不生孩子、不约会：中国迎来“消费降级”时代？

Chen Siqi doesn’t eat out so much anymore. Li Keli cut down on travel and takes her son to a public playground instead. Wang Jiazhi stopped dating.

陈思琦不怎么出去吃饭了。利可丽减少了旅游开支，转而带儿子去公共游乐场。王家志不再出去约会了。

Welcome to China’s “consumption downgrade” culture, a potentially worrisome development for Beijing and the world.

欢迎了解中国的“消费降级”文化，这一发展对北京和世界来说可能是一个令人担忧的问题。

For years, the conversation in China was about “consumption upgrades.” As the economy took off, China’s middle class — now more than 400 million strong and still growing — decided to spend those bigger paychecks. It traded up from local brands to Nikes, from cheap phones to iPhones, from tea to $5 Starbucks lattes.

多年来，中国讲的都是“消费升级”。随着经济起飞，中国的中产阶级——如今超过4亿人，并且仍在不断增长——决定把自己增加的收入花出去。中产阶级把国产牌子换成了耐克，便宜手机换成了iPhone，茶叶换成了5美元的星巴克拿铁。

Today, China’s economy is slowing, and shopping has slowed with it. The stock market is slumping. China’s currency has lost some of its value. The trade war with President Trump has left many Chinese feeling pessimistic.

如今，中国的经济正在放缓，消费也随之降温。股市暴跌。中国的货币贬值。与特朗普总统的贸易战让许多中国人感到悲观。

China’s consumer culture has by no means ground to a halt. But in the streets and on the Chinese internet, the talk is about cutting back in ways big and small.

中国的消费文化并没有停止。但在街头和中国的互联网上，人们谈论的是从大大小小各个方面减少开支。

Quit avocado. Ride bikes instead of taxis. Drink beer instead of cocktails — and make sure that beer isn’t craft. Order a medium-size milk tea instead of a large. Give up the gym, and take up dancing in public squares like a grandmother. Some people joke about eating meat instead of tofu, as American tariffs have made imported soybeans more expensive. Perhaps most worrisome for China’s leaders, many young Chinese are increasingly reluctant to have children.

不吃牛油果。骑车而不是打车。喝啤酒，不喝鸡尾酒——而且还不要精酿啤酒。点中杯奶茶，不点大杯。放弃健身房，像大妈那样去跳广场舞。一些人开玩笑说要用吃肉替代豆腐，因为美国关税已经让进口大豆变得更加昂贵。可能对中国领导人来说最为忧心的，就是年轻中国人越来越不愿生孩子。

A post headlined “This Generation of Young Chinese, Brace for the Bitter Days Ahead,” by Ma Ning, a blogger, received more than 300,000 views on the social media platform WeChat last weekend. She advised young people to stop going to shopping malls and nightclubs.

上周末，博主麻宁一篇题为《这届年轻人，做好过苦日子的准备吧》的文章在社交媒体平台上收到了超过30万条评论。她建议年轻人不要再去商场和夜店了。

“The age of the consumption downgrade,” Ms. Ma wrote, “has arrived with a big crashing sound.”

麻宁写道，“消费降级时代，也随之轰然而来。”

Chen Siqi hears the message. A 30-year-old accountant in Beijing, she recently bought a garbage bin on Pinduoduo, a Chinese app focused on cheap, sometimes iffy goods that initially enjoyed appeal only in rural areas. She makes about $1,400 a month after taxes, but nearly half of it goes to the rent on her one-bedroom apartment.

陈思琦收到了这些信息。30岁的她在北京当会计，最近她在拼多多上买了一个垃圾桶。拼多多是一款中国的应用软件，主营各种便宜的，有时候较为可疑的商品，起初仅在农村地区受到欢迎。她的每月税后收入约为1400美元，但其中近一半都用于缴纳一居室公寓的房租。

Ms. Chen said she had reached the age when she wanted to live in her own apartment instead of sharing with others. To save money, she now cooks at home a few times a week and buys clothes mostly from cheap online vendors and the Japanese basics brand Uniqlo.

陈思琦说她已经到了想自己住，而不是跟其他人合租的年纪。为了省钱，她现在每周会有几次在家做饭，几乎都是在从网上和日本基础品牌优衣库那里买便宜衣服。

“I would like to have a nicer lifestyle but don’t know how I can afford it,” she said.

“我希望能负担更好的生活，但没有能力，”她说。

A Chinese consumption downgrade could be felt around the world. Chinese spenders have been a key driver of their country’s economic growth in recent years. China, in turn, has played a major role in global growth. Chinese consumers help global companies like Apple, General Motors, Volkswagen and many others. A consumption downgrade could also embolden Mr. Trump in his trade fight with China, as he gambles that Beijing can’t take much more economic damage.

世界各地都能感受到中国的消费降级。近年来，中国的消费者一直是中国经济增长的主要动力。而中国也在全球增长中发挥重要作用。中国消费者帮助了许多跨国公司，例如苹果(Apple)、通用汽车(General Motors)、大众(Volkswagen)等等。消费降级还可能会让特朗普在中美贸易战中变得更加大胆，他赌北京无法再承受更多经济损失。

On paper, the Chinese economy looks strong. Look closer, and the cracks begin to show. Retail sales this year have grown at their slowest pace in more than a decade. Wages in the private sector are growing at their slowest pace since the global financial crisis. The stock market has fallen by one-fifth.

表面上看，中国经济看起来很强劲。仔细看，裂缝开始显现。今年的零售额增长速度为十多年来最缓慢的。私营部门的工资增长速度为自全球金融危机以来最慢。股票市场下跌了五分之一。

Last week, JD.com, a Chinese e-commerce company, reported disappointing quarterly results. JD.com’s focus is providing China’s growing middle class with quality products. Investors are watching closely to see whether the Alibaba Group, China’s biggest online retailer, will report weak results as well on Thursday.

上周，中国电子商务公司京东公布了令人失望的季度业绩。京东主打为中国日益壮大的中产阶级提供优质产品。投资者正在密切关注中国最大的在线零售商阿里巴巴集团是否也会在周四公布疲软的业绩。

Long-term factors are driving down spending among young people in particular. The cost of education is going up. Housing in rich cities like Beijing has become unaffordable for many.

长期因素尤其正在拉低年轻人的支出。教育成本正在上涨。像北京这样的富裕城市的住房对许多人来说已经负担不起了。

Housing is so expensive that Wang Jiazhi moved out of his own home. A 34-year-old semiconductor engineer in the southern city of Shenzhen, he bought a one-bedroom apartment in 2016. In addition to a mortgage of more than $700 a month, he needs to pay his relatives back for the money he borrowed for the down payment. So he rents his apartment and shares a four-bedroom apartment with nine other men. This way, Mr. Wang — who makes about $2,000 a month after taxes — saves $160 a month.

住房过于昂贵，以至于王家志搬出了自己的房子。34岁的他是深圳的一名半导体工程师，2016年他购买了一套一居室公寓。除了每月700多美元的房贷外，他还需要偿还为了首付款向亲戚借的钱。所以他出租了自己的公寓，和另外九个人合租了一套四居室公寓。这样，每月税后收入约2000美元的王家志每个月可以省下160美元。

Like many Chinese men, Mr. Wang believes he needs an apartment in order to find a wife. But he is under so much pressure with his mortgage and debt, and with supporting his aging parents in the countryside, that he has had to postpone his plan for marriage. His prospects weren’t good anyway: To save money, he has stopped dating.

和许多中国男性一样，王家志认为他需要一套公寓才能找到妻子。但是他因为抵押贷款、债务，以及要在农村赡养年迈的父母而承受着巨大的压力，他不得不推迟结婚的计划。无论怎样，他的前景反正也不好：为了省钱，他已经不约会了。

“I work long hours every day,” he said. “It makes me feel occupied.”

“我每天都要工作很长时间，”他说。“这让我觉得完全没有空。”

So the consumption downgrade is in. Even as China’s stock market has sputtered, shares in companies that make affordable staples like erguotou, a cheap hard liquor, and pickled vegetables have bucked the trend.

所以消费降级开始了。就在中国股市动荡之际，廉价烈酒二锅头和泡菜等廉价常备食品生产商的股票却逆潮流而动。

“Drink erguotou with pickled vegetables,” said Ms. Na, the blogger, quoting popular Chinese internet memes. “Take a ride with Mobike,” she added, naming a bike-share company that offers two-wheeled rides for pennies.

“榨菜就着二锅头，”博客作者麻宁引用网上的流行语说。“骑上摩拜遛一遛，”她补充道。摩拜是一家以几毛钱的价格提供双轮骑行的单车共享公司。

Even the only children of middle-class families, a group that is largely financially secure, can feel anxious about their future.

即使是中产阶级家庭的独生子女——一个基本上有经济保障的群体——也会对他们的未来感到焦虑。

Wu Xiaoqiong, 28, is the only child of a civil servant and a doctor in the eastern province of Hebei. She works at a big internet company in Beijing with monthly pay of $1,500 after taxes.

28岁的吴小琼是东部河北省的一名公务员和一名医生的独生女。她在北京一家大型互联网公司工作，税后月薪1500美元。

When she got married last year, her parents and her husband’s parents each put in half of the down payment for a one-bedroom apartment — a typical arrangement for many Chinese middle-class families. Nearly two-thirds of the couple’s monthly income goes to the mortgage and toward the rent of a small apartment in Shanghai, where her husband works at a state-owned bank.

去年结婚时，她的父母和丈夫的父母各付一半的首付，买下了一套一居室公寓——这是许多中国中产阶级家庭的典型安排。这对夫妇近三分之二的月收入用于房贷和上海一套小公寓的租金，她的丈夫在一家国有银行工作。

Her consumption downgrade plan is to remain childless.

她的消费降级计划是不生孩子。

“We have almost no savings and no retirement plans,” she said. “My parents have been supporting me financially. How can I afford a child?”

“我们几乎没有积蓄，没有考虑养老，”她说。“我父母一直在帮我，还怎么要小孩?”

Others are saying no to bigger households — a problem for a Chinese government worried about the country’s aging population.

其他人也在拒绝生更多孩子——这对于担心中国人口老龄化现象的中国政府来说，是一个问题。

When asked whether she would consider having a second child, Li Keli, an accountant at an electronics maker in the southern city of Huizhou, said, “Absolutely not.” Her factory laid off two-thirds of its workers in June when the United States-China trade war escalated. Her monthly pay of $500 was cut by 10 percent. She used to take her son, 7, to visit nearby cities on weekends. Now she takes him to the playgrounds of big residential complexes because they’re free.

当被问及她是否会考虑生二胎时，南方城市惠州一家电子制造商的会计利可丽说，“打死我也不干。”6月，当中美贸易战升级时，她所在的工厂裁掉了三分之二的工人。她每月500美元的工资降薪10%。她过去常常在周末带7岁的儿子去附近的城市旅游。现在她带他去大型住宅小区的游乐场，因为免费。

Many high earners feel anxious as well. Chen Ying, 33, an architect in Shanghai, said her consumption downgrade plan involved not shopping in department stores.

许多高收入者也感到焦虑。33岁的陈颖是上海的一名建筑师，她说她的消费降级计划包括不在百货商店购物。

Ms. Chen said she did not expect her pay to rise too much. Her younger colleagues do not make as much as when she first started four years ago, and her pay now is lower than that of older colleagues with similar experience four years ago.

陈颖说，她预计自己未来不会涨多少工资。她的年轻同事挣的钱还不如她四年前刚参加工作时的多，而她现在的工资也低于四年前拥有相似工作资历的年长同事。

She used to get pay raises of 15 percent to 20 percent a year — rates that weren’t uncommon at fast-growing industries in China in the past decade. Now she expects the raises to be 5 percent, if she gets them at all. She has started to think about retirement, but doesn’t know where to begin.

她过去每年加薪15%到20%，在过去10年里，这在中国快速增长的行业中并不少见。现在她希望加薪5%，如果她能得到加薪的话。她已经开始考虑退休的事，但不知道从哪里开始。

“In the past we had many inflated expectations,” she said. “Now we don’t expect so much.”

“以前我们有很多膨胀的期望，”她说。“现在没有那么多期望了。”