贸易战加剧在华外企压力，但离开中国并不容易
柬埔寨金边——美中之间日益恶化的贸易战加剧了企业离开中国的压力，它们纷纷到其他地方开厂，比如柬埔寨——一个青山绿水的国家，拥有1600万收入不高但满怀希望的人民。
But anybody who moves here may have to deal with the water buffalo.
但任何搬到这里的人都可能要对付水牛。
Huffing, snorting and in no hurry to move, the big-horned bovines occasionally meander across the Khmer-American Friendship Highway, the dusty, 140-mile route linking Phnom Penh’s factories with the port in the coastal city of Sihanoukville. They are not the only potential obstacles. At quitting time, factory workers heading home on foot and motorbikes clog the road.
长着长角的牛喷着鼻息，不紧不慢，不时蜿蜒穿过高棉-美国友谊高速公路，这条尘土飞扬的公路有140英里长，把金边的工厂和沿海城市西哈努克城的港口连接起来。这些牛不是唯一潜在的障碍。在下班时间，步行回家的工厂工人和摩托车堵塞了道路。
For factory owners on deadline, those crowded roads can mean frustrating delays.
对于要赶工的工厂主，拥挤的道路可能意味着令人沮丧的延误。
“Where Cambodia sits now is where China was 25 years ago,” said Piet Holten, who makes the microfiber cloths and bags for sport and fashion sunglass brands like Oakley. To get his sportswear products from his Phnom Penh factory to market, he flies them using DHL.
“柬埔寨现在所处的正是中国25年前的位置，”皮特·霍尔滕(Piet Holten)说，他为奥克利(Oakley)等运动和时尚太阳镜品牌生产超细纤维布和包。为了把它的运动服饰产品从金边工厂运往市场，他选择了DHL空运。
President Trump’s tariffs on Chinese products, which expanded to an additional $200 billion worth of goods on Monday, are prompting many companies to rethink their supply chains. As tariffs begin to make China look more expensive, many companies are considering cheaper places to make their products, like Vietnam, Cambodia, Bangladesh and Ethiopia. Already, companies with significant American business like Steve Madden, the fashion designer, and Puma, the German sports brand, have said they will look to shift production out of China.
特朗普总统对中国产品征收的关税于周一扩大到价值2000亿美元的商品，这促使许多公司重新考虑其供应链。由于关税，在中国生产看上去更加昂贵，许多公司正考虑在更便宜的地点生产其产品，如越南、柬埔寨、孟加拉国和埃塞俄比亚。时装设计师史蒂夫·马登(Steve Madden)和德国体育品牌彪马(Puma)等在美国拥有重要业务的公司已经表示，他们希望将生产转移到中国之外。
But China will be hard to quit. From zippers and rivets on jackets and jeans to the minerals used in iPhones, China makes or processes many of the ingredients that go into today’s consumer goods. It has a dependable source of workers who know how to hold down factory jobs. It has reliable roads and rail lines connecting suppliers to assembly plants to ports.
但要退出中国没那么容易。从夹克和牛仔裤上的拉链和铆钉，到iPhone中使用的矿物质，如今消费品中有许多成分是中国制造或加工的。它拥有可靠的工人来源，他们知道如何从事工厂工作。它拥有可靠的公路和铁路线，将供应商与装配厂连接到港口。
Countries like Vietnam and Cambodia, by contrast, lack China’s vast supplier base and dependable roads. More workers have to be trained. Many companies have to start from scratch.
相比之下，越南和柬埔寨等国家缺乏中国庞大的供应商基础和可靠的道路。必须培训更多的工人。许多公司必须从头开始。
“When I came here in the beginning, it was a nightmare,” said Elli Bobrovizki, who runs a factory in Phnom Penh that makes Bloch ballet shoes.
“最初来到这里的时候，简直是一场噩梦，”在金边经营一家生产Bloch芭蕾舞鞋的工厂的埃利·博布罗维兹基(Elli Bobrovizki)说。
Getting the pink ballet slippers and black jazz shoes out to places like the United States takes at least a day or two longer than it would in China, he said. To reach his factory, a visitor has to travel down a bumpy dirt road.
他说，将粉红色的芭蕾舞鞋和黑色爵士舞鞋送到美国这样的地方，需要的时间比中国至少要多出一两天。别人要来他的工厂，必须沿着崎岖不平的土路行驶。
Inside, hundreds of workers cut leather from Brazil, then glue and carefully pinch, gather and hammer it into soles. The work could be partly automated, but the labor is cheap.
在工厂里，数百名工人切割着从巴西运来的皮革，然后小心地把它们胶合在一起，再敲打成鞋底。这项工作可以部分实现自动化，但劳动力非常便宜。
One day a few years ago Mr. Bobrovizki arrived at his factory to find several unions had locked it. Negotiations took weeks. In Cambodia some unions are backed by the party of Hun Sen, the prime minister, adding to political risks for foreign companies.
几年前的一天，博布罗维兹基来到他的工厂，发现几个工会关闭了它。谈判耗时数周。在柬埔寨，一些工会得到了总理洪森的党的支持，这增加了外国公司的政治风险。
“I lost half a million dollars in those two weeks that they blocked my gate,” Mr. Bobrovizki said.
博布罗维兹基说：“在这两个星期里，他们关闭了我的工厂，让我损失了50万美元。”
Companies are not looking to leave China just because of the trade war. Average wages have risen by about one-third in recent years, according to official data. The average Chinese factory worker makes roughly $10,000 a year, the official data shows. By contrast, the minimum wage for Cambodian garment workers amounts to about one-fifth of that. But rising tariffs, and the prospect of more on the horizon, add to the urgency.
这些公司打算离开中国，并不只是由于贸易战。官方数据显示，中国近年来平均工资增长了约三分之一。官方数据还显示，中国普通工厂工人每年平均收入大约为一万美元。相比之下，柬埔寨服装工人的最低工资约为其五分之一。但是，不断上升的关税，以及还会进一步增加的前景，加剧了这种紧迫性。
“People are desperate to get out of China,” said Spencer Fung of Li & Fung, a go-between for Western companies and factories in developing countries.
“人们迫切希望离开中国，”利丰公司的冯裕钧(Spencer Fung)说，该公司是西方公司和发展中国家工厂的中间人。
One American company recently told a supplier with a factory in Phnom Penh that it wants to take its China production down to zero as soon as possible in order to avoid tariffs, said Bradley Gordon, a lawyer who advises multinational companies in Cambodia. That Phnom Penh factory plans to hire 1,000 more workers in the next month and employ nearly 10,000 workers by next year.
最近，一家美国公司告诉在金边设有工厂的供应商，为了避免关税，它希望尽快将其中国产量降至零，为柬埔寨跨国公司提供咨询服务的律师布拉德利·戈登(Bradley Gordon)说。金边工厂计划在下个月再招聘1000名工人，到明年工人总数达到将近一万。
Still, China remains an efficient place to do business. Its logistics network is vast and quick-moving. Over the past three decades, China has built 4.7 million kilometers, or about 2.9 million miles, of highways. It has 13 of the world’s 50 largest ports, and three of the top five.
中国仍然是做生意的高效之地。那里的物流网络庞大而快速。在过去的30年中，中国建造了470万公里的高速公路。它拥有世界上50个最大的港口中的13个，以及前五个最大港口中的三个。
China’s sheer manufacturing capabilities are unrivaled. One measure of its output, called manufacturing value added, shows that China makes roughly as much as the United States and Japan combined.
仅以制造能力而言，中国是无与伦比的。其产量的一个衡量标准，所谓制造业增加值，显示中国的产量大致相当于美国与日本之和。
“The entire supply chain is based in China, so if we were to move, we would still have to procure components in China, and then export them somewhere else,” said Aaron Emigh, co-founder of Brilliant, an American start-up that makes smart-home devices. Brilliant is releasing its product just as the Trump administration’s tariffs take effect.
“整个供应链都以中国为基地，所以如果我们搬迁，我们仍然需要在中国采购零部件，然后将其出口到其他地方，”美国生产智能家居设备的初创公司Brilliant的联合创始人阿伦·埃迈(Aaron Emigh)说。该公司刚好将在特朗普政府的关税生效时发布其产品。
“Moving out of China is not purely a matter of cost, but of possibility,” he added. “离开中国不仅仅是成本问题，还是个可能性的问题，”他补充道。
Brilliant’s devices have more than 700 components, most of which are sourced in China. The country offers the best manufacturing options for some of Brilliant’s most technical needs, like printing circuit boards, injection-molded plastics, screens and modules.
Brilliant的设备有700多个组件，其中大部分来自中国。该国为Brilliant的一些技术要求最高的部分提供了最佳选择，如印刷电路板、注塑塑料、屏幕和模块。
Some companies believe they have to look for alternatives no matter how appealing China can be.
一些公司认为，无论中国有多吸引人，他们都必须寻找替代方案。
Inventec, a Taiwanese electronics manufacturer of laptops and devices for companies like HP, Toshiba and Acer, has drawn up contingency plans to move China production to Taiwan, the Czech Republic, Mexico and Houston, according to Ada Chang, a spokeswoman.
英业达是为惠普、东芝和宏碁等公司提供笔记本电脑和设备的台湾电子产品制造商，据其发言人艾达·张(Ada Chang)称，它已制定应急计划，将在中国生产的产品转移到台湾、捷克共和国、墨西哥和休斯敦。
Moving the entire supply chain out of China would be too complicated, she said. But Inventec could assemble the final product in other places so the “country of origin” certificate would not say China, she said.
她表示，将整个供应链从中国转移出来将过于复杂。但她说，英业达可以在其他地方组装最终产品，因此“原产国”证书上不会写中国。
Peter Baum knows well the challenges of operating in a country like Cambodia. An owner of Baum-Essex, a company that makes umbrellas for Costco and cotton bags for Walmart in contracted factories in Vietnam and Cambodia, he gets frustrated when he has to turn to multiple countries for the parts and material he needs because it means more opportunity for delays.
彼得·鲍姆(Peter Baum)非常清楚在柬埔寨这样的国家经营的挑战。他是鲍姆-埃塞克斯(Baum-Essex)公司的老板，该公司在越南和柬埔寨的代工厂为好市多(Costco)生产雨伞，为沃尔玛生产棉布袋，不得不到多个国家寻找他需要的零件和材料让他感到很头疼，因为这意味着更多延误的可能性。
“It is the worst nightmare known to man,” Mr. Baum said. He recently finished an order for umbrellas for Costco. The wood handles from Italy were delayed. The polyester from Taiwan was the wrong pattern.
“这是我所知道的最糟糕的噩梦，”鲍姆说。他最近刚刚为好市多完成了雨伞订单。来自意大利的木柄延误了。来自台湾的聚酯面料图案是错的。
“I probably lost a couple of hundred thousand on the transaction,” he said.
“我可能在交易中损失了几十万，”他说。
Cambodia’s lack of development in many areas adds its own complications.
柬埔寨在许多地区不够发达，这增加了问题的复杂性。
Mr. Holten, the manufacturer whose company makes products for Oakley, decided to open a factory in Cambodia in 2010. His competitors thought he was crazy, he said, because China was still cheap. “I saw the writing on the wall,” said Mr. Holten, whose company, Pactics, still makes cloth bags for Burberry in China.
为奥克利生产产品的霍尔滕在2010年决定在柬埔寨开设工厂。他说，他的竞争对手认为他很疯狂，因为在中国生产仍然很便宜。霍尔滕说：“我看到了迹象，”他的公司Pactics仍然为在中国为博柏利(Burberry)制作布袋。
Still, it was not easy, he said. There was no infrastructure, no power and no space appropriate to rent. Pactics had to build its own factory with a water purification system, solar panels and a separate power generator. The project took a year and cost $960,000.
不过，他说这并不容易。这里没有基础设施、没有电力、也没有合适的空间可租。Pactics必须自己建造工厂，配备水净化系统、太阳能电池板和独立的发电机。工程耗时一年，耗资96万美元。
It was worth it, Mr. Holten said. “If we were still in China,” he said, “we’d be out of business.”
霍尔滕说，这是值得的。“如果还在中国，”他说，“我们现在已经要倒闭了。”
Transition in Cambodia has been slow. Paradoxically, one source of change may be China itself, as it looks to win political favor in Southeast Asia. During an official visit this year, Li Keqiang, China’s premier, pledged to build a new expressway from Phnom Penh to Sihanoukville to supplement the Khmer-American Friendship Highway.
柬埔寨的过渡进展缓慢。矛盾的是，一个变化的来源可能是来自中国本身，因为它似乎在东南亚谋求政治支持。在今年的一次正式访问中，中国总理李克强承诺将建设一条从金边到西哈努克的高速公路，作为高棉-美国友谊公路的补充。
More foreign companies have called or emailed Ken Loo, secretary general at the Garment Manufacturers Association in Cambodia, in recent months about doing business there. His advice: Be realistic.
最近几个月，越来越多的外国公司致电或通过电子邮件向柬埔寨服装制造商协会秘书长肯·卢(Ken Loo)发送电子邮件。他的建议是：要面对现实。
“It’s not like going into the shop to buy something and you just go to the next shop,” Mr. Loo said. Starting a factory from scratch, he said, “takes months, if not a year and a half.”
“这不像是去商店买东西，只要去下一家商店买就可以，”卢说。从零开始办工厂，“需要几个月甚至一年半时间。”
