如果疫苗不能尽快研制，美国的社会距离可能得持续到2022年

如果疫苗不能尽快研制，美国的社会距离可能得持续到2022年

This may be the new normal for quite a while.

这可能是相当长一段时间内的新常态。

The US may have to endure social distancing measures -- such as stay-at-home orders and school closures -- until 2022. researchers projected on Tuesday. That is, unless, a vaccine becomes quickly available.

研究人员周二预测，美国可能不得不忍受社会距离措施，直到2022年，比如在居家令和停课。除非能迅速研制出疫苗。

The team at the Harvard School of Public Health used what's known about Covid-19 and other coronaviruses to create possible scenarios of the current pandemic.

哈佛大学公共卫生学院的研究小组利用已知的Covid-19和其他冠状病毒，创造了当前大流行的可能情景。

"Intermittent distancing may be required into 2022 unless critical care capacity is increased substantially or a treatment or vaccine becomes available," they wrote in their report. "Even in the event of apparent elimination, SARS-CoV-2 surveillance should be maintained since a resurgence in contagion could be possible as late as 2024."

他们在报告中写道：“除非重症监护能力大幅提高，或者有治疗或疫苗可用，否则间歇性的社会距离措施可能持续到2022年。”即使在(病毒)明显消除的情况下，也应保持对SARS-CoV-2的监测，因为传染病可能最迟在2024年重新出现。”

The Harvard team's projections also indicate that the virus would come roaring back fairly quickly once restrictions were lifted.

哈佛研究小组的预测还表明，一旦解除限制，病毒将迅速卷土重来。

"If intermittent distancing is the approach that's chosen, it may be necessary to do it for several years, which is obviously a very long time," Dr. Marc Lipsitch, an author on the study and an epidemiology professor at the Harvard School of Public Health, told reporters.

哈佛大学公共卫生学院的流行病学教授、该研究的作者马克·利普西奇博士告诉记者，“如果选择间歇性地保持距离的方法，那么可能需要持续好几年，这显然是一段很长的时间。”

Another important factor: Whether people become immune to the new coronavirus after they have been infected. That's not yet known.

另一个重要因素是:人们在感染新冠状病毒后是否会产生免疫。这还不清楚。

Potential challenges include finding a reliable test to determine who has antibodies for the coronavirus, establishing the level of immunity conferred by previous infection and how long it lasts, and the capacity of overstretched health systems to carry out reliable, widespread antibody tests in the general population.

潜在的挑战包括找到一种可靠的检测方法来确定谁有冠状病毒抗体，确定先前感染所产生的免疫水平及其持续时间，以及过度紧张的卫生系统在普通人群中进行可靠、广泛的抗体检测的能力。

The study researchers say they are aware that such prolonged distancing, even if intermittent, would likely have "profoundly negative economic, social, and educational consequences."

研究人员表示，他们意识到，这种持续的社会距离，即使是间歇性的，也可能会“对经济、社会和教育产生深远的负面影响”。

They hope their research will help identify likely trajectories of the epidemic under alternative approaches, identify complementary ways to fight it, and to spur further thinking about ways to get the pandemic under control.

他们希望他们的研究将有助于在其他方法下确定这种流行病的可能轨迹，确定防治这种流行病的补充方法，并促使人们进一步思考如何控制这种流行病。

Though coronavirus cases in the US have been soaring, social distancing appears to be effective.

尽管美国的冠状病毒病例一直在飙升，但保持社会距离似乎是有效的。

Social distancing is "one of the most powerful weapons" against COVID-19. said Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

美国疾病控制与预防中心主任罗伯特·雷德菲尔德说，与他人保持距离是对付COVID-19的“最有力武器之一”。

"If we can just maximize that social distancing, we can limit this virus's ability," he said earlier this month.

“如果我们能最大限度地扩大这种社会距离，我们就能限制这种病毒的能力，”他本月早些时候说。

States across the country have issued stay-at-home orders, allowing only for essential errands or tasks.

全国各州都发布了“居家令”，只允许执行基本的差事或任务。

Penalties for breaking the order vary by state. In Maine, the penalty for breaking the order can be up to six months in jail and up to a $1.000 fine.

各州对破坏秩序的处罚各不相同。在缅因州，违反禁令的最高处罚是6个月监禁和1000美元罚款。

In Florida, a pastor was arrested last month for continuing to hold large services and is charged with unlawful assembly and violation of public health emergency rules, both second-degree misdemeanors.

在佛罗里达州，一名牧师上个月因继续举行大型宗教活动而被捕，他被控非法集会和违反公共卫生紧急规则，这两项罪名都属于二级轻罪。

This week, states on the East and West coasts announced they are forming their own regional pacts to work together on how to reopen after the stay-at-home orders.

本周，东海岸和西海岸的各州宣布，它们正在形成各自的区域协议，共同研究如何在“居家令”(解除)之后重新开放。

New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Rhode Island and Massachusetts each plan to name a public health and economic official to a regional working group.

纽约州、新泽西州、康涅狄格州、宾夕法尼亚州、特拉华州、罗德岛州和马萨诸塞州都计划任命一名公共卫生和经济官员，组成一个地区工作组。

West Coast states of California, Washington and Oregon also announced they are joining forces in a plan to begin incremental release of stay-at-home orders.

美国西海岸的加利福尼亚州、华盛顿州和俄勒冈州也宣布，他们将联手实施一项计划，开始逐步解除“居家令”。