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特朗普再次逆转,美国重燃对华关税战火

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2018年06月02日

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WASHINGTON — President Trump, stung by criticism that he has gone soft on China and less worried about Beijing’s ability to disrupt a potential summit meeting with North Korea, reversed course on Tuesday and declared that the United States would impose tariffs and other punitive measures on China.

华盛顿——对中国态度软化的批评令特朗普总统受到刺激,加上他不再那么担心北京破坏美朝峰会的能力,所以周二他改变方向,宣布美国将对中国加征关税并实施其他惩罚措施。

Barely a week after Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that the trade war was “on hold” and that tariffs would be suspended as negotiations continued, the White House issued a statement saying the United States would move ahead with its plan to impose 25 percent tariffs on $50 billion worth of imported Chinese goods within the next month.

不到一周前,美国财政部长史蒂文·努钦(Steven Mnuchin)表示,贸易战“暂停”,并在谈判继续进行期间搁置关税提议。到了周二,白宫发表声明称,美国将在下个月内继续执行对500亿美元中国进口商品征收25%关税的计划。

Mr. Trump’s reversal was yet another twist in a long-running ideological battle in the West Wing between economic nationalists, who channel Mr. Trump’s protectionist instincts, and more mainstream advisers like Mr. Mnuchin, who worry that tariffs and investment restrictions will hurt the stock market and hobble long-term growth.

特朗普的这次逆转是白宫西翼旷日持久的思想斗争的最新转折,一方是引导特朗普保护主义本能的经济民族主义者,另一方是努钦等更主流的顾问,他们担心关税和投资限制会伤害股市,阻碍长期增长。

The nationalists seem to have won this round. While Mr. Trump is sending Wilbur Ross, the commerce secretary, to Beijing this weekend to try again to resolve the dispute, people briefed on the talks said Mr. Trump was frustrated with the first round of trade negotiations and wary of giving Democrats an opening on one of his core issues.

这一轮似乎是民族主义者赢了。虽然特朗普派商务部长威尔伯·罗斯(Wilbur Ross)本周末前往北京,再次尝试解决争端,但知情人士表示,特朗普对第一轮贸易谈判感到沮丧,担心在核心问题之一中给民主党提供了一个批评他的把柄。

The trade offensive comes at a sensitive moment, days after Mr. Trump pulled out of his planned June 12 meeting with the North’s leader, Kim Jong-un, after suggesting that China played a role in derailing the encounter. But the president has since expressed more optimism about the meeting, and negotiators from Washington and Pyongyang have scrambled to reinstate it, giving Mr. Trump a freer hand to resume his tough approach to America’s greatest economic adversary.

此次贸易攻势发生在一个敏感的时刻,此前几天,特朗普取消了6月12日与朝鲜领导人金正恩(Kim Jong-un)会面的计划。此前,他曾表示,中国在破坏这次会晤中起了作用。但后来,总统对会晤表达了更乐观的态度,华盛顿和平壤的谈判代表也在仓促地恢复计划,特朗普因此得以放手恢复对美国最大的经济对手的强硬态度。

In addition to the renewed trade threat, the United States has hardened its military posture toward China, canceling an invitation for the Chinese to take part in a large Pacific naval exercise and sailing two Navy warships past a handful of disputed islands in the South China Sea. The administration is pushing back against China’s installation of military facilities in the heavily trafficked waterway.

除了新的贸易威胁,美国还加强了对中国的军事制衡,取消了对中国参加大型太平洋海军演习的邀请,并派遣两艘海军军舰在南海几个争议岛屿附近航行。特朗普政府正在抵制中国在这一交通繁忙的水道上修建军事设施。

“On every issue, the balance of power in this administration leans toward a more hostile and adversarial relationship with China,” said Jeffrey A. Bader, a former top China adviser to President Barack Obama.

“在所有问题上,本届政府的权力平衡倾向于对中国采取更敌对的态度,”贝拉克·奥巴马总统的前中国高级顾问杰弗里·A·贝德(Jeffrey A. Bader)表示。

But Mr. Bader cautioned that Mr. Trump’s threat of tariffs could still be a purely tactical move and a cudgel to force concessions from China, similar to the approach he has used with several of America’s closest trading partners.

但贝德警告称,特朗普的关税威胁可能依然是一种纯粹的战术行动,旨在迫使中国做出让步,类似于他对美国几个最亲密的贸易伙伴所采取的做法。

“To me, it is not at all clear that Trump has turned his back on a deal,” he said.

“我觉得,现在完全不能确定特朗普是否已不打算达成协议,”他说。

Last week, the administration announced a sweeping new investigation that could result in tariffs on imported automobiles — a move trade experts said was designed to ramp up pressure on Mexico and Canada in negotiations over the North American Free Trade Agreement.

上周,特朗普政府宣布要进行一项全面的新调查,可能导致对进口汽车征收关税。贸易专家们表示,此举意图在《北美自由贸易协定》(North American Free Trade Agreement)谈判中增加对墨西哥和加拿大的压力。

On Friday, temporary exemptions to steel and aluminum tariffs that the White House granted to the European Union, Canada and Mexico are set to expire, raising the question of whether the countries will fold to Mr. Trump’s trade requests or retaliate.

截至本周五,美国给予欧盟、加拿大和墨西哥的钢铝关税临时豁免将到期,这将引发一个问题,那就是,这些国家是会屈服于特朗普的贸易要求,还是进行报复。

Hours after the tariffs on China were announced, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce accused the White House of going back on its word, even as it hinted that Beijing expected such a reversal.

向中国征收关税的声明宣布数小时后,中国商务部指责白宫背弃承诺,尽管它暗示北京预料到会出现这样的逆转。

“We feel surprised by the tactical statement issued by the White House, and yet it was also unsurprising,” a statement from the ministry said, adding that China would “defend the interests of the Chinese people and core national interests.”

“我们对白宫发布的策略性声明感到出乎意料,但也在意料之中,”中国商务部的一份声明表示。声明还表示,中国将“捍卫中国人民利益和国家核心利益”。

“This is clearly contrary to the consensus that China and the U.S. reached not long ago in Washington,” the statement said.

“这显然有悖于不久前中美双方在华盛顿达成的共识,”该声明表示。

The last round of trade talks ended on May 19 with the two sides issuing an upbeat but vague joint statement that revealed little progress toward resolving a long list of complaints from the American negotiators. Mr. Trump, who made getting tough on China a centerpiece of his campaign, has often talked about challenging what he believes are its unfair trade practices.

在5月19日结束的最后一轮贸易谈判中,中美双方发表了一份乐观但措辞模糊的联合声明,表明在解决美国谈判代表提出的一系列抱怨方面进展甚微。特朗普在竞选总统期间把对中国采取强硬态度作为核心策略,经常谈到要挑战他认为的不公平贸易做法。

But his advisers are deeply divided over how best to do it. Some, like Mr. Mnuchin and Mr. Ross, are focused on a compromise deal that would require China to buy huge amounts of American products to reduce its trade surplus, while still forestalling the possibility of a trade war.

但他的顾问们对如何最好地实现这一点意见不一。努钦和罗斯等人专注于达成一项折衷协议,要求中国购买大量美国产品,以减少贸易顺差,同时防止出现贸易战。

Others like Peter Navarro, a top White House trade adviser, and Robert Lighthizer, the United States trade representative, have pushed for tougher action. They want China to undertake radical reforms, ending the subsidies it provides to developing industries and allowing American companies equal access in the Chinese market.

其他人——比如白宫高级贸易顾问彼得·纳瓦罗(Peter Navarro)和美国贸易代表罗伯特·莱特希泽(Robert Lighthizer),则推行更为强硬的措施。他们希望中国进行彻底的改革,停止对发展中产业提供补贴,并允许美国公司平等进入中国市场。

Hours after Mr. Mnuchin said a trade war was on hold, Mr. Lighthizer, who has been leading the investigation into China’s trade practices, issued a statement that was viewed as a repudiation of his colleague. He said that “real work” still needed to be done to make changes in the Chinese system, and that the United States would use “all of its legal tools to protect our technology through tariffs, investment restrictions and export regulations.”

在努钦表示贸易战暂停的几小时后,一直领导着中国贸易行为调查的莱特希泽发表了被认为在否定同僚的言论。他表示,要改变中国制度,还要做些“实际工作”,并且美国将会用上“自己的所有法律手段,通过关税、投资限制和出口管制来保护我们的技术”。

Mr. Trump’s handling of a Chinese telecom company, ZTE, became another flash point. On Friday, he said he had reached a deal that would allow the firm, which was recently banned from buying American components as punishment for violating United States sanctions, to remain in business. That prompted a slew of criticism from lawmakers that he was backing off his tougher promises on trade and letting a Chinese telecom company that did business with Iran and North Korea off the hook.

特朗普对中国电信公司中兴的处理成了又一个导火索。周五,他表示已达成一项协议,将允许这个近期因违反美国制裁而被罚禁止购买美国零部件的公司继续其业务。这招致了立法者的大量批评,认为这是在放弃贸易上的更强硬措施,放过了这个与伊朗和朝鲜做生意的中国电信公司。

“Yes they have a deal in mind. It is a great deal... for #ZTE & China,” Senator Marco Rubio, Republican of Florida, said in a tweet.

“他们是在考虑一个协议。是个不错的协议……对#中兴 和中国而言,”佛罗里达州共和党参议员马尔科·鲁比奥(Marco Rubio)发推说。

Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the Democratic leader, tweeted, “If the administration goes through with this reported deal, President Trump would be helping make China great again.”

纽约州参议员、民主党领袖查克·舒默(Chuck Schumer)发推说,“如果政府通过了这份传闻的协议,特朗普就是在帮助中国恢复伟大荣光了。”

Those swipes rankled Mr. Trump, according to current and former White House officials. In a midterm election year, they said, the president does not want to leave an opening to Democrats on trade. Mr. Trump expressed his unhappiness to Mr. Mnuchin, who had urged him to settle the ZTE issue and seek a trade truce with Beijing.

据白宫现任及前任官员称,特朗普对这些抨击耿耿于怀。他们表示,在中期选举年中,总统不希望在贸易上给民主党人留下机会。特朗普对敦促他解决中兴问题、寻求与北京停止贸易战的努钦表达了不满。

“There may be some momentary confusion, but his default position is, you’ll never get to the right of him on China,” said Stephen K. Bannon, who served as Mr. Trump’s chief strategist and is a leader of the nationalist movement.

“可能会有一时的混乱,但他的默认立场是,你们永远都不会在中国问题上看清他的道理,”曾任特朗普首席战略师、民族主义运动领袖斯蒂芬·K·班农(Stephen K. Bannon)说。

In April, the administration detailed a list of Chinese goods that would be subject to tariffs, including flat-screen TVs and medical devices. It then held a series of hearings on the tariffs, giving the public a chance to influence the targeted products.

四月,政府详细列出了受限于关税的中国商品,其中包括平板电视和医疗设备。随后又举行了一系列的关税听证会,让公众参与目标产品的甄选。

On Tuesday, White House officials said that they would issue the final list of goods subject to the tariffs by June 15, and impose the duties shortly after that. Mr. Trump has also threatened additional tariffs on $100 billion of Chinese products that, for now, will not go into effect.

周二,白宫官员表示,他们会在6月15日前公布将受限于关税的最终货物清单,并会在不久后施行这些关税。特朗普还威胁要对1000亿美元的中国商品加征额外关税,不过这目前还不会生效。

China’s explosive rise was a shock to the global trading system. For decades, Western economies like the United States have struggled with the growth of this economic powerhouse.Published OnMay 15, 2018CreditImage by Doug Mills/The New York Times

中国的爆炸性增长对全球贸易体系来说是一个冲击。几十年来,像美国这样的西方经济体一直纠结于这个经济强国的壮大。

The White House also said it would move forward with restrictions on Chinese investment and with stronger export controls to limit the access that Chinese people and companies have to American technology — a measure the administration said was for national security purposes.

白宫还表示,它将推进对中国的限制并加强出口管控,以限制中国人和中国公司接触美国科技——政府称,这种措施是出于国家安全考虑。

Those restrictions will be announced by June 30 and adopted soon after that, the administration said, adding that the United States would also continue to pursue a trade case it filed against China at the World Trade Organization involving intellectual property rights.

美国政府表示,这些限制规定将于6月30日前公布并会尽快实施。还称美国会继续追究它在世贸组织对中国提起的知识产权贸易诉讼。

Mr. Schumer offered the president highly conditional praise. “This outline represents the kind of actions we have needed to take for a long time, but the president must stick with it and not bargain it away,” he said in a statement.

舒默向总统提出了一个有条件的赞扬。“这个大纲代表着我们在很长一段时期内需要采取的行动,但总统必须坚持下去,而不是在讨价还价中轻易放弃,”他在一份声明中表示。

Representative Richard E. Neal, Democrat of Massachusetts, said the administration was merely trying to save face “by rattling its saber with new deadlines,” after having undermined American national security interests by easing penalties on ZTE.

马萨诸塞州民主党议员理查德·E·尼尔(Richard E. Neal)表示,政府无非是在撤销了对中兴的惩罚、破坏了美国国家安全利益之后,“通过新的最后期限吓唬人,”以挽回颜面。

“Without a coherent strategy,” he said, “it’s hard to see the renewed commitment to threatening tariffs and investment restrictions as anything but more bluster and chaos.”

“没有一致的策略,”他说,“很难让人不把这种对关税威胁、投资限制重燃的热情看成是更多的恐吓和混乱。”

Mr. Trump’s willingness to cut a deal on ZTE also raised questions about his motives, given that days before he said he would help the company, China granted his daughter, Ivanka Trump, seven new trademarks across a broad collection of businesses, including books, housewares and cushions.

特朗普愿意在中兴问题上达成协议,也让人质疑他的动机。鉴于在他表示将会帮助这家公司的前几天,中国批准了他的女儿伊万卡·特朗普的七个新商标,涉及书籍、家居用品、靠垫等一系列行业。

Mr. Trump’s latest trade moves have provoked retaliation from China, which has promised its own potential tariffs on $50 billion in American goods. Chinese officials say they do not dismiss anything as an idle threat.

特朗普最新的贸易举措已经引来了中国的报复,中国已经承诺,可能会对500亿美元的美国商品加征关税。中国官员表示,他们不会把这些当作空洞的威胁来看待。

“We have to consider this seriously — we have to listen to his words and watch his actions,” Li Gang, the vice president of the Commerce Ministry’s research and training institute, said in a recent interview in Beijing.

“我们必须认真考虑这一点——我们必须听其言、观其行,”商务部研究院副院长李刚近期在北京接受采访时说。
 


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