美国面临洪灾风险的房屋比此前已知的多出数百万

美国面临洪灾风险的房屋比此前已知的多出数百万

Millions more properties than previously known across the US are at substantial risk of flooding. And as climate change accelerates, many more will see their flood risk grow.

在美国，面临洪水威胁的房屋比之前已知的多出数百万。随着气候变化加速，更多的人面临的洪水风险将增加。

Those are the findings of a comprehensive new analysis by the First Street Foundation, a nonprofit research and technology group that experts say has put together the fullest picture yet of the country's growing vulnerability to flooding.

这是非营利研究和技术组织第一街基金会一项全面的新分析的结果。专家们说，该组织对美国日益脆弱的洪灾做出了最全面的分析。

Today, around 8.7 million properties are located in Special Flood Hazard Areas as determined by FEMA's flood maps, the legal standard used in the US to manage floodplains, determine insurance requirements and price policy premiums.

如今，约870万处房屋位于美国联邦应急管理局(FEMA)洪水地图确定的特殊洪水危险区，这是美国管理洪泛区、确定保险要求和保险费率的法律标准。

But as many as 14.6 million properties -- nearly 70% more than are in FEMA's Special Flood Hazard Areas -- may actually be at significant risk of flooding, according to First Street's modeling. The discrepancy between FEMA's maps and this new data means that some 6 million property owners could be unaware of their current flood risk, the group says.

但是，根据第一街(基金会)的模型，有多达1460万的房屋——比联邦应急管理局的特殊洪水危险区高出近70%——实际上可能面临严重的洪水风险。该组织说，联邦应急管理局的地图和这个新数据之间的差异意味着大约600万业主可能没有意识到他们目前的洪水风险。

"If you're a homeowner, renter or buyer in this country and you want to understand flood risk, the only data that's available to you are the FEMA flood maps," said Matthew Eby, First Street's founder and executive director. "And the FEMA flood maps are made to determine flood insurance rates -- not necessarily to determine what your personal flood risk is."

第一街(基金会)的创始人和执行董事马修·埃比说:“如果你是这个国家的房主、租房者或购房者，你想了解洪水风险，你唯一能得到的数据就是联邦应急管理局的洪水地图。”“联邦应急管理署的洪水地图是用来确定洪水保险费率的，而不是用来确定你个人的洪水风险。”

As climate change raises sea levels and leads to more extreme rainfall events, even more homeowners will have to contend with the threat of flooding.

随着气候变化导致海平面上升和更多极端降雨事件，更多的房主将不得不应对洪水的威胁。

First Street found that by 2050, the number of properties at significant risk of flooding is expected to climb even further to 16.2 million.

第一街(基金会)发现，到2050年，面临严重洪灾风险的房屋数量预计将进一步攀升至1620万。

The issue is already growing in urgency, as huge swaths of the country have been inundated by devastating floods in recent years.

这个问题已经变得迫在眉睫,因为近年来,该国的大片地区已经被毁灭性的洪水所淹没。

Flooding is now the most common and costly natural disaster in the US, causing some $155 billion in property damages in the last decade, according to Michael Grimm, the assistant administrator for risk management for the Federal Insurance and Mitigation Administration, who testified before the House Science Committee in February.

美国联邦保险与减灾署负责风险管理的助理署长迈克尔•格里姆今年2月在众议院科学委员会作证时说，洪灾目前是美国最常见、成本最高的自然灾害，过去10年造成约1550亿美元的财产损失。

Last year, many parts of the Midwest and South were swamped by flood waters that lingered for months and caused $6.2 billion in damages and four deaths, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

根据美国国家海洋和大气管理局(NOAA)的数据，去年，中西部和南部的许多地区被洪水淹没，洪水持续了数月，造成62亿美元的损失和4人死亡。

In 2017, Hurricane Harvey, a powerful Category 4 storm, dumped a record-breaking 51 inches of rain on parts of Texas, putting large parts of Houston underwater. But about half of the homes in Houston affected by flooding were outside mapped floodplains, according to a National Academy of Sciences report on urban flooding.

2017年，威力强大的4级飓风哈维(Harvey)给德克萨斯州部分地区带来了创纪录的51英寸(约合54厘米)的降雨，使休斯顿的大部分地区被淹没。但根据美国国家科学院关于城市洪水的报告，休斯顿受洪水影响的房屋中，约有一半位于地图绘制的洪泛区之外。

Right now, First Street's flood models show that the states with the greatest proportion of properties currently at substantial risk are West Virginia, Louisiana, Florida, Idaho and Montana.

目前，第一街(基金会)的洪水模型显示，目前面临重大风险的房屋比例最大的州是西弗吉尼亚、路易斯安那、佛罗里达、爱达荷和蒙大拿。

In the future, changing precipitation patterns will continue to cause problems for many inland towns and cities.

今后，变化的降水模式将继续给许多内陆城镇带来问题。

But as the climate changes, the combined threats of storm surge from hurricanes and sea level rise means flooding will be most dramatic in coastal areas, First Street found.

但第一街(基金会)发现，随着气候变化，飓风带来的风暴潮和海平面上升的双重威胁意味着，沿海地区的洪水将最为严重。