美联储准备让经济运行得更热

美联储准备让经济运行得更热

The Federal Reserve knows that "higher prices for essential items such as food, gasoline and shelter add to the burdens faced by many families," Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said. But he noted that ultra-low inflation or deflation is also a threat.

美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，美联储知道"食品、汽油和住房等必需品价格上涨，加重了许多家庭的负担。"但他指出，超低通胀或通缩也是一个威胁。

The Federal Reserve is adjusting its long-term policy on inflation and employment, and says it will no longer tap the brakes preemptively to prevent the economy from overheating.

美联储正在调整其有关通胀和就业的长期政策，并表示将不再为防止经济过热而先发制人地踩刹车。

For decades after the price hikes of the 1970s, the central bank was on high alert for inflation, raising interest rates whenever unemployment fell "too low," on the theory that would spark runaway prices.

在20世纪70年代的物价上涨之后的几十年里，中央银行一直对通货膨胀保持高度警惕，只要失业率“过低”，就会提高利率，其理论依据是这会引发物价失控。

But in recent years, the Fed has been more concerned with prices that aren't rising fast enough. Inflation has remained stubbornly below the Fed's 2% target, even when unemployment was at half-century lows.

但近年来，美联储更关心的是价格上涨的速度不够快。即使失业率处于半个世纪以来的最低水平，通货膨胀仍然顽固地保持在美联储2%的目标之下。

Under the new policy, which was approved unanimously by the central bank's rate-setting committee, the Fed will not concern itself with an employment picture that is too strong, only a job market that is too weak. And after a long period of inflation that's too low, the Fed will tolerate a period of higher prices, in order to achieve an average inflation rate of 2%.

根据这项由央行利率制定委员会一致通过的新政策，美联储将不再关注过于强势的就业形势，而只关心过于疲软的就业市场。在经历了很长一段时间过低的通货膨胀后，为了达到2%的平均通胀率，美联储将容忍一段时间的高价格。

In announcing the policy changes, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged that inflation remains an unwelcome boogeyman for many.

在宣布政策变化时，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔承认，通胀对许多人来说仍是一个不受欢迎的恶魔。

"We are certainly mindful that higher prices for essential items such as food, gasoline and shelter add to the burdens faced by many families, especially those struggling with lost jobs and incomes," Powell said.

鲍威尔说:“我们当然知道，食品、汽油和住房等生活必需品价格上涨，增加了许多家庭的负担，特别是那些失去工作和收入的家庭。”

But in a virtual address to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's annual policy conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo., Powell noted that ultra-low inflation or deflation is also a threat, driving down interest rates and leaving the central bank less room to maneuver in an economic crisis.

但鲍威尔在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔堪萨斯城联邦储备银行的年度政策会议上发表虚拟讲话时指出，超低通胀或通缩也是一种威胁，推低了利率，使央行在经济危机中没有回旋余地。

Years of strong job growth have also shown that the traditional assumption that low unemployment sparks rising prices no longer holds.

多年的强劲就业增长也表明，低失业率引发物价上涨的传统假设不再成立。

"The historically strong labor market did not trigger a significant rise in inflation," Powell said.

"历来强劲的就业市场并未引发通胀大幅上升，" 鲍威尔说。

"Many who had been left behind for too long were finding jobs, benefiting their families and communities, and increasing the productive capacity of our economy," Powell said. "It is hard to overstate the benefits of sustaining a strong labor market."

鲍威尔说：“许多被抛在后面太久的人正在寻找工作，使他们的家庭和社区受益，并提高我们经济的生产能力。”维持一个强劲的劳动力市场的好处怎么说都不为过。”

Those gains were largely wiped out by the coronavirus pandemic, which has disproportionately affected low-income workers. The unemployment rate, which was 3.5% in February, soared close to 15% in April and remains 10.2% today.

这些成果在很大程度上被冠状病毒流行病所抵消，这种病毒对低收入工人造成不成比例的影响。2月份的失业率为3.5%，4月份飙升至近15%，目前仍保持在10.2%。

The Fed expects unemployment to remain above 9% for the rest of this year. But the new policy, which was largely crafted before the pandemic, offers a guide the central bank can use when the economy returns to something approaching full employment.

美联储预计，在今年余下的时间里，失业率将保持在9%以上。但这一新政策基本上是在流行病之前制定的，它为央行在经济恢复到接近充分就业的水平时提供了可以使用的指导。

"Of course, when employment is below its maximum level, as is clearly the case now, we will actively seek to minimize that shortfall by using our tools to support economic growth and job creation," Powell said.

鲍威尔说:“当然，当就业低于最高水平时，就像现在很明显的情况一样，我们将利用我们的工具来支持经济增长和创造就业机会，积极寻求将这个缺口最小化。”