市场担心中国以所持美债为武器报复钢铝关税

Donald Trump’s decision this month to impose tariffs on steel and aluminium imports generated plenty of speculation about potential retaliation from trading partners.

唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)本月宣布对进口钢铁和铝征收关税，这一决定引发了关于贸易伙伴潜在报复的大量猜测。

For the bond market, investors are keeping a close eye on China’s holdings of US government debt. Beijing is the largest foreign owner of US Treasuries, with holdings of $1.18tn, according to official data.

就债券市场而言，投资者正密切关注中国持有的美国国债。据官方数据显示，中国是美国国债最大的外国所有者，持债规模达到1.18万亿美元。

China’s holdings have grown rapidly, rising from under $500bn at the end of 2007 to $1.16tn at the end of 2010, and have stayed close to those levels since.

中国的持债数量增长迅速，从2007年底的5000亿美元一路增加到2010年底的1.16万亿美元，此后一直维持在该水平附近。

“China owns huge amounts of Treasuries,” said RJ Gallo, a senior fund manager at Federated Investors. “The US is not the only seat at the table with some cards in their hands.”

Federated Investors高级基金经理RJ•加洛(RJ Gallo)表示：“中国持有大量美国国债。美国不是唯一手上有牌的玩家。”

The US government bond market has been a place for Beijing to park the dollars it gathers from selling goods to the US, whose trade deficit in goods with China reached $375bn last year.

美国国债市场一直是北京存放在对美商品出口中得到的美元的地方，去年美国对华贸易逆差达到3750亿美元。

China’s holding are predominantly in Treasuries maturing in more than one year, with only $4.2bn invested in shorter-dated “bills”.

中国持有的美国国债主要是一年期以上的，在更短期的债券上只投入了42亿美元。

However, any move by Beijing to use its holdings of Treasuries as a weapon in a trade war would come at a heavy cost, fixed-income analysts and economists say.

不过，固定收益分析师和经济学家们表示，北京方面将所持美国国债当作贸易战武器的任何举动，都将付出沉重的代价。

“Retaliation is never a clear choice,” said Seth Carpenter, chief US economist at UBS. “There would be a cost on both sides.”

瑞银(UBS)首席美国经济学家塞思•卡彭特(Seth Carpenter)说：“报复从来不是一个容易的选择。双方都会付出代价。”