哈马迪(Ahmed Al Hammadi)观看着国庆游行说，我们的领导人能够实现这一切。至于眼下的债务危机，他说，我们会以更强大的姿态走出危机。

'Our leaders have been able to achieve all of this,' said Ahmed Al Hammadi, watching the parade. As for the current debt crisis, 'we will come out of it stronger,' he said.

官员和开发商们为这种飞速的建设速度寻找理由，说这是因为迪拜紧邻亚洲和欧洲、不用交税、民风宽容，还是这一地区的商业枢纽。鉴于迪拜对追逐大型项目似乎毫无限制，外国企业高管、建筑师和房地产经纪商纷纷涌入这里。国际债务和房地产投资者也听信了这个美梦，直到全球金融市场冻结、世界大部分地区跌入了衰退。之后，买家开始寻求救助，雇主裁员，企业暂停扩张计划。

Officials and developers justified the breakneck pace at which these were built by touting Dubai's proximity to both Asia and Europe, its tax-free and tolerant way of life and its position as the region's business hub. Foreign executives, architects and real-estate brokers flocked here for the seemingly limitless scope to pursue big projects. International debt and property investors bought into the dream, too, until global financial markets seized up and much of the world plunged into recession. Then, buyers began to bail out, employers shed staff and companies put expansion on hold.

结果是造成了惊人的房屋积压。在贯穿迪拜摩天大楼间的超级高速公路Sheikh Zayed的沿线，数十座新近完工的建筑的外立面上都挂着“出租”的广告牌。据国际房地产经纪公司高力国际(Colliers International)的数据，新建筑的空置率在41%。

The result is a jaw-dropping real-estate overhang. 'To Let' signboards adorn the facades of dozens of recently finished buildings along Sheikh Zayed Road, the superhighway that cuts through the city's canyon of skyscrapers. Office vacancies in new buildings run at 41%, according to international property agency Colliers International.

上周，迪拜政府大出市场意料地宣布将把迪拜世界的债务偿还延期6个月甚至更长；本周二早间又说，将开始针对迪拜世界债务的分阶段重组计划，包括与Nakheel有关的60亿美元债务。迪拜政府说，重组将包括对“去杠杆化选择”的评估，包括资产出售。迪拜世界说，已经开始与银行进行磋商，并在“有建设性的”基础上推进。

After taking markets by surprise last week with a request to delay debt payments at Dubai World by six months or more, the government here said early Tuesday it would begin a multiphase restructuring effort aimed at the company's debt, including billion related to Nakheel's lending. It said the restucturing would include the assessment of 'deleveraging options,' including asset sales. Dubai World said it had started discussions with its banks and these were proceeding on a 'constructive basis.'

国际证券市场在恐慌过后恢复了正常，但这一事件带来的影响并不只限于金融领域。迪拜债务事件似乎为迪拜和阿联酋首都阿布扎比之间撕开了一道新裂痕。知情人士说，阿布扎比的联邦官员非常愤怒，因为关于迪拜决定寻求延期偿债一事，他们一直蒙在鼓里。这一裂痕可能会给美国在波斯湾的一个重要盟友带来冲击，因为迪拜是伊朗企业的再出口枢纽和海外金融中心，被视为美国孤立伊朗举措的关键。

International securities markets recovered their poise after a scare, but the effects aren't just financial. The debt announcement appeared to open a fresh rift between Dubai and U.A.E. capital Abu Dhabi. Federal officials there were livid at being left in the dark by Dubai's decision to seek a debt standstill, say people familiar with the situation. The rift has the potential to unsettle an important U.S. ally in the Persian Gulf, because Dubai, as a re-export hub and offshore financial center for Iranian businesses, is seen as key to U.S. efforts to isolate Iran.

迪拜和阿布扎比官员近日来已经强调了团结。不过，虽然阿联酋联邦政府今年早些时候为迪拜公司推出了100亿美元的救助计划，但他们目前尚未介入为迪拜世界提供援助。

Dubai and Abu Dhabi officials have underscored unity in recent days. But while the U.A.E. federal government orchestrated a billion bailout earlier this year for Dubai companies, it hasn't stepped in to offer assistance to Dubai World.

迪拜的增长开始于上世纪八十年代初，当时面临着石油资源逐渐萎缩的局面，马克图姆和他父亲努力推动经济多样化。迪拜建造了奢华的海边酒店，以吸引来自印度、亚洲和中东的富有游客，以及来自欧洲和俄罗斯的旅游团。2002年，马克图姆允许外资进入迪拜部分房地产开发项目。仅凭藉着一本宣传册以及一张平面图，购房者就开始将大笔存款投入数年内都难以交付的迪拜联排别墅、公寓以及别墅项目。

Dubai's growth began in the early 1980s when Sheikh Mohammed and his father pushed to diversify the economy in the face of dwindling oil. Dubai built luxury beachside hotels to lure wealthy visitors from India, Asia and the Middle East, plus package tours from Europe and Russia. In 2002, Sheik Mohammed opened the door to foreign ownership of property in certain developments. With little more than a brochure and a floor plan, buyers began to slap down deposits on townhouses, apartments and villas that wouldn't be ready for years.

2006年，马克图姆将数家政府企业合并到了迪拜世界控股公司中，由苏拉耶(Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem)出任董事长。相应地，苏拉耶从澳大利亚请来了奥唐纳负责Nakheel，奥唐纳原本在澳大利亚领导着一家增长迅速的房地产基金。

In 2006, Sheik Mohammed consolidated a handful of government businesses into the Dubai World holding company, with Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem as its leader. To head Nakheel, Mr. Sulayem, in turn, plucked Mr. O'Donnell from Australia, where he headed a fast-growing property fund.

苏拉耶和奥唐纳拒绝对本文置评。Nakheel一位发言人没有回复记者通过电子邮件发送的问题，马克图姆的发言人同样如此。

Messrs. Sulayem and O'Donnell declined to comment for this article. A spokesman for Nakheel didn't respond to emailed questions, nor did a spokesman for Dubai's ruler.

Nakheel当时势头很猛，准备推出棕榈岛开发项目的第一期项目朱美拉棕榈岛(Palm Jumeirah)，并正在规划接下来两个项目。2006年9月，在一个另外占地914公顷被称为朱美拉公园(Jumeirah Park)的住宅项目，65.4万美元起售的别墅在一天之内就售罄。来自国际银行和当地银行的贷款达到了购买价的97%。

Nakheel was on a roll, preparing to open the first of the palm developments, Palm Jumeirah, and planning the next two. In September 2006, at a separate, 914-acre residential community called Jumeirah Park, villas starting at 4,000 sold out in a day. International banks and local lenders offered loans for up to 97% of the purchase price.

为了帮助融资建造所有这些工程，奥唐纳转向了债券市场。2006年11月的一个投资者见面会称迪拜是一个“有利的介入点”，能够吸引来自从印度到埃及的广阔中东地区的商人；其预计当时不到120万人的迪拜人口将在14年内增加200万人。

To help finance all this construction, Mr. O'Donnell turned to the bond markets. An investor presentation in November 2006 called Dubai a 'vantage access point' that would draw in businessmen from a wide swath of the greater Middle East, from India to Egypt. It projected that Dubai's population, then just under 1.2 million, would grow by two million in 14 years.

投资者争先购买Nakheel发行的伊斯兰债券。受强劲需求推动，发行方随后将债券发行规模提高到了35亿美元。

Investors rushed to buy a piece of Nakheel's Islamic bond, known as a sukuk. Swamped by demand, the borrower increased the issue's size to .5 billion.

汤森路透(Thomson Reuters)提供的数据显示，2006年迪拜房地产行业通过债券和银团贷款筹集了49亿美元。2008年，迪拜房地产业的借款规模飙升到了304亿美元。

That year, Dubai's real-estate sector raised .9 billion through bonds and syndicated loans, according to data provided by Thomson Reuters. Real-estate borrowing soared in 2008 to .4 billion.

2007年，迪拜世界的一家分公司购买了豪华邮轮“英国女王伊丽莎白二世号”(Queen Elizabeth 2)，计划将这艘邮轮停靠在朱美拉棕榈岛，将其改造成一家豪华酒店。那时，房地产市场的裂缝正在形成。当地官员们此前很少出台可能限制投机活动的地产开发管理规定。由于担心房地产市场已经增长过热，他们也开始这么做了。2008年初，迪拜政府开始对一些大型房地产和金融机构展开了一系列高规格腐败案调查。

In 2007, a Dubai World affiliate bought the Queen Elizabeth 2, unveiling plans to moor the ocean liner at the Palm Jumeirah and turn it into a luxury hotel. By then, cracks in the real-estate market were forming. Officials had put few regulations on development that might limit the speculation. Now, concerned that the market had grown overheated, they did so. And in early 2008, authorities embarked on a series of high-profile corruption investigations at some big real-estate and finance firms.

不过警方、法院以及这些公司本身很少透露调查信息。由于缺乏透明度，打击腐败不但没有安抚投资者，反而令他们感到担心。

But police, courts and the companies themselves disclosed little about the probes. As a result of the lack of transparency, the crackdown on corruption, instead of comforting investors, spooked them.

迈阿密律师迪亚茨(Michael Diaz)说，投资者完全不信任这一体系；他在迪拜设有办事处。迪拜和阿联酋官员们说，他们已经采取措施改进司法体系。

But police, courts and the companies themselves disclosed little about the probes. As a result of the lack of transparency, the crackdown on corruption, instead of comforting investors, spooked them.

2008年4月，当地警方拘捕了迪拜一家主要房地产商的美籍黎巴嫩首席执行长。等到媒体报导之后，该公司才披露了此事。该首席执行长否认有不当行为。

In April 2008, police detained the Lebanese-American chief executive of one of Dubai's top developers. The company didn't disclose the arrest until after it was reported in the press. He denied wrongdoing

随后警方又拘捕了包括Nakheel在内的迪拜一些最大公司的高管。Nakheel一位发言人没有回复记者通过电子邮件发送的关于调查案的质询。

A string of other detentions followed at some of Dubai's biggest companies, including Nakheel. A Nakheel spokesman didn't answer emailed questions about the probe.

就在这些拘捕事件围绕着不确定性之际，全球其他地区爆发的危机也波及到了迪拜。全球信贷市场在2008年底冻结后，国际投资者不再购买迪拜房地产。一些投资者已经停止了分期付款。Nakheel和其他公司进行了裁员，取消或推迟了数十个开发项目。

Amid the uncertainty surrounding the arrests, the crisis roiling the rest of the world was catching up with Dubai. When global credit markets froze up in late 2008, international investors stopped buying Dubai property. Some who had already bought stopped making installment payments. Nakheel and others shed staff and scrapped or delayed dozens of projects.