美联储高官：加息太快可能拖累经济复苏

The Federal Reserve risks dragging down the US’s recovery by increasing interest rates while cutting back its own multi-trillion dollar balance sheet, a top Fed official has warned.

美联储(Fed)一位高级官员警告称，如果美联储一边提高利率，一边缩减自身的数万亿美元资产负债表，就有可能拖累美国的经济复苏。

James Bullard, the St Louis Fed president and one of a handful of doves in the Fed system, said lifting rates four times in 2018 could drive down inflation — especially when the central bank’s programme of reducing its asset holdings is becoming “more and more forceful”.

圣路易斯联储银行(St Louis Federal Reserve)行长、美联储体系中为数不多的鸽派之一詹姆斯•布拉德(James Bullard)表示，2018年加息四次可能压低通胀——尤其是在美联储减少资产持有量的计划变得“越来越有力”的情况下。

The central bank began gradually unwinding its $4.5tn balance sheet in October last year.

去年10月，美联储开始逐步缩减其4.5万亿美元的资产负债表。

“You would not have to go very high in this environment to be in a restrictive policy stance,” Mr Bullard said in a Financial Times interview. “If we went too far we would start to put downward pressure on inflation in an environment where inflation is already below target.”

“在当前环境下，不必在限制性的政策立场上走得太远，”布拉德在接受英国《金融时报》采访时表示，“如果我们走得太远，我们将开始在通胀本已低于目标的情况下给通胀带来下行压力。”

But the balance of opinion in the Federal Open Market Committee is becoming more hawkish, largely because of the strength of the jobs market, which added 313,000 workers last month.

但联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)的观点正变得越来越鹰派，这主要是受到就业市场的鼓舞，上月就业人数增加了31.3万人。

Lael Brainard, traditionally one of the FOMC’s leading doves, argued last week that gradual interest rates were likely to be appropriate, as headwinds to growth became tailwinds. Such comments echo the sentiments of Jay Powell, the Fed Chairman.

传统上是联邦公开市场委员会领先鸽派成员之一的莱尔•布雷纳德(Lael Brainard)上周表示，随着增长的逆风成了顺风，渐进式加息可能是适当的。此言呼应了美联储主席杰伊•鲍威尔(Jay Powell)的观点。