中国下一任央行行长可向周小川学什么？
中国时隔15年又要有一位新的央行行长了。上周五，周小川主持了据信是他身为中国人民银行(PBoC)行长的最后一个记者会。预计将在3月19日公布的继任者必然肩负多重使命，包括控制信贷增长、吸引外国投资者进入中国金融市场、遏制影子银行风险蔓延以及创建更可持续的汇率制度。
The next governor would do well to take lessons from Mr Zhou, who played a weak hand in China’s bureaucracy very skilfully, affecting policy beyond the bounds of his official station. Unlike most central banks, the PBoC is not independent. The State Council signs off on routine adjustments to interest rates, banks’ reserve requirements and exchange rate management. Its members generally want to keep credit abundant and interest rates low, and have no interest in empowering the PBoC.
下一任央行行长不妨从周小川身上学习一些经验，后者手上没有太好的牌，却非常巧妙地把握中国官僚体系，对政策的影响超出他的官位。与多数央行不同，中国央行并不独立。利率、银行存款准备金率和汇率管理制度的例常调整都需经过国务院同意。国务院官员一般都希望经济中信贷充裕并且利率处在低水平，他们无意放权给央行。
Yet Mr Zhou managed to shape an aggressive financial reform agenda, including liberalisation of interest rates and the exchange rate. He used international expertise and engagement to frame choices for China’s leaders narrowly, portraying reforms as in line with those of other modern, developed financial systems. By introducing limited reforms that appeared innocuous, he ended up creating outsized effects that broke down state constraints on China’s financial system.
然而周小川设法促成了一份锐意进取的金融改革议程，其中包括利率自由化和汇率形成机制改革。他运用国际专长，促进国际交流，为中国领导层框定狭窄的选择面，把改革措施呈现为与其他现代发达金融体系接轨。通过推行看似平常无奇的有限改革，他最终造成了极大的影响，减弱了政府对中国金融体系的制约。
Consider two examples: the internationalisation of the renminbi and the light regulatory approach to China’s fintech companies. Letting the currency accumulate offshore set up expectations that onshore financial markets would also be liberalised and prompted gradual moves towards capital account convertibility. Allowing internet-based banking spurred the rapid growth of new players, forcing state banks to compete for customers and leading to the end of hard caps on bank deposit rates.
举两个例子：人民币国际化以及对中国金融科技公司的“轻监管”。任由离岸人民币越积越多，使人们产生了这样的预期：中国国内金融市场也将实行自由化。这也促使当局出台了循序渐进的朝着资本项目可兑换方向迈进的举措。允许开展互联网银行业务，推动了新型金融机构的迅速成长，迫使国有银行不得不去争夺客户，并导致银行存款利率上限被废除。
The leading candidates for the next governor include Guo Shuqing, head of the banking regulator, Jiang Chaoliang, party secretary of Hubei province, and Yi Gang, the current deputy governor. Mr Guo is the presumptive choice, but Mr Yi might run the bank’s day-to-day operations if a higher-level official such as Liu He takes the reins.
可能出任下一任央行行长的主要人选包括银监会主席郭树清、湖北省委书记蒋超良和现任中国央行副行长的易纲。人们认为郭树清最有可能出任，但如果由一位级别更高的官员——比如刘鹤——出任行长，那么易纲可能负责管理央行日常业务。
Last year’s imposition of capital controls puts the onus on the next governor to restore the credibility of China’s commitment to rules-based governance of the financial system. Capital outflows from China are inevitable as a $27.3tn money supply expands by about 10 per cent a year, creating powerful incentives for Chinese households and corporates to diversify into foreign assets. Capital controls will be of questionable long-term efficacy, and policy uncertainty continues to loom over exchange-rate management. Foreign investment into China’s financial markets would help offset the outbound capital, but attracting these inflows will require more reform.
去年实施的资本管制措施，意味着下一任行长有必要恢复中国要按照规则治理金融体系这一承诺的可信度。资本流出中国是不可避免的，因为货币供应规模高达27.3万亿美元，且在以每年约10%的速度扩张，这为中国家庭和企业创造了投资海外资产的强大动机。资本管制的长期效力成疑，政策不确定性继续困扰着汇率管理。流入中国金融市场的外国投资将帮助抵消资本外流，但吸引这些投资将需要更多改革。
Markets typically test new central bank governors, so early policy signals towards the interbank and foreign exchange markets will be important. Investors will be watching for changes to the PBoC’s historical aversion to credit defaults. The new governor must continue Beijing’s deleveraging campaign while preventing contagion from developing credit risks in China’s $39.7tn banking system. In June 2013, the PBoC backed down after an attempt to tame shadow banking resulted in an acute funding crunch. That arguably created conditions for the further explosion of shadow banking activity.
央行新行长上任时一般都会受到市场的考验，因此，向银行间及外汇市场释放的早期政策信号将很重要。投资者将密切关注中国央行历来厌恶信贷违约的态度是否会出现变化。新行长必须继续推行中央的去杠杆化努力，同时防止在中国39.7万亿美元规模的银行业体系中信贷风险蔓延扩散。2013年6月，在遏制影子银行的举措导致严重资金荒之后，中国央行放弃了相关努力。可以说，那给影子银行业活动后来进一步激增创造了条件。
Under Mr Zhou, the PBoC has consistently been home to reform-minded officials, highlighting the continuing importance of individuals even in China’s centralised system. The next governor’s ability to preserve that legacy will help shape the future of China’s economy and its impact on the world.
周小川领导下的中国央行一直有很多具有改革意识的官员，说明即便是在中国的集中化体制内，个体也始终在发挥着重要作用。下一任行长保持这一传统的能力，将帮助塑造中国经济的未来及其对世界的影响。
The writer is director of China markets research at Rhodium Group
本文作者系荣鼎集团(Rhodium Group)中国市场研究总监
