特朗普考虑对2000亿美元中国商品征收25%关税
Mr. Trump instructed the United States trade representative to look into increasing tariffs on Chinese imports like fish, petroleum, chemicals, handbags and other goods to 25 percent, a significant step in a dispute that is beginning to take a toll on industries and consumers in both countries. A final decision on the size and scope of the tariffs is not expected before September.
特朗普指示美国贸易代表考虑鱼类、石油、化工产品、手袋和其他中国进口商品的关税提高到25%的方案，这是在一场开始损害两国企业和消费者的争端中迈出的重要一步。有关关税的规模和范围的最终决定，预计将在9月前作出。
The effort to further punish China is being led by hard-line advisers to Mr. Trump, who believe inflicting painful measures on Beijing is the best way to force it back to the negotiating table on trade. But that approach is once again creating fissures within Mr. Trump’s own team, with his Treasury secretary, Steven Mnuchin, adamantly opposed to ratcheting up the tariffs and Peter Navarro, a key trade adviser, advocating the higher duties, people with knowledge of the discussions said. Stephen K. Bannon, who left the White House last August, has also been counseling the president to pursue tougher tariffs, according to people familiar with his thinking. 特朗普顾问中的强硬派主导了进一步惩罚中国的行动，他们认为，对北京施加痛苦的举措是迫使它回到贸易谈判桌的最佳方式。据知情人士透露，这种做法再次在特朗普团队内部造成了分裂，财政部长史蒂文·马努钦(Steven Mnuchin)坚决反对提高关税，而主要贸易顾问彼得·纳瓦罗(Peter Navarro)则主张加税。据了解其想法的人说，去年8月离开白宫的斯蒂芬·班农(Stephen K. Bannon)也一直建议特朗普总统提高关税。
The potential for a 25 percent tax is being fueled by deep frustration within the Trump administration over its unsuccessful attempts to press China to change its trade practices, as well as by a sharp decline in the value of China’s currency. Administration officials have also been concerned that China may be manipulating prices of commodities like soybeans to harm American farmers, and hurting American companies through regulatory practices — for example, detaining shipments of agricultural products in customs until they rot. 特朗普政府对于未能成功迫使中国改变其贸易做法深感失望，加之人民币汇率大幅下跌，都是可能征收25%关税的推动因素。政府官员还担心，中国可能操纵大豆等大宗商品的价格，伤害美国农民的利益，并通过监管措施伤害美国企业，比如将农产品扣在海关直至腐烂。
“We have been very clear about the specific changes China should undertake,” Robert Lighthizer, the United States trade representative, said in a statement Wednesday. “Regrettably, instead of changing its harmful behavior, China has illegally retaliated against U.S. workers, farmers, ranchers and businesses.” “我们一直很清楚中国应该进行的具体改革，”美国贸易代表罗伯特·莱特希泽(Robert Lighthizer)周三在一份声明中表示。“令人遗憾的是，中国非但没有改变其有害行为，反而非法报复美国的工人、农民、农场主和企业。”
Since formal talks between Beijing and Washington broke down in May, Mr. Trump has doubled down on his threats, saying he is prepared to impose tariffs on all Chinese imports. Beijing has promised to retaliate with its own measures, and both countries have already imposed tariffs on $34 billion worth of each other’s products. 自今年5月中美之间的正式谈判破裂以来，特朗普已将威胁加码，称他准备对所有的中国进口商品征收关税。北京已经放话，要采取报复措施，两国已经对彼此价值340亿美元的产品征收关税。
“China’s position is firm and clear: Pressure and blackmail from the U.S. won’t work,” Geng Shuang, a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said at a briefing on Wednesday in Beijing in response to reports about the 25 percent tariffs. “If the U.S. takes a further and upgraded move, China would definitely retaliate to safeguard our legal rights.” “中方在中美经贸问题的立场是非常坚定、明确的，没有改变。美方的施压和讹诈不会起作用，”中国外交部发言人耿爽周三在北京的一个新闻发布会上，就25%的关税报道作出回应时称。“如果美方采取进一步升级举动，中方必然会予以反制，坚决维护我们的正当合法权益。”
Mr. Trump privately told advisers this week that he was intent on staying the course to punish China with additional tariffs. Mr. Mnuchin has been advising against such a move, preferring to try to engage with his Chinese counterparts to resolve their differences. 特朗普本周私下告诉他的顾问，自己有意坚持通过提高关税来惩罚中国。马努钦一直建议不要这样做，他更愿意与中国同行展开接触，解决双方的分歧。
But his hand has been weakened by a recent and rapid depreciation in China’s currency, which helps to make Chinese goods cheaper in foreign markets and buoys exports. That has given hard-liners inside and outside the administration an opening to advocate even higher penalties. 但他的手段被近期中国货币迅速贬值削弱了，贬值让中国商品在外国市场上变得更便宜，并且提振了出口。这给了特朗普政府内外强硬派一个机会，让他们得以推动更高额的惩罚关税。
The Chinese currency fell to a 13-month low against the dollar this week. The move came partly because of market forces, but also because China has been allowing the heavily managed value of its currency, the renminbi, to slide in currency markets in recent weeks. 人民币兑美元的汇率本周跌至13个月以来的最低点。这一举措的出现，部分是因为市场力量，但还因为中国一直在允许该国严加管控的人民币近几周内在货币市场下滑。
Mr. Trump strongly warned China against further depreciation of its currency as part of a flurry of early-morning tweets nearly two weeks ago. 近两周前，在一连串早间推文中，特朗普强烈警告中国不要让其货币进一步贬值。
Scott Kennedy, a China expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that ratcheting up tariffs to 25 percent would put substantial pressure on Chinese leaders to devalue their currency even more, to help offset any further losses to exporters. “We can expect further depreciation and vigorous internal debates about a one-off devaluation,” Mr. Kennedy said. 国际战略研究中心(Strategic and International Studies)的中国专家斯科特·肯尼迪(Scott Kennedy)表示，将关税涨至25%会给中国领导人带来巨大压力，为了帮助抵消未来出口商出现的损失，他们会让货币进一步贬值。“我们能预见到会继续出现贬值，以及内部关于一次性贬值的激烈讨论，”肯尼迪说。
The message from the White House is “we can raise tariffs faster than you can devalue,” said Derek Scissors, a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute. 白宫的意思是“我们提高关税的速度比你们货币贬值快，”美国企业研究所(American Enterprise Institute)史剑道(Derek Scissors)说。
The 25 percent tariffs on $200 billion worth of imports would come on top of the existing penalties on $34 billion worth of products and an additional $16 billion that are scheduled to go into effect soon. China has vowed to respond to any trade measures in kind, and it has already imposed its own tariffs on $34 billion worth of American soybeans, pork, electric vehicles and other goods. 对价值2000亿美元的进口商品征收25%的关税会在现行惩罚的基础上进行。目前美国对价值340亿美元的商品征收惩罚性关税，另有对价值160亿美元商品的关税将很快生效。中国已经誓言要以同样的方式对任何贸易措施作出回应，并且已经对价值340亿美元的美国大豆、猪肉、电动汽车及其他商品加征了关税。
The administration’s trade moves are aimed at forcing China to end what it calls unfair trade practices, including improperly obtaining American intellectual property. Mr. Trump’s advisers argue that past administrations have failed to sway China with diplomacy and that the United States must be prepared to take a tough stance to change its course, even if it hurts American businesses and customers in the short term. 政府的贸易举措旨在迫使中国结束它所称的不公平贸易行为，包括不正当地获取美国知识产权。特朗普的顾问认为，过去的政府未能通过外交手段影响中国，因此美国现在必须准备采取强硬立场，改变中国的方针，即使这样会在短期内伤害美国企业和消费者。
On Wednesday, Congress passed legislation that will strengthen national security-related checks on Chinese investment in the United States, a move that is also aimed at curbing China’s ability to capture valuable American technology. 周三，国会通过立法，加强对中国在美投资的相关国家安全检查，此举亦旨在遏制中国获取有价值的美国技术的能力。
The Americans and the Chinese have been carrying out back-channel talks over how to resolve their differences, but both sides remain hesitant to embrace more formal negotiations. At present, the discussion is mostly centered on whether more formal talks should resume. 美中一直在就如何解决分歧进行非官方渠道谈判，但双方仍在犹豫是否接受更为正式的谈判。目前，讨论主要集中在是否应恢复更正式的会谈。
Mr. Mnuchin spoke casually with the Chinese delegation at the Group of 20 summit meeting last week and said he had been in touch with Liu He, a high-ranking Chinese official charged with negotiating with the United States, to see if he would be at the meeting. However, China decided not to send its most senior officials to the meeting, so no bilateral discussion was held, Mr. Mnuchin said. 在上周举行的20国集团(Group of 20)首脑会议上，马努钦与中国代表团进行了随意的交谈，并表示他和负责与美方谈判的中国高级官员刘鹤保持着联系，看他是否参加该会议。但是，马努钦说，中国决定不派遣其最高级别官员参加会议，因此双边讨论没有发生。
China has been looking for solutions that would end the trade fight without requiring the country to make policy concessions that might limit the country’s economic growth, according to people familiar with Chinese economic policymaking, who were not authorized to speak publicly. 据熟悉中国经济决策的人士称，中国一直寻求在结束贸易战的同时，不用做出可能限制国家经济增长的政策让步，由于未获公开发言的授权，此人要求不公开姓名。
Mr. Geng said on Wednesday that China remains eager to find a resolution to the dispute. “China has always been suggesting to use dialogue to resolve trade issues — our efforts and our sincerity are clear to be seen by the international world,” he said. “At the same time, we have to emphasize, our dialogue must be based on mutual respect and equality, on rules and on credibility. Unilateral threats and pressure will only lead in the opposite direction from what we wished.” 耿爽于周三表示，中国仍渴望找到解决争端的方式。“中方始终主张通过对话协商处理中美之间的贸易摩擦，我们为此作出的努力和展示的诚意，国际社会非常清楚，”他说。“同时我要强调，对话必须建立在相互尊重和平等的基础上，建立在规则之上，建立在信用之上。单方面威胁和施压只会适得其反。”
While the tariffs are aimed at hurting China, they are also having an impact on American consumers and businesses that rely on products from China’s factories. Farmers and manufacturers, in particular, have complained that they are bearing the brunt of the trade war as China raises the price on imported soybeans and other agriculture products that it typically buys from farms and on materials and products imported by manufacturers to make machinery, clothes and other products. 虽然关税旨在伤害中国，但它们也对依赖中国工厂产品的美国消费者和企业产生了影响。特别是农民和制造商抱怨他们在贸易战中首当其冲，因为中国提高了通常从这些农场购买的进口大豆和其他农产品的价格;此外还提高了制造商生产机械、服装和其他产品所需的材料和产品的价格。
“Increasing the size of the tariffs is merely increasing the harm that will be done,” said Matthew Shay, the president of the National Retail Federation. “Tariffs are an unacceptable gamble with the U.S. economy, and the stakes continue to rise with no end in sight.” “增加关税规模只会增加将要造成的伤害，”全国零售商联合会(National Retail Federation)主席马修·谢伊(Matthew Shay)说。“对于美国经济来说，关税是不可接受的赌博，赌注持续上升，看不到尽头。”
Last week, the Trump administration announced it would offer farmers up to $12 billion in subsidies to help compensate them for losses incurred as a result of the trade measures. But to offer the same level of aid to other industries that have been affected by retaliation from abroad, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce estimated in an analysis that it would cost the administration an additional $27 billion. 上周，特朗普政府宣布将向农民提供高达120亿美元的补贴，帮助补偿他们因贸易措施而遭受的损失。但是，美国商会在一项分析中估计，要向受海外报复影响的其他行业提供相同水平的援助，政府需要再花270亿美元。
A public hearing about the $200 billion list is scheduled for late August, when American companies and individuals will be able to tell the United States trade representative which products they think should be on or off the list. 关于2000亿美元关税名单的公开听证会定于8月底举行，届时美国公司和个人将能够告诉美国贸易代表，他们认为哪些产品应该在列表之中或之外。
