朝方沉默突显美朝峰会对金正恩的风险
美朝领导人可能举行峰会的前景在初时引发的激动正逐渐让位于担忧情绪，原因是朝鲜政府对这场会晤仍保持沉默。
The silence out of Pyongyang has triggered concerns that the dictatorship may be insincere about its overtures or could again be playing psychological games with its adversaries in a bid to create leverage.
平壤的沉默引发了人们的担忧，即这一专制国家的示好可能缺乏诚意，或可能是为了给自己创造筹码而再次跟它的对手玩心理游戏。
US president Donald Trump last week surprised the world by agreeing to a summit with Kim Jong Un, to be held “by May”, after the North Korean leader extended an invitation through two South Korean envoys.
在接到朝鲜领导人通过两位韩国特使发出的邀请之后，美国总统唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)于上周同意与金正恩(Kim Jong Un)于“5月”前举行首脑会议，令全球为之震惊。
The news was greeted with cautious optimism, with many relieved that Mr Trump was opting for diplomacy after months of threatening war with Pyongyang over its advanced weapons programmes.
人们对这一消息持审慎乐观态度，许多人因特朗普选择外交手段松了口气，此前他接连数月因平壤的先进武器计划威胁要对其发动战争。
But North Korean state-run media have since remained silent on the prospect of a summit, as well as a possible meeting with South Korean president Moon Jae-in. 但朝鲜官媒此后对这场峰会的前景，以及与韩国总统文在寅(Moon Jae-in)的可能会晤一直保持沉默。
Jeon Young-sun, a professor at South Korea’s Konkuk University, said Pyongyang was probably being careful not to be seen to offer too much to Washington, including de-nuclearisation.
韩国建国大学(Konkuk university)教授Jeon Young-sun表示，平壤可能在小心地不表现得向华盛顿提供太多东西，包括无核化。
“For us, nuclear bombs are a strategic military weapon. For North Koreans, the nuclear concept is almost equivalent to religion. It is a psychological safeguard for them,” he said.
他说：“对我们来说，核弹是一种战略军事武器。对于北韩人来说，核武器思想几乎等同于宗教，是他们的心理保障。”
“So it is risky for the regime to announce a meeting with the US and to say that it is now on the path to de-nuclearisation. The betrayal would be huge for North Korean people as they have long cherished the nuclear programme.”
“因此对于该政权来说，宣布与美国举行峰会，并表示正处于无核化进程是有风险的。这对北韩人民是极大的背叛，因为他们长期以来一直珍视自己的核计划。”
If managed correctly, however, a summit could be a big win for Mr Kim.
但如果应对得当，这场峰会对金正恩来说可能是一场重大胜利。
No North Korean leader has ever met a serving US president and a meeting would afford the regime an air of global legitimacy as well as domestic prestige.
没有一位朝鲜领导人曾与在职美国总统举行会晤，而这样的会面不但能为该政权带来全球合法性，还能提高国内声望。
Many analysts therefore believe the meeting with Mr Trump is likely to take place. But the tight timeframe means North Korea is now likely to be frantically preparing, although the US has since cast doubt on the May target and says no date has been agreed.
因此许多分析人士认为与特朗普的会面很可能会成行。但紧迫的时间表意味着朝鲜现在可能在疯狂准备，虽然美国随后对5月这个目标持疑，并表示尚未约定日期。
Kim Ki-ho, a professor of international politics at Kyonggi University, said North Korea “seems to be working on preparatory works, such as the kind of rhetoric they will use when they announce ‘the great leader Kim Jong Un will sit down with Donald Trump as nuclear states on an equal footing’.”
京畿大学(Kyonggi university)国际政治教授Kim Ki-ho表示，朝鲜“似乎正在进行一些准备工作，比如当宣布‘作为地位平等的核国家，伟大领袖金正恩将与唐纳德•特朗普坐下商谈’时要用到的修辞。”
He added that Mr Kim would push ahead with the meeting because he was desperate for some relief from the sanctions that the US has piled on Pyongyang.
他还表示金正恩会推动这次会议，因为他迫切地想要缓解美国对平壤的重重制裁。
Lee Sang-hyun, a senior research fellow at the Sejong Institute, echoed the sentiment, saying he expected that North Korea was co-ordinating prospective meetings and activities.
世宗研究所(Sejong Institute)高级研究员李相贤(Lee Sang-hyun)对此表示赞同，称他预计朝鲜将协调未来的会议和活动。
“Their low profile is a temporary thing,” he said. “Once any progress is made or a meeting is confirmed, they will announce the meetings in their outlets.”
“他们的低调是暂时的，”他说，“一旦取得任何进展或者会晤确定下来，他们将在本国的宣传机构公布。”
The official silence on the summit, however, does not mean that North Korean media have ceased their usual vitriol against the US and its allies.
然而，朝鲜官方对此次峰会的沉默，并不意味着朝鲜媒体停止了对美国及其盟友的一贯尖刻抨击。
At the weekend, the state-run Rodong Sinmun newspaper criticised the US for its “inveterate repugnancy” and accused it of making “dangerous acts that may bring a war”.
上周末，朝鲜官方报纸《劳动新闻》(Rodong Sinmun)批评美国“根深蒂固的两面派做法”，指责美国制造“可能引发战争的危险行为”。
The comments underscore Pyongyang’s unhappiness with the sanctions, which have been spearheaded by Washington.
这些评论突显出平壤方面对华盛顿带头实施的种种制裁的不满。
Observers who are sceptical of North Korea’s motives said the summit was a ploy to try to ease sanctions and that the regime would never give up its nuclear weapons.
对朝鲜动机持怀疑态度的观察人士表示，此次峰会是朝鲜试图减轻制裁的计谋，平壤政权绝不会放弃核武器。
“The possession of nuclear weapons has long been considered the greatest achievement of Kim Jong Un,” said Cho Han-beom, a senior researcher at the Korea Institute for National Unification. “If they announce they are pursuing de-nuclearisation, he is at risk of losing his authority and the regime’s legitimacy as well. A sudden change in North Korea’s attitude towards the US and South Korea will result in a loss of face for Kim.”
“拥有核武器一直被视为金正恩最伟大的成就，”韩国统一研究院(Korea Institute for National Unification)高级研究员Cho Han-beom表示，“如果他们宣布正在寻求无核化，他将有丧失权威和政权合法性的风险。北韩突然对美韩转变态度会导致金正恩丢面子。”
But there is consensus on one point: the Kim regime will speak out at a time and manner of its choosing.
但专家们看法一致的一点是：金氏政权将在其认为合适的时间用自己的方式做出宣布。
“North Korea tends to implement fully planned scenarios instead of moving in a step-by-step way. Timing wise, now is too early to announce the meetings to the North Korean people,” said Prof Jeon.
Jeon Young-sun教授说：“北韩倾向于实施完全计划好的方案，而不是一步一步走着看。时机很重要，现在向北韩人民宣布这些会晤还为时过早。”
“At a certain point, when they have thoroughly planned the scenario and decided what kind of rhetoric they will deliver, then they will make an announcement.”
“某个时刻，当他们彻底计划好了方案，并决定好要发布的措辞后，他们会作出声明。”
Additional reporting by Kang Buseong Kang Buseong补充报道
