中国三季度GDP增6.5%，创近10年来新低

Sputtering growth, soaring debt and an escalating trade war with the United States are increasingly weighing on China’s economy.

增长乏力、债务飙升，还有正在升级的中美贸易战，这些都在拖累中国的经济。

China’s government on Friday reported that the economy grew by 6.5 percent over the three months that ended in September compared with a year ago. While fast by global standards, the pace is China’s slowest since 2009, during the depths of the global financial crisis.

中国政府周五公布第三季度经济同比仅增长6.5%。尽管以国际标准来看仍属快速，但该数字是中国自2009年全球深陷金融危机以来最慢的增长。

China has reported growth figures over the past two years that painted a picture of an economy that is gamely chugging along, despite the country’s lingering problems and widespread doubts over the reliability of official numbers. A different narrative has emerged this year, one of a slowing economy that is forcing Beijing to make some difficult choices.

从过去两年公布的增长数字看到的，是一个顽强稳步前进的中国经济，尽管这个国家仍有未解决的问题，且外界对官方数字可信度普遍存有疑问。今年出现了另一种叙事，称经济放缓正在迫使北京作出艰难抉择。

Chinese shoppers are spending less and downgrading their purchases, like staying home instead of going out, or drinking beer instead of cocktails. Wages are stagnant. Investment in splashy infrastructure projects has dropped sharply.

中国购物者花钱变少了，并且在降低购买标准，例如待在家里不出去玩，或是喝啤酒而不是鸡尾酒。工资水平出现停滞。对引人瞩目的基础设施建设项目的投资大幅下降。

China’s stock market is firmly in the red — it has fallen by 30 percent since a peak in January — making it one of the world’s worst performing. The currency has weakened and is hovering near a 10-year low against the American dollar. Companies are complaining that they cannot get money from lenders, and a handful are defaulting on their loans.

中国股市自一月达到巅峰以来已下跌30%，目前深陷熊市，为全球表现最差的市场之一。人民币已经走弱，兑美元汇率徘徊在近10年最低点。公司都在抱怨无法获得贷款，还有一些公司出现债务违约的情况。

All of this is before factoring in China’s intensifying trade war with the United States. Friday’s report is the first since the two countries began to impose tit-for-tat tariffs starting in early July.

这些都是在中美贸易战愈演愈烈前就发生的。周五的数字是两国七月初开始针锋相对地互征关税后首次公布的数据。

So far it has only marginally dented China’s $12 trillion economy. Chinese officials point to figures that show overall trade remains robust despite the conflict. Still, the impact may take some months to show.

迄今为止，关税只对中国12万亿美元的经济造成了轻微影响。中国官员指出，尽管有这场冲突，有数据显示整体贸易仍十分强健。但贸易战的影响可能需要一些时日才能显露出来。

On Friday, officials blamed “an extremely complicated and severe international situation” for the lower-than-expected growth figures but also sought to lift confidence with statements of support from the central bank and market regulators. 周五，官员们将低于预期的增长数据归咎于“异常复杂严峻的国际形势”，但也力图用央行及市场监管机构的支持来提振信心。

In a wide-ranging interview with state media that was posted later midday, Liu He, China’s economic czar, said that trade frictions with the United States had cause “impact on the stock market, but the psychological effect is bigger than the actual impact, frankly speaking.”

中国官媒在午后发表了一份内容广泛的采访，中国“经济沙皇”刘鹤表示，中美贸易摩擦“对市场也造成了影响，但坦率地说，心理影响大于实际影响。”

He added that the United States and China were in contact, without elaborating. Trade discussions were put on hold in September after the Chinese declined an invitation by Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to hold fresh talks.

他补充说，中美两国正在进行接触，但没有详细说明。在中国拒绝了美国财政部长史蒂文·马努钦(Steven Mnuchin)进行新谈判的邀请后，两国贸易谈判于九月暂停。

These are some takeaways from the report.

报告中有一些要点。

For China, revving up the growth engine is complicated

对中国来说，加快增长引擎的运转很复杂

During periods of economic slowdown, China has turned to local governments to spur growth through big infrastructure and development projects. That approach juiced growth but saddled key parts of the economy with debt.

经济放缓期间，中国曾转向地方政府，通过大型基础设施建设及开发项目刺激增长。这一举措促进了经济增长，但却让中国经济的关键部分背上债务。

The exact numbers aren’t clear, but experts agree that the debt load is vast. In a report this week, S&P Global estimated that China’s local governments are carrying as much as $6 trillion in shadowy debt off the books. That’s equivalent to roughly three-fifths of China’s entire economic output. Analysts at the ratings firm called it “an alarming level.”

具体的数字尚不清楚，但专家一致认为，债务负担十分庞大。在本周的一份报告中，标普全球(S&P Global)估算中国地方政府所负担的不在账面上的影子债务高达六万亿美元。这个数字相当于中国整体经济产量约五分之三。该评级机构的分析师称其已经达到了“值得警惕的水平”。

China has been trying to throttle back the lending, but that has hurt growth. Growth in spending on highways, rail and public facilities has fallen to a record low this year. From the start of the year through the end of August, the growth in infrastructure spending fell to 4.2 percent compared with the same period last year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

中国一直在努力控制借贷，但这种做法影响到了增长。高速公路、铁路及公共设施方面的支出增长今年已降至历史最低。根据国家统计局的数据显示，自今年年初到八月底，基础设施建设方面的支出增长与去年同期相比下降至4.2%。

Now, Beijing appears to be rethinking its austerity efforts. Officials are beginning to encourage new investment. To reduce the bill, they are asking the private sector to help out. This week it announced that 1,222 infrastructure projects worth $362 billion would be financed by private companies.

如今，北京似乎在对其财政紧缩措施作重新考虑。官员们开始鼓励新投资。为了减少费用，他们要求私营部门出手相助。本周，中国宣布将有1222个价值3620亿美元的基础设施项目由私营企业提供资金。

The health of the Chinese consumer is critical 中国消费者的健康程度至关重要

China’s expanding middle class and its increasingly expensive consumption habits have been an important pillar for growth as China moves away from its dependence on exports and big investment projects.

随着中国摆脱对出口及大型投资项目的依赖，中国不断壮大的中产阶级及其愈发昂贵的消费习惯成为了经济增长的重要支柱。

Retail sales stayed buoyant as Chinese consumers continued to buy cars, appliances, smartphones and other goods. The strong numbers will help officials in Beijing to argue that the trade war has left China’s domestic economy largely untouched.

随着中国消费者持续买入汽车、电器、智能手机及其他商品，零售业销售保持上涨态势。强劲的数字有助于北京的官员提出贸易战没对中国国内经济造成什么影响的观点。

But economists warn that the overall rosy picture could change. For example, car sales began to slow in September, according to the China Passenger Car Association.

但经济学家警告，这整个美好景象可能会发生改变。例如，根据全国汽车市场研究会的数据显示，汽车销售开始在九月放缓。

“A month from now may be just the time retailers start to buckle,” wrote analysts at China Beige Book International. The group, which surveys big businesses in China, said retailers reported the worst payroll health of any sector in recent months.

“从现在起的一个月后，可能就是零售商们感受到压力的时候了，”中国褐皮书国际公司(China Beige Book International)一名分析师写道。这家会对中国大型企业进行问卷调查的公司说，零售商们表示出现了近几个月来所有经济部门中最糟糕的薪资情况。

Retail numbers could also fall as Beijing cracks down on non-bank lenders and peer-to-peer lending platforms, which have been a source of credit for many consumers in recent years. 随着北京打压非银行贷款方及P2P放贷平台，零售数据可能继续下降。这些平台是近年来许多消费者的信贷来源。

The trade war could prove a drag

事实证明，贸易战可能会是一个拖累

In September, the United States put tariffs on $200 billion worth of products coming from China. President Trump has given no indication that he will back down any time soon.

九月，美国对来自中国价值2000亿美元的商品加征关税。特朗普总统还没有给出任何会在近期让步的表示。

Chinese export figures for September jumped 14.5 percent compared with a year earlier. That unlikely number probably isn’t a sign that trade is doing well. Some exporters attributed the rise to American companies ramping up orders before new tariffs make their purchases more expensive.

中国九月的出口数据同比跃升至14.5%。这个不太可能的数字可能并非是贸易情况良好的迹象。一些出口商将数据增长的原因归结于美国公司在新关税导致采购变得更昂贵前，提升了下单量。

“We know customers tried to clear as much finished product in transit to the U.S. as possible before the deadline,” said Peter Levesque, the managing director of Modern Terminals in Hong Kong. That could happen again, as American importers try to bypass the next deadline of Jan. 1 for a 25 percent tariff on Chinese goods.

“我们知道在截止日期前，顾客尽可能多地让运输到美国的成品清关，”香港现代货箱码头(Modern Terminals)总经理李国维(Peter Levesque)表示。随着美国进口商试图绕过1月1日下一个对中国商品加征25%关税的最后期限，这种情况可能会再次出现。

While much of the impact of the trade war has yet to be felt, experts say it won’t take long for a slowing economy to start to feel the pinch, especially as officials grapple with other economic problems. The trade war could shave as much as 1.6 percent off China’s economic growth figures next year, according to a recent report from the International Monetary Fund.

尽管人们还没感受到贸易战的大部分影响，专家表示要不了多久，放缓的经济就会开始感到压力，尤其是在官员们努力应付其他经济问题的时候。根据近期一份来自国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)的报告，贸易战可能会在明年减少中国经济增长多达1.6%。

“We’re not going to be able to see it in the numbers that are provided and that will just add to the uncertainty,” said Paul Gruenwald, global chief economist at S&P Global Ratings. “It’s going to be hard to pinpoint any pressure because we don’t have enough data.”

“我们不会在中国提供的数据里看到这些，而这只会增加不确定性，”标准普尔的全球首席经济学家保罗·格伦瓦尔德(Paul Gruenwald)表示。“因为我们没有足够的数据，要描述对经济构成的压力会很难。”

But, he added, “there is definitely pessimism. It’s just a question of how much it will slow things down.” 但他补充说，

“悲观情绪肯定是存在的。问题只是它会让经济放缓多少。”

Officials look to shore up confidence

官员们希望能提振信心

Just before releasing the economic growth figures on Friday morning, the websites for China’s central bank, insurance and securities regulators posted news media interviews with senior officials giving support to the market. The chairman of the securities regulator went as far as to appeal to certain market participants to buy stocks.

周五早间公布经济增长数据前，中国银监会、保监会及证监会的网站均发布了新闻媒体对高级官员的采访，以对市场表示支持。证监会主席甚至呼吁某些市场参与者购买股票。

“We encourage private equity funds to purchase shares of listed companies and participate in mergers and acquisitions of listed companies,” said Liu Shiyu, the chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission.

“我们鼓励私募股权基金通过参与非公开发行、协议转让、大宗交易等方式，购买已上市公司股票，”证监会主席刘士余表示。

Earlier this month, the People’s Bank of China pulled a financial lever that effectively pumped $175 billion into the economy and the market.

本月早些时候，中国人民银行拉动了一个金融杠杆，有效地为经济和市场注入1750亿美元。