贸易战拖累华尔街，为何中国股市却在反弹？
近几周来，贸易方面的头条新闻让投资人坐立不安，导致华尔街及世界大部分地区股市下跌。
Not in China though. The benchmark Shanghai and Shenzhen stock indexes hit their lows for the year on Oct. 18 after China’s government reported that the country’s economy grew at its slowest pace in nearly a decade during the third quarter. Since then, the two indexes are up 6 percent and 10 percent. By comparison, the S&P 500 has fallen more than 4 percent over that period.
中国则不同。10月18日，在中国政府公布第三季度该国的经济增速为近10年来最低之后，作为基准的上指和深指跌至今年以来的低谷。此后，两大指数分别上涨了6个和10个百分点。相比之下，标准普尔500指数同期下跌了超过4个百分点。
It’s not that investors in China are sanguine about a trade war. It’s that they just began selling much earlier.
这并不是说中国的投资人对贸易战持乐观态度。只是他们开始更早地出售。
Chinese stocks tumbled more than 25 percent from mid-March through Oct. 18. That pushed valuations on Chinese stocks, by some measures, to their lowest levels in four years.
从3月中旬到10月18日，中国股市暴跌了25%以上。按照一些衡量标准，这使得中国股票的估值降至四年以来的最低水平。
The steep declines were partly because China’s economy is more susceptible to a trade war than America’s. China sells a lot more to the United States than it purchases. The Trump administration’s aggressive approach to trade also came at a delicate time for China. The country was trying to tackle its considerable debt problem without slowing its economy further.
在一定程度上，股市大跌是因为中国经济比美国经济更易受贸易战的影响。中国对美国的出口远大于进口。特朗普政府在贸易上采取强硬措施也正值中国面临一个棘手的时期。该国正努力不让经济进一步放缓的同时，要应对严重的债务问题。
A similar shift in sentiment was experienced across emerging-market stocks. Pressured by trade, rising interest rates in the United States and a stronger American dollar, the MSCI Emerging Market Index fell about 20 percent this year to its low in October. That left those stocks looking cheap too.
整个新兴市场的股市也都出现了类似的情绪变动。受贸易、美国利率上升及美元升值的压力影响，MSCI新兴市场指数今年跌幅约20%，10月份跌至低谷。这也使得这些股票看上去很便宜。
Some of the pressures on emerging markets have eased since then. China and the United States agreed to a 90-day trade truce, the dollar has weakened and investors increasingly believe the Federal Reserve will slow its pace of rate increases next year. Over the last six weeks, emerging-market stocks have gained 5 percent.
新兴市场所面临的一部分压力此后有所缓解。中国和美国达成了90天的贸易休战，美元贬值，投资者越来越相信美联储明年将减缓加息步伐。过去6周，新兴市场股市涨了5个百分点。
China is hardly past many of the concerns that have pulled down share prices this year. The country is still wrestling with how to ease its onerous debt burden without hurting economic growth, and trade negotiations could fall apart or end without any resolution.
中国几乎还没有摆脱拉低今年股价的许多担忧。该国仍在不拖累经济增长的同时，努力减轻沉重的债务负担，而且贸易谈判可能会破裂，或者在没有达成任何解决方案的情况下结束。
Could the recent performance of China’s stock market indicate that the effect of the trade war on share prices is nearing a bottom? After all, sometimes the markets that get beat up the most, are also the first to show that the worst is nearing an end.
中国股市近期的表现是否表明，贸易战对股价的影响几乎见底?毕竟，有时候增幅最大的股市，也是第一个表明见底的股市。
We will have to wait to see if that is the case with trade.
贸易是否也是如此，我们只能拭目以待。
