#metoo运动将决定特朗普的命运
如果唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)不是美国总统的话，我们很难想象会出现“#我也是”(#MeToo)运动。如果他没有赢得2016年的总统大选，那么参加今年中期选举的女性候选人数量激增将是更难想象的。如果说民主党内仍有玻璃天花板，那么事到如今，这个天花板已属于博物馆。
Some call the female groundswell the “pink wave” — or Hillary Clinton’s revenge. We should therefore brace ourselves for an orange backlash. Mr Trump knows his fate hinges on how well women do in November. Democrats should be wary of playing into his hands.
有些人将女性迅速崛起的现象称为“粉红浪潮”——或者希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)的报复。因此，我们应做好迎接橙色(指特朗普——译者注)反冲的准备。特朗普知道，他的命运取决于女性在11月的表现。民主党人应警惕不要给他可乘之机。
Women’s rise in American politics has been astonishingly slow. A century after American women won the national vote, less than a fifth of Congress is female. Just 27 of the chief executives of the Fortune 500 companies are women. Apart from Nikki Haley, US ambassador to the UN, and a couple of strategists, the only prominent woman on Mr Trump’s team is his daughter Ivanka. It is not clear if Melania Trump, the other significant woman in the White House, is on her husband’s side. When asked last year where she would like to spend Christmas, the First Lady said “a deserted island”.
女性在美国政界崛起的速度非常之慢。在美国女性赢得选举权的一个世纪后，国会中女议员的比例还不到五分之一。《财富》(Fortune)500强企业的首席执行官中，只有27位女性。除美国驻联合国大使尼基•黑利(Nikki Haley)和几位策略师之外，特朗普团队中唯一扮演突出角色的女性是他女儿伊万卡(Ivanka)。目前尚未可知的是，白宫的另一位重要女性梅拉尼娅•特朗普(Melania Trump)是否站在她丈夫一边。去年当被问及她想在哪里过圣诞节时，这位第一夫人回答说“一个荒岛”。
If women simply voted for other women, Mr Trump’s goose would be cooked. But politics does not often work like that. More than half of the white women who voted in 2016 chose Mr Trump over Mrs Clinton. That rose to more than six in 10 of women without a college degree. On some Trumpian issues, such as fear of terrorism, the median female voter is to the right of the male. On others, such as guns in schools, she is to the left.
如果女性全都投票支持女性候选人，那么特朗普就会完蛋。但在政治中情况往往并非如此。在2016年，超过一半的白人女性投票给特朗普，而不是希拉里。在未取得大学学历的女性选民中，投票给特朗普的比例更高，超过6成。对于一些特朗普式问题(比如对恐怖主义的恐惧)，一般女性选民的态度比男性选民更右。对于其他问题(例如校园中的枪支问题)，她们的态度比男性选民更左。
Where do women stand on Mr Trump’s attitude towards women? Somewhere between disgusted and forgiving is the answer. It is not clear which way #MeToo can sway an election.
在特朗普对女性的态度上，女性的立场是什么?答案是居于厌恶和原谅之间的某个位置。目前还不清楚“#我也是”运动可能把中期选举带向哪个方向。
This is where Democrats should tread carefully. Al Franken, one of the left’s 2020 hopefuls, resigned his Senate seat in January after eight women said he had groped them. Though the allegations paled in comparison to those about Mr Trump, he was ejected without a hearing. His hopes vanished after Kirstin Gillibrand, the New York senator and presidential hopeful, called on him to resign. Many of her colleagues followed suit. So far, so good.
这是民主党人应小心行事的地方。左翼阵营中有望冲刺2020年大选的阿尔•弗兰肯(Al Franken)于今年1月辞去了参议员职位，此前有8名女性称遭他非礼。尽管与特朗普所遭指控相比，这些指控情节较轻，但他在未经听证的情况下就被驱逐。在纽约州参议员、有望成为总统候选人的柯尔斯滕•盖利布兰德(Kirsten Gillibrand)呼吁他辞职后，弗兰肯逐鹿白宫的希望破灭了。盖利布兰德的许多同事也纷纷效仿。到目前为止，一切顺利。
But here is the rub: more than half of voters in Mr Franken’s home state of Minnesota approved of the job he was doing. An even higher share of female voters — 57 per cent — agreed. Few Democratic voters, and even fewer women, thought he should have resigned.
但问题在于：在弗兰肯所代表的明尼苏达州，超过半数的选民认可他的工作。认可他工作的女性选民比例甚至更高，为57%。没多少民主党选民认为他应该辞职，持此观点的女性选民甚至更少。
Which brings me to the orange backlash. The #MeToo movement has two excesses Mr Trump will be sure to exploit. The first is the rush to pronounce guilt without a hearing. Mr Franken requested an inquiry, but politics lacks patience. Ms Gillibrand is now facing a backlash of her own from Democratic donors. What may help her with primary voters could boomerang in a general election. Second, the viral campaigns against men have sometimes conflated misbehaviour with criminal offences. That is the nature of Twitter.
这让我想到了橙色反冲。“#我也是”运动有两种过分行为，特朗普肯定会对它们加以利用。第一种是不经听证就急于宣判罪行。弗兰肯要求进行调查，但政治缺乏耐心。目前，盖利布兰德本身也遭到来自民主党捐赠者的反弹。在初选时也许对她有利的因素，在大选时可能反过来对她不利。其次，这场针对男性的风风火火的运动有时会将不当行为与刑事犯罪混为一谈。这就是Twitter的特性。
Many careers have been ended. Some of the men deserve lengthy jail sentences. Others should improve their manners. The latter may be collateral damage in a just war, but there are Americans of all genders who question the fairness of viral justice.
许多人的职业生涯已告终结。其中有些人应该被判长期监禁。其他人只需检点他们的行为。后者也许是一场正义战争的附带损害，但这种风风火火的正义是否公正，在无论男性还是女性美国人中都同样引发了质疑。
Against this, there is the Republican party. It should be little surprise so few women are applying to be candidates for a party led by Mr Trump. In December, Alabama’s voters broke the habit of a generation by electing a Democratic senator. Republicans had put up a man — Roy Moore — who was accused of serially dating teenaged girls. Mr Moore is now backing a Senate candidate in Missouri who calls feminists “she-devils”. If Republicans keep tolerating men like this, they will write themselves into oblivion. But such candidates tend to be outliers.
在这方面，共和党的情况正相反。如此少的女性申请成为特朗普所领导的共和党的候选人，这应该不令人意外。去年12月，阿拉巴马州的选民打破一代人的习惯，选出了一名民主党参议员。当时共和党人推出的候选人是罗伊•摩尔(Roy Moore)，此人被指控与多个十几岁的女孩约会。摩尔现在支持密苏里州的一位参议员候选人，后者把女权主义者称为“女魔头”。如果共和党人一直容忍这样的人，他们将自掘坟墓。但这样的候选人往往不属于主流。
Here is the more likely trend. Conservatives, for the most part, will stick with men such as Mike Pence, the vice-president. Mr Pence is an evangelical who has vowed never to dine alone with a woman except his own wife. He has been pilloried for his prudishness. How can anyone work in today’s world without being alone with a female colleague? It is altogether Saudi Arabian.
可能性较大的情况是这样的。保守派基本上将继续力挺副总统迈克•彭斯(Mike Pence)这样的男性。彭斯是一个福音派信徒，他发誓，除妻子外绝不和任何一位女性单独进餐。他因过分正经而受到嘲笑。在当今世界，从不与一位女同事独处一处的话，还怎么工作呢?这完全是沙特阿拉伯的做法。
But liberals are heading in a similar direction. Nearly a quarter of millennial males in the US say inviting a female peer for a drink is a form of harassment. Both parties are being tugged towards prudish extremes. One magnifies male anger; the other female. Neither captures the complexity of the average voter. If politics descends into a gender war, Mr Trump could be the winner.
但自由派正朝着一个类似方向前进。在美国，近四分之一的千禧一代男性表示，邀请一位女性同事喝酒是一种骚扰。两党都被推向了正襟危坐的极端。一方放大了男性的愤怒;另一方放大了女性的愤怒。两方都没有抓住普通选民的复杂诉求。如果政治沦为一场性别战争，特朗普就可能成为赢家。
