为什么我们要故意让我们的经济继续下滑

为什么我们要故意让我们的经济继续下滑

The United States is heading into a very sharp downturn in the next three months. That much seems certain.

美国在未来三个月里将进入一个非常严重的衰退。这似乎是肯定的。

What is unique this time is that we as a country are willing it to happen.

这一次的独特之处在于，我们作为一个国家愿意这样做。

Collectively — intentionally — we are putting much of the economy on lockdown. The priorities are clear: save lives and keep hospitals and emergency rooms from being overwhelmed.

我们正在把大部分经济集体地、有意地封锁起来。当务之急很明确:拯救生命，避免医院和急诊室人满为患。

California's governor was the first to order people in an entire U.S. state to stay home. Other states have followed. Throughout the country, restaurants and bars have closed. Air travel has come to a near standstill.

加州州长是全美国第一个命令的人们呆在家里的人。其他州也纷纷效仿。全国各地的餐馆和酒吧都关门了。航空旅行几乎停止了。

And most notably, Americans throughout the country have decided on their own to stay home — to protect themselves, their families and their neighbors.

最值得注意的是，美国各地的美国人决定自己呆在家里，以保护自己、家人和邻居。

All of these steps are being taken to somehow arrest the spread of the coronavirus. But all of these steps also contribute to a sudden, violent contraction in the economy.

所有这些措施都在以某种方式阻止冠状病毒的传播。但所有这些措施也导致了经济的突然剧烈收缩。

It's like a seesaw.

就像跷跷板。

The measures to protect public health are on one end. The normal activities that generate economic growth are on the other. And right now, we've put our weight firmly on the public health side of the seesaw. Saving lives is the priority.

保护公众健康的措施是一方面。另一方面，促进经济增长的正常活动。现在，我们把重心放在跷跷板的公共卫生方面。拯救生命是当务之急。

Jeffrey Sachs, professor of sustainable development at Columbia University, says two immediate steps are critical:

哥伦比亚大学可持续发展教授杰弗里•萨克斯表示，眼下有两个关键步骤:

Protecting highly vulnerable individuals — the elderly and people with underlying health conditions

保护极度脆弱的个人，指老年人和有潜在健康状况的人

Breaking the transmission process

中断传播过程

"These are the highest priorities right now," Sachs says. "Everything else — economic ramifications and so forth — have to be secondary because the ferocity of this epidemic is extraordinary."

“这些是目前最优先考虑的问题，”萨克斯说其他一切，例如经济后果等，都必须是次要的，因为这种流行病的凶猛程度非同寻常。”

In the short term, at least, the economic pain will be crushing. Jobless claims are soaring. Millions may be newly unemployed by the end of the month. Small businesses stand on the brink of insolvency as cash on hand runs short.

至少在短期内，经济的痛苦将是毁灭性的。申请失业救济人数正在飙升。到本月底，可能有数百万人失业。由于手头现金短缺，小企业濒临破产。

Uncertainty has sent financial markets into a spiral of fear. Goldman Sachs is warning of a jaw-dropping 24% drop in economic activity in the second quarter.

不确定性使金融市场陷入恐慌的漩涡。高盛(警告称，第二季度经济活动将大幅下降24%。

JPMorgan Chase predicts a contraction of 14%. If these come true, it's the kind of tailspin that's far worse than any quarter during the Great Recession.

摩根大通预测，(经济)将萎缩14%。如果这些都成为现实，那就是那种比大萧条时期任何一个季度都糟糕得多的暴跌。

None of this is to say that the government and business leaders are simply letting the worst happen. Steps are being taken to avoid a catastrophic collapse. The Federal Reserve has moved aggressively to limit the damage, slashing interest rates to zero and pumping hundreds of billions of dollars into the financial system to keep money flowing. The Trump administration and Congress are negotiating a rescue plan of more than $1 trillion.

这并不是说政府和商业领袖们只是让最坏的情况发生。正在采取措施避免灾难性的崩溃。美联储已采取积极措施限制损失，将利率降至零，并向金融体系注入数千亿美元以保持资金流动。特朗普政府和国会正在协商一项超过1万亿美元的救助计划。

But these moves cannot just flip a switch and quickly restore the economy to where it was a month ago. They are lifelines, not booster shots — help businesses keep the lights on, help people who lose income and jobs pay the rent and feed the kids.

但这些举措不可能一蹴而就，迅速将经济恢复到一个月前的水平。它们是生命线，而不是强心针——帮助企业维持运转，帮助那些失去收入和工作的人支付房租和养活孩子。

Emergency measures are critical. The economy has shifted to a wartime footing. Massive barrages of money and cheap credit will help, economists say. But the best remedy isn't financial: It's taming the coronavirus.

紧急措施至关重要。经济已转入战时状态。经济学家们表示，大量资金和廉价信贷将有所帮助。但最好的治疗方法不是经济上的:而是驯服冠状病毒。