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美国官员称朝鲜仍在生产导弹及核燃料

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2018年08月06日

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WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump has consistently touted the results of his North Korean diplomacy, insisting since his June summit meeting with Kim Jong Un that Pyongyang is no longer a nuclear threat and noting that its missile tests have stopped. 华盛顿——唐纳德·特朗普总统一直在吹嘘其朝鲜外交政策的成功,坚称自他六月与金正恩(Kim Jong Un)的峰会后,平壤就不再是一个核威胁了,并且还指出该国导弹试验已经终止。

But like other foreign policy assertions from the White House, reality has proved more complicated. 但正如白宫的其他外交政策一样,事实证明,现实要复杂得多。

North Korea has continued its work on missile and weapons programs since the leaders met, American officials say, including manufacturing new intercontinental ballistic missiles at a facility near Pyongyang, the capital, according to one Defense Department official. And North Korea continues to produce nuclear fuel, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo told senators last week. 美国官员表示,自两位领导人举行会晤后,朝鲜一直在继续导弹及武器计划方面的工作,据一名国防部官员称,这包括在首都平壤附近一处的设施中生产新的洲际弹道导弹。此外,上周国务卿迈克·庞皮欧(Mike Pompeo)告诉参议员们,朝鲜仍在继续生产核燃料。

Kim has little interest in giving up the North’s nuclear arsenal or rolling back its progress on ICBMs, experts who have long studied North Korea’s government and its missile programs believe. The North’s weapons work, including at a facility that creates ICBMs, has continued in the weeks after the summit between Trump and Kim, said Jeffrey Lewis, an arms control expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey in California. 长期研究朝鲜政府及其导弹计划的专家们认为,金正恩没什么放弃朝鲜核武库,或是收回在洲际弹道导弹方面取得进步的意思。加利福尼亚州明德大学蒙特雷国际研究学院(Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey)的武器控制专家杰弗里·刘易斯(Jeffrey Lewis)表示,朝鲜的武器工作,包括一处生产洲际弹道导弹的设施,在特朗普和金正恩峰会后数周一直在运转。

American officials said they have not seen an increase in work in recent weeks but have watched the programs proceed at the same pace as in previous months. In particular, work on one to two ICBMs at Sanumdong, a missile manufacturing facility on the outskirts of Pyongyang, is consistent with the facility’s activity before the summit, the Defense Department official said. The work on the new missiles was first reported by The Washington Post. 美国官员表示,他们近几周没有看到朝鲜的核武器工作出现增多,但看到这些计划推进的速度与此前几个月一样。尤其是在沙门洞进行的一至两枚洲际弹道导弹生产。沙门洞是平壤郊外一处导弹生产设施。新导弹方面的工作是由《华盛顿邮报》(The Washington Post)率先报道的。

Some Trump administration officials have been frustrated that North Korea has continued its weapons work, viewing it as a violation of the spirit of the agreement between Kim and Trump. 一些特朗普政府官员对朝鲜继续生产武器表示不满,称此举违背了金正恩与特朗普协议的精神。

But other American officials and outside experts said it should have been expected that North Korea would continue work at its missile facilities because Kim made no explicit agreement to halt the manufacturing of its missile systems or nuclear fuel. 但也有一些美国官员及外部专家表示,朝鲜继续在导弹设施的活动是可以预见的,因为金正恩没有明确同意暂停导弹系统或核燃料生产。

“They are expanding everything,” Lewis said. “And to be fair, they have never said they agreed to give up nuclear weapons. The South Koreans have said the North Koreans have agreed to give up nuclear weapons. Trump has said they have agreed to give them up. But they have never said it.” “他们在全面扩张,”刘易斯表示。“公平来说,他们从未说过要放弃核武器。韩国人说过朝鲜人已经同意要放弃核武器。特朗普说过他们同意放弃。但朝鲜自己从没这么说过。”

The North’s big investment in its nuclear program in recent years made it unlikely it would undertake an abrupt change of gears, Lewis said. Since Kim came to power, there has been a steady increase in North Korea’s investment in missile technology and nuclear arms. 刘易斯表示,朝鲜近年来在核计划上的大量投资,使其不大可能突然做出改变。自从金正恩掌权以来,朝鲜在导弹技术和核武器方面的投资稳步增加。

Trump has played up the results of his meeting with Kim, posting on Twitter afterward: “There is no longer a Nuclear Threat from North Korea.” Since then, Trump has said that North Korea has made progress in the promises Kim made to him. 特朗普夸大了与金正恩的会谈结果,会面结束后他在Twitter上发帖称:“朝鲜不再构成核威胁。”自那以后,特朗普一直说,在金正恩对他作出的承诺上,朝鲜取得了进展。

But diplomacy between the two nations has been halting. Weeks after the summit, North Korea accused the United States of making “gangster-like” demands. 但两国之间的外交关系一直停滞不前。在峰会几周后,朝鲜就指责美国提出了“流氓般”的要求。

Pompeo is expected to try to shore up the relationship by continuing diplomatic work with North Korea this week at the ASEAN Regional Forum in Singapore. State Department officials said denuclearization will be discussed in a multinational setting, but would not say whether Pompeo and North Korean officials would meet directly for discussions. 预计庞皮欧本周将在新加坡举行的东盟地区论坛(ASEAN Regional Forum)上继续对朝鲜做外交工作,以此来巩固两国关系。国务院官员表示,无核化问题将在多国会谈中讨论,但不愿说庞皮欧和朝鲜官员是否会直接会面进行讨论。

Testifying before the Senate last week, Pompeo said North Korea continues to make “fissile material,” in essence the fuel for nuclear weapons. 庞皮欧上周在参议院作证时表示,朝鲜在继续制造“可裂变物质”,实质上就是核武器的燃料。

Still, Pompeo echoed Trump, touting North Korea’s lack of missile tests and highlighting its dismantling of a missile engine test facility as evidence of Kim’s commitment. While there is a long way to go with North Korea, Pompeo said, the work to shut down the engine test facility amounts to “steps forward.” 不过,庞皮欧也附和了特朗普的说法,拿朝鲜没有在进行导弹试验做文章,并强调它拆除了一处导弹发动机测试设施,以此作为金正恩信守承诺的证据。庞皮欧说,尽管朝鲜还有很长的路要走,但关闭发动机测试设施的工作是在“向前迈进”。

Democrats challenged Pompeo, saying Pyongyang had only rid itself of an obsolete facility. And outside experts have taken issue with Trump’s and Pompeo’s insistence that diplomacy is on track and the threat of conflict is substantially diminished. 民主党人对庞皮欧提出了质疑,称平壤方面不过是把一处废弃的设施拆除了。外界专家对特朗普和庞皮欧坚持与朝外交正在步入正轨,以及冲突威胁大大减弱的说法持有异议。

The Trump administration’s foreign policy has repeatedly been at odds with pronouncements by the president. 特朗普政府的外交政策一再与总统的声明不一致。

As for North Korea, scholars have also cast doubt on the government’s true intentions, and the new disclosures have sown further doubts about the Trump administration’s progress in stripping the country of its nuclear weapons. 至于朝鲜,学者们也对其政府的真实意图表示怀疑,而新披露的信息,令人对于特朗普政府在朝鲜无核化方面的进展产生了进一步质疑。

Lewis said his organization has examined 40 images of the Sanumdong facility since January. They show work continuing at the facility that was used to develop the ICBMs possessed by North Korea that have the capability to strike the United States. 刘易斯说,自今年1月以来,他的组织研究了沙门洞设施的40幅照片。结果显示,该设施仍在继续运行,这里是朝鲜开发能够打击美国的洲际弹道导弹的地方。

“They keep working,” Lewis said. “You can’t see in the building, but it is a missile facility, and shipping containers keep showing up.” “他们一直在工作,”刘易斯说。“你看不到大楼内部的情况,但这是一处导弹设施,不断有集装箱出现。”

At the Senate hearing, Pompeo told lawmakers that he was “very confident that the North Koreans understand our definition of denuclearization” and that Pyongyang had agreed to denuclearize. 在参议院的听证会上,庞皮欧对议员们表示,他“非常有信心朝鲜理解我们对无核化的定义”,而且平壤方面已经同意无核化。

While the Trump administration has defined the term “denuclearization” as the elimination of the nuclear arsenal, North Korea means something far different, Lewis said. When North Korean officials talk about denuclearization, they mean reducing the role nuclear weapons play, he said. 刘易斯说,虽然特朗普政府将“无核化”这个词定义为消除核武库,但朝鲜方面抱持的涵义却截然不同。他说,当朝鲜官员谈到无核化时,他们指的是减少核武器的作用。

“They want the Israel deal: They will talk about them less, and we pretend they don’t exist,” Lewis said. Israel is not a globally declared nuclear power, and the government does not discuss its abilities, but its weapons are hardly a secret. 刘易斯说:“他们想要以色列那样的协议:他们少谈起它们,我们则假装它们不存在。”以色列并不是一个向全球宣告的核国家,政府也不谈论它的核能力,但是它有核武器并不是什么秘密。
 


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