迪拜：摩天大楼林立的危机之地

2008年10月金融危机在全球大部分地区肆虐之际，迪拜最大国有开发商的首席执行长却公布了其最新的超级项目：一项耗资380亿美元、包括一座近三分之二英里高摩天大楼的建筑开发项目。

As financial crisis roiled much of the world in October 2008, the head of Dubai's biggest state-owned developer unveiled his latest megaproject: a billion development that would include a tower nearly two-thirds of a mile tall.

当时Nakheel的首席执行长奥唐纳(Chris O'Donnell)在新闻发布会上说，我可以肯定，你们大部分人都在问，我们为什么要推出这个项目，如果你们没有疑问的话，就有问题了。他对与会者说，尽管在修建这座大楼的年月里经济会起起落落，需求会继续大于供应。

'I'm sure most of you are asking why we're launching this, and you'd be mad not to question it,' said the executive, Chris O'Donnell, at a news conference. Though there would be economic ups and downs in the years needed to build the tower, he told listeners, demand would continue to outstrip supply.

他说，市场基本面太强劲了，不会发生崩溃。

'The fundamentals in the market are too strong,' he said. 'There won't be a crash.'

之后，迪拜的住宅房地产价格暴跌了近50%。开发商大幅裁员，取消开发项目。这座摩天大楼的破土动工仪式很早以前就宣布搁置了。长达一年的支出削减上周达到高潮，迪拜政府出人意料地宣布将争取重组迪拜世界(Dubai World)的260亿美元债务。迪拜世界是政府很多港口、基础设施和房地产公司的控股公司。

Since then, residential real-estate prices in Dubai have slumped by almost 50%. Developers have slashed jobs and scrapped projects. Groundbreaking on the tower was long ago put on hold. The yearlong retrenchment culminated in last week's surprise announcement that Dubai would seek to restructure billion of debts owed by Dubai World, the holding company for many of the government's port, infrastructure and real-estate businesses.

在这场动荡背后是世界上最严重的楼市泡沫之一。在阿联酋，约有价值4,300亿美元的建筑项目被取消。阿联酋位于沙漠地区，人口只有450万人，面积尚不及美国的南卡罗来纳州。据地区项目追踪杂志《中东经济文摘》(Middle East Economic Digest)估计，其中大部分取消的项目都在酋长国迪拜。

Behind this jolt was one of the world's most concentrated property bubbles. Some 0 billion worth of construction projects have been scrapped across the United Arab Emirates, a desert country with a population of just 4.5 million and an area smaller than South Carolina. The majority were slated for the emirate of Dubai, according to estimates by the Middle East Economic Digest, a regional projects tracker.

宽松的信贷、投机者泛滥而缺乏监管的市场、以及迪拜官员们的鼓吹，这些因素都助长了泡沫的增大，包括世袭的酋长马克图姆(Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum)。

The boom was fueled by easy credit, a poorly regulated market overrun by speculators, and cheerleading from Dubai officials -- including the hereditary ruler, Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum.

马克图姆对迪拜的设想──一个向世界敞开胸怀、宽容而现代的都市，它的很多信念和繁荣──长期以来一直令保守的阿拉伯邻国恼怒不已，包括阿联酋保守的首都阿不扎比的一些官员。不过对其他人来说，迪拜则是一种象征──如果一个现代的阿拉伯国家接纳了西方及其金融体系的话，可能实现怎样辉煌的成就。美国总统奥巴马6月份在开罗对穆斯林世界发表演讲时，特别提到迪拜是经济发展发挥成效的地方。

His vision for the city -- a tolerant, modern metropolis open to the world, its many faiths and some of its excesses -- has long rankled conservative Arab neighbors, including some officials in Abu Dhabi, the buttoned-down capital of the U.A.E. But for others, Dubai became a symbol of what a modern Arab state might achieve if it embraced the West and its financial system. President Barack Obama, in a June speech to the Muslim world in Cairo, singled out Dubai as a place where economic development worked.

迪拜高耸的摩天大楼是该国自豪感的象征。在本周的国庆游行中，身着传统阿拉伯长袍的男人们推着载有迪拜标志性建筑模型的彩车。其中有将于下个月开始运营的世界最高的大楼迪拜塔(Burj Dubai)、帆船形状的迪拜帆船酒店(Burj Al Arab)和设有室内滑雪道的阿联酋购物中心(Mall of the Emirates)。

Dubai's soaring skyline is a symbol of pride here. At a National Day parade this week, men dressed in traditional Arab garb pushed floats consisting of scale models of the city's iconic buildings. There were models of the Burj Dubai -- the world's tallest skyscraper, due to open next month -- as well as the sail-shaped Burj Al Arab hotel and the Mall of the Emirates, which houses an indoor ski slope.

哈马迪(Ahmed Al Hammadi)观看着国庆游行说，我们的领导人能够实现这一切。至于眼下的债务危机，他说，我们会以更强大的姿态走出危机。

'Our leaders have been able to achieve all of this,' said Ahmed Al Hammadi, watching the parade. As for the current debt crisis, 'we will come out of it stronger,' he said.

官员和开发商们为这种飞速的建设速度寻找理由，说这是因为迪拜紧邻亚洲和欧洲、不用交税、民风宽容，还是这一地区的商业枢纽。鉴于迪拜对追逐大型项目似乎毫无限制，外国企业高管、建筑师和房地产经纪商纷纷涌入这里。国际债务和房地产投资者也听信了这个美梦，直到全球金融市场冻结、世界大部分地区跌入了衰退。之后，买家开始寻求救助，雇主裁员，企业暂停扩张计划。

Officials and developers justified the breakneck pace at which these were built by touting Dubai's proximity to both Asia and Europe, its tax-free and tolerant way of life and its position as the region's business hub. Foreign executives, architects and real-estate brokers flocked here for the seemingly limitless scope to pursue big projects. International debt and property investors bought into the dream, too, until global financial markets seized up and much of the world plunged into recession. Then, buyers began to bail out, employers shed staff and companies put expansion on hold.

结果是造成了惊人的房屋积压。在贯穿迪拜摩天大楼间的超级高速公路Sheikh Zayed的沿线，数十座新近完工的建筑的外立面上都挂着“出租”的广告牌。据国际房地产经纪公司高力国际(Colliers International)的数据，新建筑的空置率在41%。

The result is a jaw-dropping real-estate overhang. 'To Let' signboards adorn the facades of dozens of recently finished buildings along Sheikh Zayed Road, the superhighway that cuts through the city's canyon of skyscrapers. Office vacancies in new buildings run at 41%, according to international property agency Colliers International.

上周，迪拜政府大出市场意料地宣布将把迪拜世界的债务偿还延期6个月甚至更长；本周二早间又说，将开始针对迪拜世界债务的分阶段重组计划，包括与Nakheel有关的60亿美元债务。迪拜政府说，重组将包括对“去杠杆化选择”的评估，包括资产出售。迪拜世界说，已经开始与银行进行磋商，并在“有建设性的”基础上推进。

After taking markets by surprise last week with a request to delay debt payments at Dubai World by six months or more, the government here said early Tuesday it would begin a multiphase restructuring effort aimed at the company's debt, including billion related to Nakheel's lending. It said the restucturing would include the assessment of 'deleveraging options,' including asset sales. Dubai World said it had started discussions with its banks and these were proceeding on a 'constructive basis.'