研究表明，冠状病毒的死亡率比以前报道的要低

研究表明，冠状病毒的死亡率比以前报道的要低

How many people die after being infected with the novel coronavirus? Fewer than previously calculated, according to a study released Monday, but still more than die from the flu.

有多少人在感染新型冠状病毒后死亡?根据周一发布的一项研究，死亡人数比之前估计的要少，但仍然比死于流感的人数要多。

The research, published in the medical journal The Lancet Infectious Diseases, estimated that about 0.66% of those infected with the virus will die.

这项发表在医学杂志《柳叶刀传染病》上的研究估计，约0.66%的感染者将死亡。

That coronavirus death rate, which is lower than earlier estimates, takes into account potentially milder cases that often go undiagnosed -- but it's still far higher than the 0.1% of people who are killed by the flu.

冠状病毒的死亡率比先前估计的要低，考虑到了通常未被确诊的可能更轻微的病例，但仍然远远高于0.1%的流感死亡人数。

When undetected infections aren't taken into account, the Lancet study found that the coronavirus death rate was 1.38%, which is more consistent with earlier reports.

《柳叶刀》杂志的研究发现，如果不考虑未被发现的感染，冠状病毒的死亡率为1.38%，这与之前的报告更为一致。

Early in March, for example, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the director of the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said that "if you just do the math, the math is about 2%."

例如，今年3月初，美国国家过敏和传染病研究所所长安东尼·福奇博士说，“如果你只是计算一下，这个数字大约是2%。”

But he emphasized that the number could go down, saying that "as a group it's going to depend completely on what the factor of asymptomatic cases are."

但他强调，这个数字可能会下降，他说，“作为一个群体，它将完全取决于无症状病例的因素是什么。”

That's because death rates typically only consider reported coronavirus cases, which tend to be more severe, and thus brought to the attention of health care workers. Asymptomatic cases -- or mild cases -- may not always be counted.

这是因为死亡率通常只考虑报告的冠状病毒病例，这些病例往往更严重，因此引起了卫生保健工作者的注意。无症状的病例或轻微的病例,可能并不总是被计算在内。

In this study, researchers tried to estimate the true "infection fatality rate." In other words, out of everybody infected -- not just those sick enough to get tested -- how many people will die?

在这项研究中，研究人员试图估算真正的“感染致死率”。换句话说，所有被感染的人——不仅仅是那些病到需要检测的人——有多少人会死亡?

Researchers combined that data on "infection prevalence" with public information on reported cases and deaths, estimating the overall death rate to be about two-thirds of 1%.

研究人员将有关“感染流行率”的数据与报告病例和死亡的公共信息结合起来，估计总体死亡率约为1%的三分之二。

That number, though, went up in older adults, with approximately 7.8% of those 80 or older estimated to die after infection. And deaths were estimated to be exceedingly rare in children younger than 9. with a fatality rate of just 0.00161%.

不过，这一数字在老年人中有所上升，估计80岁以上的老年人中约有7.8%死于感染。据估计，9岁以下儿童的死亡极为罕见，致死率仅为0.00161%。

For age groups younger than 40. the death rate was never higher than 0.16%, according to the study. Out of 1.000 young adults infected, then, about 1 or 2 could die, with the youngest people facing the lowest risk.

研究显示，对于40岁以下的人群，死亡率从不高于0.16%。每1000个年轻人中就有1到2个可能死亡，而最年轻的人面临的风险最低。

The study found that it could take weeks for people to recover from coronavirus, which could magnify potential health care shortages: The longer it takes for people to get better, the longer they may need precious hospital space and resources.

研究发现，人们从冠状病毒恢复可能需要数周时间，这可能会加剧潜在的卫生保健短缺:人们康复所需的时间越长，他们可能就越需要宝贵的医院空间和资源。

The average time from onset of symptoms to hospital discharge was about 25 days, researchers found, although patients might not have been hospitalized during the early days of their illness. Among those who succumbed to the virus, death came about 18 days after people started showing symptoms.

研究人员发现，从症状出现到出院的平均时间约为25天，尽管患者在发病初期可能没有住院。在那些感染病毒的人中，死亡发生在人们开始出现症状18天后。

In an article accompanying the research, Shigui Ruan, a professor of mathematics at the University of Miami, emphasized that estimating the coronavirus death rate "in real time during its epidemic is very challenging."

迈阿密大学数学教授阮志贵在一篇与这项研究相关的文章中强调，“在冠状病毒流行期间实时估计其死亡率是非常具有挑战性的。”

But understanding how many people die from a virus, he said, is an important piece of data that can help guide responses from governments and public health authorities.

但他说，了解有多少人死于病毒是一项重要的数据，可以帮助指导政府和公共卫生当局的反应。

Ruan, who was not involved with the research, also noted that the coronavirus fatality rate is low for younger people. But he stressed that "it is very clear that any suggestion of COVID-19 being just like influenza is false," with coronavirus remaining far deadlier than the seasonal flu.

阮没有参与这项研究，他还指出，年轻人的冠状病毒死亡率较低。但他强调，“很明显，任何关于COVID-19与流感相似的说法都是错误的”，冠状病毒的致死率远远高于季节性流感。