什么年龄或身体状况会增加患严重COVID-19的几率

什么年龄或身体状况会增加患严重COVID-19的几率

People age 50 and older are around 2-and-a-half times more likely to progress to a severe case of COVID-19. That's according to a new study that quantifies the risk factors that increase the odds that people infected with the coronavirus will develop a severe case of the disease.

50岁及以上的人发展成严重的COVID-19的可能性是一般人的2.5倍。这是根据一项新的研究得出的结论，该研究量化了增加冠状病毒感染者患上严重疾病几率的风险因素。

The research, conducted by doctors in Shanghai, is a meta-analysis that examined data from 30 studies conducted between December 2019 and Feb. 19 involving 53.000 patients with confirmed cases of COVID-19. Most of the studies were conducted in Wuhan and other Chinese cities, though the analysis did include three studies involving patients from the United States, Australia and Korea.

这项由上海的医生进行的研究是一项meta分析，分析了2019年12月至2月19日期间进行的30项研究的数据，这些研究涉及5.3万名确诊的covid19患者。大多数研究是在武汉和中国其他城市进行的，不过分析确实包括了三项涉及美国、澳大利亚和韩国患者的研究。

Cases were considered to be severe if they had symptoms such as shortness of breath requiring 30 or more breaths per minutes (12 to 20 breaths a minute is considered normal for an adult); dangerously low levels of oxygen in the blood; and radiographic evidence of lung damage that had grown by 50% or more within a 24 to 48 hour period.

如果患者出现呼吸急促，每分钟需要呼吸30次或以上(成人认为每分钟呼吸12至20次为正常);血液中的氧气含量低到危险水平;以及在24至48小时内肺损伤增加50%或更多的影像学证据，则视为严重。

Being male increased the odds of progressing to severe illness by 1.3 times, while smoking made it a little over 1 to 2-and-a-half times more likely, the study found. Overall, patients with underlying medical conditions including hypertension, diabetes and cardiovascular disease were 2 to 3 times more likely to progress to severe illness.

研究发现，男性患严重疾病的几率增加了1.3倍，而吸烟的几率则增加了1至2.5倍。总体而言，患有高血压、糖尿病和心血管疾病等潜在疾病的患者发展成严重疾病的可能性是正常人的2至3倍。

Certain conditions raised those odds further, according to the study: For instance, people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder were anywhere from 2-and-a-half to nearly 11 times more likely to get severely ill. Kidney disease is also likely a big risk factor. While the research didn't pinpoint exactly how big that risk is, it suggested it's somewhere between 2- and 16-fold.

根据这项研究，某些情况进一步提高了这些几率:例如，患有慢性阻塞性肺疾病的人患上重病的可能性是常人的2.5倍至近11倍。肾脏疾病也可能是一个很大的风险因素。虽然这项研究并没有精确地指出这种风险有多大，但它表明这种风险在2到16倍之间。

The researchers say the findings suggest doctors should give more attention and care to older patients with these underlying risk factors.

研究人员说，研究结果表明，医生应该对有这些潜在危险因素的老年患者给予更多的关注和照顾。

The researchers didn't explain why certain underlying conditions appeared to make patients more vulnerable to severe COVID-19 disease, though they did say that all the conditions cited above can involve an inflammatory response from the body.

研究人员没有解释为什么某些潜在的情况似乎会让患者更容易患上严重的COVID-19疾病，但他们确实表示，上述所有情况都可能与身体的炎症反应有关。

Patients with chronic kidney disease may be more vulnerable because their kidneys are already weak and damaged, and severe coronavirus infection can further damage those organs.

患有慢性肾病的患者可能更容易受到感染，因为他们的肾脏已经很脆弱，而且严重的冠状病毒感染会进一步损害这些器官。

It's possible such patients may have missed dialysis sessions or other regular medical care because they were under quarantine or because the local medical system had to shift resources to focus on the growing epidemic.

这些病人可能错过了透析或其他常规医疗护理，因为他们被隔离，或者因为当地医疗系统不得不转移资源来关注日益严重的疫情。

Other research has also suggested that people with hypertension may be at greater risk from COVID-19. However, neither that earlier study nor the current one made it clear whether the apparent elevated risk was among people whose condition was under control with medication or not, or whether they had other underlying health problems.

其他研究也表明高血压患者可能更容易感染COVID-19.然而，无论是早期的研究还是现在的研究都没有明确表明，那些病情得到药物控制的人群是否会有这种明显的高风险，或者他们是否有其他潜在的健康问题。

"It does not make a lot of sense that if somebody is otherwise healthy and young and they have hypertension alone, that they should be at increased risk,"Dr. Mariell Jessup, chief science and medical officer at the American Heart Association, told NPR about the prior finding. However, she noted that so little is known about this coronavirus that everyone should take precautions.

“如果一个人本来就很健康、很年轻，而且只有高血压，那么他就应该面临更高的风险，这是说不通的。”美国心脏协会的首席科学和医疗官玛丽·杰瑟普告诉美国国家公共电台关于之前的发现。然而，她指出，对这种冠状病毒了解甚少，所以每个人都应该采取预防措施。

Like a lot of research on this fast-moving pandemic, the new study was released prior to peer review on a preprint server to speed up the sharing of information among scientists.

与许多关于这一迅速蔓延的流行病的研究一样，这项新研究是在同行评议之前在预印本服务器上发布的，目的是加速科学家之间的信息共享。