随着油价下跌和资金枯竭，美国页岩气油热潮是否即将破灭?
As Oil Prices Drop And Money Dries Up, Is The U.S. Shale Boom Going Bust?
随着油价下跌和资金枯竭，美国页岩气油热潮是否即将破灭?
The shale oil boom that catapulted the U.S. into the world's largest oil producer may be going bust. As oil prices drop amid weakening demand, bankruptcies and layoffs are up and drilling is down, signs of a crisis that's quietly roiling the industry.随着油价下跌和资金枯竭，美国页岩气油热潮是否即将破灭?
曾令美国一跃成为全球最大产油国的页岩油热潮可能即将破灭。随着需求疲软，石油价格下跌，增加了破产和裁员，钻探活动减少，这表明一场危机正在悄悄地搅乱石油行业。
Some of the most successful companies in the oil business are household names — think Exxon Mobil or Chevron. But the boom in shale drilling has been driven by smaller, independent operators. These companies have pushed the limits of drilling technology and taken big risks on unproven oil fields.
石油行业一些最成功的公司都是家喻户晓的名字，比如埃克森美孚和雪佛龙。但页岩油钻探的繁荣是由规模较小的独立运营商推动的。这些公司已经突破了钻探技术的极限，在未经证实的油田上冒了很大的风险。
如今，页岩油约占美国石油产量的三分之二，几乎占了整个行业的增长，但许多实现这一增长的公司现在都在艰难地维持运营。
That has a lot to do with the business model of U.S. shale, says David Deckelbaum, an analyst at investment bank Cowen. "This is an industry that for every dollar that they brought in, they would spend two," he says.
投资银行Cowen的分析师大卫•德克尔鲍姆说，这与美国页岩油的商业模式有很大关系。他表示:“在这个行业，他们每赚一美元，就会花掉两美元。”
For years operators focused on drilling lots of new wells very fast, prioritizing explosive growth over profitability. Until now they've been able to rely on deep-pocketed investors who were willing to pour fresh capital into the industry, despite years of lackluster returns.
多年来，运营商专注于快速钻探大量新油井，把（钻探油井数量的）爆炸性增长置于盈利之上。到目前为止，它们一直能够依赖财力雄厚的投资者，尽管多年来回报率平平，但这些投资者仍愿意向该行业注入新的资本。
It's a story that may be familiar to anyone who's been following the tech industry in recent years. Deckelbaum compares it to a kind of a prospector mentality.
对于近年来一直关注科技行业的人来说，这个故事可能很熟悉。德克尔鲍姆把它比作一种淘金者的心态。
"There's always this idea of this brand new play that's going to have billions of barrels of upside and if you can just get in early, then it'll pay off in the long run," he says.
他表示:“总有人认为，这种全新的投资方式将有大量的上升空间，如果你能及早入市，那么从长远来看，这种投资方式将获得回报。”
Oil has always been a boom-and-bust industry. In 2014, for instance, a catastrophic price crash left the industry reeling. But even then, billions in new investment flowed into U.S. shale.
石油一直是一个繁荣与萧条交替的行业。例如，在2014年，一场灾难性的价格崩盘让该行业步履蹒跚。但即便如此，仍有数十亿美元的新投资流入美国页岩油行业。
Today, shrinking global demand for oil is driving the price down once again. What's different this time around? Investors no longer seem willing to write the industry a blank check.
如今，全球对石油需求的萎缩再次压低了油价。这次有什么不同?投资者似乎不再愿意给这个行业开空头支票。
"I think now you've seen a lot of pressure of, 'We want you to be a real business. Your cost structure's too high, you have too much debt, I'm not funding your drilling anymore with external capital. You have to live within your own means,' " Deckelbaum says.
“我想你现在已经看到了很多压力，‘我们希望你成为一个真正的企业。你的成本结构太高，你有太多的债务，我不会再用外部资本为你的钻探提供资金了。你必须量入为出，’”德克尔鲍姆说。
由于无法获得新的资金，许多生产商正在缩减勘探。钻探新石油的钻机数量降至两年来的最低点。
That's bad news for people like Ron Fountain, who works on a drilling rig in the Bakken shale of North Dakota. He thinks back to a few years ago, when the price of oil was over $100 a barrel and companies were drilling with abandon.
这对朗·方丹(Ron Fountain)这样的人来说是个坏消息，他在北达科他州巴肯页岩的一个钻井台上工作。他回想起几年前，当时石油价格超过每桶100美元，石油公司肆意钻探。
"That's when we were still booming," Fountain says. "There was rigs coming out every month. We couldn't keep up, there was so much work going on."
“那是我们还在蓬勃发展的时候，”方丹说。“每个月都有提供新的钻探机。我们跟不上，有太多的工作要做。”
Today though, with more and more rigs sitting idle, life has become uncertain for Fountain and his fellow drillers.
然而今天，随着越来越多的钻井台闲置，方丹和他的钻井伙伴们的生活变得不确定了。
