为何金正恩要“挽救”美朝峰会？

SEOUL, South Korea — Ever since Kim Jong-un took over as the young, untested ruler of North Korea seven years ago, he has promised his country a future free from deprivation.

韩国首尔——早在七年前接任朝鲜领导人之时，少不经事的金正恩(Kim Jong-un)便向自己的国家承诺了一个不再受穷的未来。

In his first speech as leader, he vowed that North Koreans, millions of whom starved during a famine in the 1990s, would never again have to tighten their belts. Last year, he apologized to the nation for failing to live up to that pledge, expressing how “anxious and remorseful” it made him.

在成为领导人后发表的第一次讲话中，他发誓说，朝鲜人将永远不用再勒紧裤带——1990年代饥荒期间有数百万朝鲜人饿死。去年，他因未能兑现这一诺言而向国人道歉，并表示自己非常“焦虑和懊悔”。

Then, this year, he proclaimed a new shift to North Korea’s 25 million people: Now that the nation possessed a nuclear arsenal, it could change gears and start building a prosperous economy, after years of international sanctions.

然后到了今年，他向2500万朝鲜人宣布了一项新的转变：现在朝鲜已经有了核武库，那么，经过多年国际制裁，它可能会调整自己，开始建设繁荣的经济。

So when President Trump on Thursday abruptly canceled their much anticipated summit meeting on June 12, the North Korean response was remarkably diplomatic and cordial, holding open the hope that the meeting could still take place, after all.

因此，周四特朗普总统突然取消备受期待的6月12日峰会时，朝鲜的反应非常得体而友好，并表示希望这次会议依然能够举行。

In a sign of just how important the summit is to Mr. Kim, he held an unexpected meeting on Saturday with President Moon Jae-in of South Korea, where he expressed a “fixed will” to try to salvage it.

为表明这次首脑会议对金正恩来说有多么重要，他在周六与韩国总统文在寅(Moon Jae-in)举行了一次出人意料的会议，会上他表达了“坚定的愿望”，希望挽救与特朗普的首脑会议。

The measured response to the cancellation, and the extraordinary diplomatic scramble that followed, was a strong reminder, analysts said, that Mr. Kim not only wants a diplomatic deal with the United States. He may need one.

分析人士表示，朝鲜对取消会议做出的慎重反应，以及随后非同寻常的外交紧急行动，是一种强烈的提醒——金正恩不只是希望与美国达成外交协议。他是需要这样一个协议。

“North Korea can still survive under sanctions, especially if China helps it,” said Shin Beom-chul, a senior fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul. “But as long as sanctions are there, Kim Jong-un can never deliver the kind of rapid economic growth he has promised for his people.”

“朝鲜在制裁下依然可以生存下去，特别是如果有中国的帮助，” 首尔的峨山政策研究院(Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul)高级研究员申范澈(Shin Beom-chul)表示。“但是只要有制裁，金正恩就永远无法实现他向人民承诺的那种快速经济增长。”

Mr. Kim’s stated desire to continue engaging with Mr. Trump — even after such a high-profile snub — does not necessarily mean the North Korean leader is willing to renounce his nuclear arsenal, the primary American demand.

即使是遭受了这样公然的怠慢，金正恩依然表示希望继续与特朗普接触，但这并不一定意味着这位朝鲜领导人愿意接受美国的主要条件，即放弃自己的核武库。

No matter how painful sanctions may be, analysts say, Mr. Kim would be unwilling to give up his nuclear weapons unless an accord left him feeling completely safe without them. The security of his family-run regime is a nonnegotiable priority.

分析人士认为，无论制裁有多么艰苦，金正恩都是不愿放弃核武器的，除非达成一项协议，让他可以在没有核武器的情况下也感到充分的安全。确保金氏家族的执政则是不可谈判的优先事项。

North Korea has emphasized that it wants security guarantees and will not trade its nuclear arsenal for economic benefits alone. It has also rejected assertions that it has been pressured into talks because of the pain of sanctions, adding that it does not expect help from the United States in pursuing economic development.

朝鲜强调它希望获得安全保证，并不会仅仅为了经济利益而交换其核武库。它还否认自己是由于制裁的痛苦而被迫进行会谈，并说它不希望从美国那里获得经济发展方面的帮助。

Indeed, the North Korean economy has been growing as much as 1 to 5 percent annually under Mr. Kim’s rule, because of a limited embrace of market forces by his government and, until late last year, loopholes in the multiple rounds of sanctions adopted by the United Nations Security Council.

事实上，在金正恩的统治下，由于政府引入了有限的市场机制，加之去年年底之前，联合国安理会在多轮制裁中所采取方案的漏洞，朝鲜经济的年增长率达到1%至5%。

Still, his apparent willingness to continue diplomatic efforts does suggest that Mr. Kim, 34, may be under pressure to satisfy rising expectations in North Korea for economic gains and shake off the painful grip of sanctions.

尽管如此，金正恩仍希望继续进行外交努力，这样的意愿确实表明，随着朝鲜国内越来越渴望经济增长和摆脱痛苦制裁，这位34岁的领导人可能正面临压力。

While largely depicted as a nuclear provocateur in the outside world, Mr. Kim is determined to be the face of a modern and more open North Korea at home. He has erected new buildings and repainted old ones in Pyongyang, the capital, attended a concert by a South Korean girl band and let a state orchestra play American pop music.

尽管金正恩在外部世界大多被描绘为一个持核挑衅的人物，但在国内，他决心成为朝鲜现代化和扩大开放的代言人。他在首都平壤建起了新的大楼，重新粉刷了旧的建筑，出席了一场韩国女团的音乐会，还让国家乐团演奏了美国流行音乐。

Mr. Kim has also sent party officials to China to learn its economic policies, and has even admitted to other failures during his supposedly faultless leadership, like a botched satellite launch in 2012. When he met with South Korea’s president, Moon Jae-in, last month and invited him to Pyongyang, he asked Mr. Moon to fly there because North Korea’s roads and trains were in such “embarrassing” condition.

金正恩还派出了党内官员前往中国学习中国的经济政策，甚至还承认，在他本应完美无瑕的领导履历中还有一些疏漏，比如2012年的卫星发射失败。当他上个月与韩国总统文在寅举行会晤并邀请他来平壤时，他请文在寅乘飞机前往，因为朝鲜的公路和铁路状况实在有些“尴尬”。

The contrasts between the North and South are particularly stark. North Korea generates a tiny fraction — less than 5 percent, by some estimates — of the electricity that South Korea does, leaving passengers stranded for hours in immobilized trains because of widespread power shortages, according to defectors from the country.

朝鲜和韩国之间的对比格外显著。朝鲜的发电量只是韩国的一点零头——据一些人估计不足其5%。据脱北者称，由于普遍的电力短缺，乘客会被滞留在瘫痪的列车上数个小时。

The dueling economic realities of the two countries are on clear display from space: Even now, nighttime satellite photos show the southern half of the Korean Peninsula splotched with bright lights, while Mr. Kim’s North is shrouded in darkness, with only a pinprick of light indicating the location of Pyongyang, where the nation’s elite lives.

两国经济现实对比从太空可以一览无余：夜间卫星照片显示，即使是现在，朝鲜半岛南部那一半都是明亮的灯光，而金正恩的北部却笼罩在黑暗之中，只有一点灯光标示出了朝鲜权贵阶层居住的平壤。

Without a doubt, North Korea has come a long way since the 1990s, when mass starvation stalked the population and the country was so energy-starved that travelers camped out in stations for days waiting for trains.

但毫无疑问，自20世纪90年代以来，朝鲜已经取得了长足的进步。当时，大规模的饥荒正在人群中蔓延，而且这个国家的能源又是如此匮乏，以至于旅行者们要在火车站内露宿多日，等待火车的到来。

Since taking over after the death of his father, Kim Jong-il, Mr. Kim has installed water parks, ski resorts, a new airport, skyscrapers and even a dolphinarium. Cellphones have become a common consumer item in North Korean cities, although the country remains mostly shuttered from the global internet.

父亲金正日去世后掌权的金正恩建起了水上公园、滑雪场、新机场、摩天大楼，甚至还有一个海豚馆。手机也成为了朝鲜城市的常见消费品，尽管朝鲜基本上仍隔绝于全球互联网之外。

But for all his efforts to portray himself as vigorous, approachable and goal-oriented, there is a limit to how far Mr. Kim can go under international sanctions, analysts say.

但分析人士表示，尽管他努力塑造出自己强有力而平易近人、具有全球视野的形象，但在国际制裁下，金正恩能走多远仍然有限。

The domestic pressures on him are compounded in some ways by the growth of markets he has introduced and the emergence of a moneyed class in Pyongyang. Under Mr. Kim, a new generation is growing up exposed to DVDs and flash drives of South Korean soap operas and movies, raising expectations for a better quality of life.

从某种程度上说，他自己引入的市场的增长以及平壤富裕阶层的出现，加剧了金正恩在面临的压力。在金正恩的领导下，在装着韩国肥皂剧和电影的DVD、U盘中长大的新一代人，对更好的生活质量有着更高的期待。

Mr. Kim has the power to rule his country and suppress dissent through extreme brutality. There is no political opposition.

金正恩拥有通过极度的残酷来统治国家、镇压异见的力量。朝鲜没有政治反对派。

He is believed to have ordered dozens of executions, including the killing of his own uncle, and North Korea still runs a network of prison gulags. Mr. Kim keeps the elite on its toes by frequently purging and reshuffling senior military and party officials.

据信他已下令处决了数十人，其中包括杀死自己姑父。朝鲜也还维持着一个监狱劳改营网络。通过经常清洗并改组军政高层，金正恩让权贵们终日提心吊胆。

But he is also eager to be seen as “people loving.’’ Building a “strong socialist country” is his catchphrase.

但他也渴望被视作“热爱人民”的领袖。他的口号是建设“强大的社会主义国家”。

Recent visitors say Pyongyang looks more colorful and prosperous than it did a decade ago, with stores stocked with imported and domestically produced foods. But conditions outside the capital remain dismal, with widespread malnutrition among children and nursing mothers, according to United Nations relief agencies.

近期到访平壤的人说，这座城市比十年前看起来更加多彩、繁荣。商店里供应着进口和国产的食物。但是据联合国救济机构称，首都之外的情况依然令人沮丧，儿童和哺乳期的母亲普遍营养不良。

The most recent round of sanctions in the American-led “maximum pressure” campaign has undercut North Korea’s ability to earn hard currency needed to buy imports. Since September, the United Nations Security Council has banned all major North Korean exports, including coal, iron ore, seafood and textiles. If enforced fully, the sanctions could eliminate 90 percent of the country’s total exports.

在美国领导的“最大压力”运动中，最新一轮的制裁让朝鲜很难获得购买进口产品所需的硬通货。从9月起，联合国安理会已经全面禁止了朝鲜的主要出口，包括煤炭、铁矿石、海产品和纺织品。如果制裁得到充分执行，可减少朝鲜总出口的90%。

Mr. Trump’s surprise decision to withdraw from the summit meeting could also play into Mr. Kim’s favor, especially if China — North Korea’s main trading partner — blames Washington and chooses not to enforce sanctions as vigorously.

特朗普退出首脑会晤的惊人决定，可能也会对金正恩有利，尤其是如果朝鲜的主要贸易伙伴——中国——怪罪于华盛顿，并决定在制裁的执行上打一些折扣。

In the weeks leading up the meeting, Mr. Kim had taken very public steps to lay the groundwork for negotiations, including releasing three American prisoners and suspending weapons tests. On Thursday, he demolished his country’s only nuclear test site.

在会议的前几周，金正恩采取了非常公开的行动，为谈判奠定了基础，其中包括释放三名美国囚犯，暂停武器实验。周四，他拆除了朝鲜唯一的核试验场。

Then, just hours later, Mr. Trump abruptly pulled out of the summit. Instead of reacting with rancor, the North Koreans put out a calm response, saying they would do “everything we can for the peace and stability of the Korean Peninsula.”

接着，就在几小时后，特朗普突然退出了首脑会晤。但朝鲜非但没有以敌意回应，反而摆出了一个冷静姿态，表示他们会“为朝鲜半岛的和平与稳定尽己所能”。

Mr. Trump softened his tone on Friday, saying a meeting might take place after all, but the diplomatic seesawing by the American president suddenly made Mr. Kim look like a reliable and consistent negotiating partner.

周五，特朗普缓和了口吻，表示会晤可能终究还是会举行。但是这位在外交上举棋不定的美国总统，突然让金正恩看起来像是个可靠而如一的谈判伙伴了。