美联储官员说，衰退还没有到来

The American economy is experiencing turbulence. The trade war and global weakness are slowing growth. But Mary Daly, the president of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, is confident the economy will get through the storm unscathed.
美国经济正在经历动荡。贸易战和全球经济疲软正在放缓增长。但旧金山联邦储备银行总统的玛丽戴莉相信，美国经济将毫发无损地度过这场风暴。
"A recession is not, in my judgment, right around the corner," Daly told CNN's interview this week.
戴莉本周在接受美国有线电视新闻网的采访时表示:“在我看来，经济衰退不会马上来临。” Although Daly said the Fed is "mindful of the slowdown," she believes the recovery from the Great Recession will endure.
尽管戴利表示，美联储“注意到了经济放缓”，但她相信，大衰退后的复苏将持续下去。
"I think we have more room to run," said Daly, who does not vote this year on Fed policy decisions but participates in the deliberations.
"我认为我们还有更大的空间，" 戴利称。她今年不会就美联储政策决策投票，但会参与讨论。
The recovery began in June 2009, creating millions of jobs along the way. The expansion has withstood countless scares, including the European debt crisis, crashing oil prices and a sharp slowdown in China's economy. It is now the longest period of uninterrupted growth in American history.
经济复苏始于2009年6月，创造了数百万个就业岗位。这种扩张经历了无数次的恐慌，包括欧洲债务危机、油价暴跌和中国经济急剧放缓。这是美国历史上持续增长时间最长的时期。
Daly, who was named the president and CEO of the San Francisco Fed last year, suggested her top fear is fear itself.
戴利去年被任命为旧金山联邦储备银行行长兼首席执行官，她表示，她最担心的就是恐惧本身。
"The biggest risk is: Will the mood get ahead of the data?" she said.
她说:“最大的风险是:人们的情绪会超过数据吗?” Recession fears spiked in recent months when the US-China trade war erupted again. Economists and investors worried the unprecedented trade clash could be the spark for the next downturn.
近几个月，随着美中贸易战的再次爆发，人们对经济衰退的担忧加剧。经济学家和投资者担心，这场前所未有的贸易冲突可能会引发下一次经济衰退。
However, those concerns have eased more recently as Washington and Beijing make progress in trade talks toward a preliminary deal and the US jobs market shows resiliency. US stocks have catapulted back to record highs.
然而，随着美中两国在贸易谈判中朝着达成初步协议取得进展，以及美国就业市场显示出弹性，这些担忧近来有所缓解。美国股市已反弹至创纪录高点。
Fed moves to counter trade war
美联储采取措施应对贸易战
Still, Daly said CEOs in her district are clamoring for a settlement to the trade war because it's disrupting their business plans.
尽管如此，戴利说，她所在地区的首席执行官们仍在大声呼吁解决贸易战，因为这打乱了他们的商业计划。
"That uncertainty wears people down," Daly said.
戴利说:“这种不确定性让人们感到沮丧。
The weakest part of the American economy is the manufacturing industry, which has contracted for three straight months.
美国经济最疲软的部分是制造业，它已经连续三个月萎缩。
President Donald Trump has blamed the factory slowdown on the Federal Reserve, saying it has caused the US dollar to become overvalued by raising interest rates too high.
美国总统唐纳德•特朗普将制造业增长放缓归咎于美联储，称美联储将利率提高得过高，导致美元被高估。
Yet Daly said the manufacturing slowdown has been caused by weak global growth and the trade war. She said trade uncertainty has led "many" businesses to delay investments until the dust settles.
但戴利表示，制造业放缓是由全球增长疲弱和贸易战造成的。她表示，贸易不确定性导致“许多”企业推迟投资，直到问题解决。 The Fed has sought to cushion the blow from the trade war and global turmoil by slashing borrowing costs three meetings in a row -- steps that Daly fully supported.
美联储寻求通过连续三次削减借款成本来缓冲贸易战和全球动荡带来的冲击，戴利完全支持这些举措。
Will the Fed go negative on rates?
美联储会负利率吗?
Weak growth in Europe and Japan have prompted central bankers there to drop interest rates into negative territory. Trump has urged the Fed to go negative as well, even though the US central bank didn't even resort to this extreme step during the 2008 financial crisis.
欧洲和日本经济增长疲软，促使当地央行将利率降至负值。特朗普还敦促美联储采取负利率，尽管美联储在2008年金融危机期间都没有采取这种极端措施。
Analysts have said the Fed briefly lost control of rates last month, but Daly doesn't think so.
分析人士曾说，美联储上个月一度失去了对利率的控制，但戴利不这么认为。