美国农民的大豆腐烂前，贸易战能结束吗？
北达科他州亚瑟——这是达科他州东部丰饶农田的收获季节，一年中的这个时候凯文·卡雷尔(Kevin Karel)总是会在早上查看他的电脑，看看中国公司在他睡觉时购买了多少大豆。
Farmers here in Cass County have prospered over the last two decades by growing more soybeans than any other county in the United States, and by shipping most of those beans across the Pacific Ocean to feed Chinese pigs and chickens.
过去20年来，卡斯县是全美大豆种植量最高的县，绝大多数大豆作为猪和鸡饲料被销往中国，该县由此繁荣了起来。
But this year, the Chinese have all but stopped buying. The largest market for one of the United States’ largest exports has shut its doors. The Chinese government imposed a tariff on American soybeans in response to the Trump administration’s tariffs on Chinese goods. The latest federal data, through mid-October, shows American soybean sales to China have declined by 94 percent from last year’s harvest.
但今年，中国人几乎停止了购买。美国最大出口产品之一的最大市场已经关闭。中国政府对美国大豆征收关税，以回应特朗普政府对中国商品的关税。最新的联邦数据显示，截至10月中旬，美国出口中国的大豆销量比去年的收获时节减少了94%。
Karel, the general manager of the Arthur Companies, which operates six grain elevators in eastern North Dakota, has started to pile 1 million bushels of soybeans on a clear patch of ground behind some of his grain silos. The big mound of yellowish-white beans, already one of the taller hills in this flat part of the world, will then be covered with tarps.
卡雷尔是亚瑟公司(Arthur Companies)的总经理，公司在北达科他州东部经营着六座谷仓塔，他已开始在一些谷仓后面的空地上堆积100万蒲式耳的大豆。在这片地势平坦的地区，这些黄白色的大豆堆的高度已经超过了许多山丘，然后在上面会盖上防水布。
The hope is that prices will rise before the beans rot.
他们指望的是在大豆腐烂前价格能涨回去。
“We’re sitting on the edge of our seat,” Karel said.
“我们现在非常紧张，”卡雷尔说。
President Donald Trump sees tariffs as a tool to force changes in the United States’ economic relationships with China and other major trading partners. His tough approach, he says, will revive American industries like steel and auto manufacturing that have lost ground to foreign rivals. But that is coming at a steep cost for some industries, like farming, that have thrived in the era of globalization by exporting goods to foreign markets.
唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)总统认为关税是推动美国与中国和其他主要贸易伙伴转变经济关系的工具。他说，他的强硬手段将使钢铁和汽车制造等美国工业复苏，这些工业相比外国竞争对手已经处于下风。但是，对于像农业这样在全球化时代通过向国外市场出口商品而蓬勃发展的产业来说，这需要付出巨大的代价。
China and other trading partners hit with the tariffs, including the European Union, have sought to maximize the political impact of their reprisals. The European Union imposed tariffs on bourbon, produced in Kentucky, the home state of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, and on Harley-Davidson motorcycles, from Wisconsin, the home state of House Speaker Paul Ryan. China’s decision to impose tariffs on soybeans squeezes some of Trump’s staunchest supporters across the Midwestern farm belt.
被关税打击的中国和包括欧洲的其他贸易伙伴，都试图最大化其报复的政治影响。欧盟对产自肯塔基州的波本威士忌和产自威斯康星州的哈雷-戴维森摩托车(Harley-Davidson motorcycles)征收关税，肯塔基州是参议院多数党领袖米奇·麦康奈尔(Mitch McConnell)的家乡，而威斯康星州则是众议院议长保罗·瑞安(Paul Ryan)的家乡。中国对大豆征收关税的决定打击了特朗普在中西部农场地带一些最坚定的支持者。
Like most successful American exports, soybeans are produced at high efficiency by a small number of workers using cutting-edge technologies, like tractors connected to satellites so the optimal mix of fertilizers can be spread on each square foot of farmland. The United States exported $26 billion in soybeans last year and more than half went to China.
像大多数成功的美国出口产品一样，大豆是由少数工人使用尖端技术高效生产出来的，比如拖拉机与卫星连接，因此可以将肥料的最优组合播撒在每一个平方英尺的农田上。去年，美国出口了260亿美元大豆，超过一半运往中国。
Some farmers in North Dakota say they trust Trump to negotiate in the nation’s interest. Karel said many of his customers wear red “Make American Great Again” caps and insist that the pain of lost business and lower profits is worthwhile. They say they will suffer now so their children benefit later — echoing the argument Trump has made.
北达科他州的一些农民说他们相信特朗普会为了国家的利益进行谈判。卡雷尔说，他的许多顾客戴着红色“让美国恢复伟大荣光”(Make America Great Again)帽子，并坚持认为失去生意和降低利润的痛苦是值得的。他们说他们现在将遭罪，所以他们的孩子以后会受益——这与特朗普提出的论点相呼应。
Others are less enthused. Greg Gebeke, who farms 5,000 acres outside Arthur with two of his brothers, said he struggled to understand the administration’s goals.
有的人则不那么热忱。格雷格·格贝吉(Greg Gebeke)和他的两个兄弟在亚瑟外面种植了5000英亩的土地，他说他很难理解政府的目标。
“I’m trying to follow and figure out who the winners are in this tariff war,” Gebeke said. “I know who one of the losers are and that’s us. And that’s painful.”
“我正在关注并找出这场关税战争中的赢家是谁，”格贝吉说。“但我知道一个输家是谁，那就是我们。这很痛苦。”
North Dakota’s soybean industry was created by Chinese demand for the beans, which are crushed to make feed for animals and oil for human consumption.
北达科他州的大豆产业是中国对大豆的需求造就的，这些大豆被粉碎以制造动物饲料和供人们食用的油。
China is by far the world’s largest importer of soybeans. The country consumed 110 million tons of soybeans in 2017, and 87 percent of those beans were imported — the vast majority from either Brazil or the United States. While soybeans are grown throughout the Midwest, the soybean fields of North Dakota are the part of soybean country that is closest to the Pacific Ocean, and so its beans are mostly sent to China.
中国是迄今世界上最大的大豆进口国。在2017年消耗了1.1亿吨大豆，其中87%是进口的，绝大多数来自巴西或美国。虽然大豆种植遍布整个中西部地区，但北达科他州的大豆田是最接近太平洋的大豆之乡，因此这里出产的豆类大多被送往中国。
In the mid-1990s, there were 450,000 acres of soybeans in the state. Last year, there were 6.4 million. As the state’s production of soybeans increased, companies spent millions of dollars on larger grain elevators, on the 110-car trains that carry the soybeans west to the Pacific Coast, on bigger terminals at the ports. A few years ago, Gebeke traded his grain drill, used to plant wheat, for a second machine to plant soybeans.
在1990年代中期，该州有大约45万英亩的大豆。去年有640万英亩。随着大豆产量的增加，公司花费数百万美元购置谷仓塔，用于将大豆往西运到太平洋海岸的110节车厢的火车，还在港口扩建了码头。几年前，格贝吉将用于种植小麦的谷物播种机换成了第二台种植大豆的机器。
The Arthur Companies in 2016 opened a shiny drying, storage and loading facility that can hold 2.7 million bushels of beans waiting for the next train.
亚瑟公司于2016年启用了一个崭新的干燥、储存和装载设施，可以容纳270万蒲式耳正等待下一班火车的大豆。
Soybean farmers also spent millions of dollars cultivating the Chinese market. Farmers in North Dakota and other states contribute a fixed percentage of revenue to a federal fund called the “soybean checkoff” that pays for marketing programs like trade missions to China and research intended to convince Chinese farmers that pigs raised on American soybeans grow faster and fatter. In 2015, North Dakota soybean farmers footed the bill for an event in Shanghai honoring the 10 “most loyal” buyers of American soybeans.
大豆农民还花费了数百万美元来培育中国市场。北达科他州和其他州的农民将一定比例的收入贡献给名为“大豆核查”的联邦基金，该基金为中国贸易代表团等市场营销计划付费，旨在让中国农民相信，用美国大豆饲养的猪可以更快长胖。2015年，北达科他州大豆种植者为在上海举办的一项活动出资，表彰10位“最忠诚”的美国大豆买家。
The soybean industry’s sales pitch emphasized the reliability of American infrastructure and the political stability of the United States. The message was that the Chinese could be confident that American farmers would deliver high quality soybeans.
大豆产业的推销活动强调美国基础设施的可靠性和美国的政治稳定性。传递的信息是，中国人可以信任美国农民能提供高质量的大豆。
“I’ve been to China 25 times in the last decade talking about the dependability of U.S. soybeans,” said Kirk Leeds, the chief executive of the Iowa Soybean Association. By undermining that reputation, he said, “We have done long-term damage to the industry.”
“在过去的十年中，我曾25次访问中国，告诉他们美国大豆有多么可靠，”艾奥瓦州大豆协会会长柯克·利兹(Kirk Leeds)说。他说，通过削弱这种声誉，“我们已经对该行业造成了长期损害。”
Gebeke, 65, recalled President Jimmy Carter’s decision to suspend wheat sales to the Soviet Union in 1979. The embargo ended two years later but, by then, the Soviets were getting more of their grain from Ukraine. Speaking of the soybean standoff, he said, “They could get together tomorrow and iron this thing all out and I don’t think we’ll ever get all of our market back.”
现年65岁的格贝吉回忆起吉米·卡特(Jimmy Carter)总统曾于1979年决定暂停向苏联出售小麦。两年后禁运结束了，但到了那时候，苏联人从乌克兰获得了更多粮食。谈到大豆方面的对峙，他说，“就算他们明天就开会把所有事都解决掉，我也不认为到时候我们能把所有的市场都拿回来。”
As China swallows the world’s supply of non-American soybeans, other countries are buying more beans from the United States, especially European nations that usually import beans from Brazil.
随着中国吞噬世界上所有非美国产的大豆供应，其他国家则从美国购买更多豆类，特别是通常从巴西进口豆类的欧洲国家。
Some nations that grow soybeans, like Canada, are shipping their own beans to China at high prices and then buying American beans at lower prices to meet domestic demand. Taiwan, seeking to curry favor, signed a deal to buy more American soybeans over the next two years.
一些种植大豆的国家，如加拿大，正以高价向中国出口豆类，然后以较低的价格购买美国豆以满足国内需求。台湾希望讨好美国，遂签署了未来两年收购更多美国大豆的协议。
None of this is nearly enough. During the first six weeks of the current export year, which began in September, American soybean exports to China are down by about 6 million tons from last year, while soybean exports to the rest of the world are up by only 3 million tons.
这些都不够。在9月份开始的当前出口年度的前六周，美国对中国的大豆出口量比去年减少了约600万吨，而对世界其他地区的大豆出口量仅增加了300万吨。
Some analysts predict China will be forced to buy more American beans after it exhausts other sources. Others are hopeful that China and the United States will reach a deal to remove the tariffs.
一些分析人士预测，在耗尽其他来源后，中国将被迫购买更多的美国豆。还有人则认为中国和美国有望达成协议以取消关税。
But waiting carries risks. Soybeans can spoil and Brazil harvests its crop in the spring, creating fresh competition for American beans.
但等待会带来风险。大豆会腐坏，巴西在春季收获其作物，为美国豆创造了新的竞争。
“Hope is unfortunately a terrible marketing plan,” said Nancy Johnson, executive director of the North Dakota Soybean Growers Association. “不幸的是，‘希望’是一种糟糕的营销计划，”北达科他州大豆种植者协会会长南希·约翰逊(Nancy Johnson)说。
The industry continues to seek new markets. Jim Sutter, chief executive of the U.S. Soybean Export Council, said he was focused on persuading Indians to eat more chicken. The council, which already provides funding to Indian trade groups, is planning to back an advertising campaign.
该行业继续寻求新的市场。美国大豆出口委员会首席执行官吉姆·萨特(Jim Sutter)说，他专注于说服印度人吃更多鸡肉。该委员会已经为印度贸易集团提供资金，计划支持一项广告活动。
“People in India will eat more protein as the economy grows, but our job is to speed that up,” Sutter said.
“随着经济的增长，印度人将食用更多蛋白质，但我们的工作就是提高其速度，”萨特说。
The Trump administration said in August that it would distribute $3.6 billion to soybean farmers to offset the decline in market prices. The subsidy rate of 82.5 cents per bushel, however, covers less than half of the losses facing North Dakota farmers at current market prices.
特朗普政府8月份表示将向大豆农民分发36亿美元，以抵消市场价格的下跌。然而，这笔钱折合每蒲式耳82.5美分的补贴率，不到目前市场价格导致北达科他州农民所面临损失的一半。
