美国政治乱局给普京可趁之机

The White House national security adviser HR McMaster insists the evidence of Russian efforts to subvert US democracy is incontrovertible. His boss Donald Trump thinks the Federal Bureau of Investigation has better things to do than investigate the Kremlin’s interference in the 2016 election. Vladimir Putin’s Russia has been a big part of the reason for rising global insecurity. The absence of sober American leadership is now a bigger one.

白宫国家安全顾问H•R•麦克马斯特(HR McMaster)非常肯定地说，俄罗斯颠覆美国民主的行为证据确凿。而他的老板唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)却认为，联邦调查局(FBI)调查克里姆林宫干涉2016年美国大选是不务正业。弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)领导下的俄罗斯一直是全球安全局势日益恶化的一大原因。如今，美国缺乏头脑清醒的领导人成为一个更主要的原因。

The latest gathering of foreign policy and defence chiefs at the Munich Security Conference was nothing if not gloomy. Speaker after speaker stepped up to the podium to recite the list of threats. Mr Putin’s meddling in western elections sits alongside Russian revanchism in Ukraine; violent chaos in Syria and beyond, together with the spread of Islamist terrorism; North Korea’s quest for long-range nuclear missiles; and Beijing’s military build-up in the South China Sea.

各国外交政策和国防领导人齐聚的慕尼黑安全会议(Munich Security Conference)最近一次会议愁云惨淡。演讲者一个接一个登台，将目前全球面临的威胁清单背诵一遍：普京干预西方选举和俄罗斯在乌克兰的“收复”失地行动;叙利亚及其周边地区的暴力冲突和伊斯兰恐怖主义的蔓延;朝鲜研制远程核导弹;以及北京在南中国海的军事实力构筑。

More unnerving than any one flashpoint is the pervasive sense of powerlessness. It was one thing to enunciate the challenges. Missing was anything much in the way of solutions. We must all stick together, show resolve. This is what politicians say when they are lost. Resolve to what purpose?

比上述任何一个引爆点更令人不安的是，一种四处弥漫的无力感。指明现在面临哪些挑战是一回事。至于解决办法，则没有人说得出来。我们必须团结一致，展示我们的决心。这是政治家们在不知所措时常说的话。但我们展示决心的目的究竟是什么?

Leadership of the west rests with a US president at war with most of the American foreign policy establishment. Outsiders puzzling at the direction of US policy are told to dismiss the words of the president and commander-in-chief and focus on the course set by two generals — Jim Mattis at the Pentagon and Gen McMaster. But can we be sure Mr Trump is bluffing or might he indeed visit fire and fury on Pyongyang?

领导西方的重任落在一位正在跟美国传统外交政策圈大部分人掐架的美国总统身上。对美国政策方向感到困惑的局外人被告知，不要理会美国总统兼三军总司令的话，关注两位将军——五角大楼的吉姆•马蒂斯(Jim Mattis)和国家安全顾问麦克马斯特将军——为美国设定的路线。但是，特朗普是在虚张声势、还是或许确实想让平壤领教一下火和怒，我们能确定吗?

The post-cold war Pax Americana had entered its twilight before Mr Trump took office. US hegemony could not outlive the redistribution of economic power to the east and south — above all the rise of a China determined to reassert a global role. Barack Obama’s “leading from behind” was in part an admission of the shift. But Mr Trump’s embrace of a policy shaped around belligerent nationalism, repudiation of the rules-based order and his admiration for Mr Putin has collapsed America’s political authority abroad.

在特朗普上台之前，冷战后美国治下的和平(Pax Americana)已经日薄西山。随着经济实力的重心向东方和南方转移(尤其是一个决心重新在全球扮演角色的中国的崛起)，美国的霸权难以为继。巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)的“幕后领导”( leading from behind)的做法部分承认了这一转变。但特朗普奉行围绕好战民族主义形成的政策、否定基于规则的秩序并对普京钦佩有加，使美国在海外的政治权威分崩离析。

American power provided the glue of the international order — the backstop for the regional arrangements that by and large have kept the peace since 1945. There is nothing in sight to replace it. For all the financial pledges offered to Nato, Europe is still not sure it wants to defend itself properly. What counts as an alliance system in east Asia has rested entirely on the strength or otherwise of bilateral ties with the US.

美国的力量是国际秩序的粘合剂——这是各项地区性安排使世界自1945年以来大体上保持和平的后盾。目前还看不到有任何力量可以取代它。尽管北约获得了一切资金上的保证，欧洲仍不确定自己想不想承担起妥善保卫自己的责任。东亚的联盟体系完全取决于各个国家与美国的双边关系牢固与否。

It is in the Middle East, though, that the impact of US retreat has been most keenly felt. Militarily present in the daily assault on the remnants of Isis, politically the US is nowhere to be seen. Not so long ago Washington was the reference point for the policies of every player in the region. No one did anything before first considering what might be the likely reaction in the White House.

不过，最深刻感受到美国退却的影响的地区是中东。虽然美国通过参与每天对伊斯兰国(ISIS)残余势力的袭击在军事上显示了存在感，但在政治上美国毫无存在感可言。直到不久以前，该地区的每一方在制定政策时都还将华盛顿作为参照物。每一方在采取任何行动之前，都会首先考虑白宫可能的反应。

Now allies and adversaries alike sense they can act with impunity. When Israel bombed Syria the other day after an incursion into its airspace by an Iranian drone, it was Mr Putin who secured restraint. Saudi Arabia considers it has carte blanche to wage war in Yemen. Turkey is fighting Kurdish forces in Syria that have been armed by the Americans. Iran knows all too well that Mr Trump’s threatened repudiation of the deal would rupture Washington’s relationship with Europe.

现在，盟友和对手都觉得，他们可以想怎么做就怎么做，不用担心会有什么后果。当以色列因伊朗无人机从叙利亚起飞进入以领空而轰炸叙利亚时，站出来呼吁各方保持克制的是普京。沙特阿拉伯认为其完全有权在也门发动战争。土耳其正与美国武装的叙利亚库尔德部队作战。伊朗非常清楚，特朗普威胁要撕毁与其达成的协议将破坏华盛顿与欧洲的关系。

Then there is Mr Putin. Gen McMaster could hardly have said anything else after the justice department’s indictment of 13 Russian individuals and three companies for conspiring to change the outcome of the 2016 election. The indictment was a tribute to the work of special counsel Robert Mueller and a studied rebuke to those Republicans in congress who have joined the president in attacking America’s legal institutions. For all that, Mr Trump still has nothing bad to say about Mr Putin.

紧接着是普京。在美国司法部以密谋改变2016年大举结果为由，对13名俄罗斯人和3家俄罗斯公司提起诉讼之后，麦克马斯特将军说了开头提到的话，因为不那样说就不合适。这份起诉书是对特别检察官罗伯特•米勒(Robert Mueller)所做工作的褒奖，也是对和总统一道攻击美国法律制度的共和党议员的精心策划的反击。即便在这样的情况下，特朗普仍没有说一句普京的坏话。

Such divides are not going to make it easy to come up with an intelligent Russia policy. The problem is that there is nothing left except a choice between Mr Trump’s obsessive desire to strike a grand strategic bargain with Mr Putin and a hardening sentiment in Congress that says the attempt to manipulate American politics must be met with an escalating scale of punitive measures. Since the president’s plan is now a pipe dream, the odds are that the US will follow the second course. That promises another nuclear arms race and raises the threat of an unintended military clash in one of the world’s hotspots.

由于这种分歧，制定出一套明智的俄罗斯政策绝非易事。难办的是，美国目前别无选择，只能从以下两条路中二选一：特朗普一门心思想跟普京达成一项战略性大交易;国会则强硬地表示，对于操纵美国政治的企图，只能用不断升级的惩罚性措施来回应。既然总统的计划现在看来是白日发梦了，那么美国较大可能会选择第二条路。这可能会引发另一场核军备竞赛，并带来全球热点地区发生意外军事冲突的威胁。

There is no mystery about what would amount to a sensible course. The west learned during the cold war that the ingredients of productive engagement with Moscow are a readiness to confront aggression and a willingness to seek out areas of potential agreement. Deterrence and dialogue, I think it used to be called. The doctrine of mutually assured destruction did not preclude a procession of arms deals and confidence-building measures.

明智的道路是什么，这个问题不难回答。西方在冷战期间就已经明白，与莫斯科进行有成效接触的方法，就是在做好应对侵略的准备的同时，仍然有意愿寻找可能达成一致的地方。我记得这个方法就叫做威慑与对话并行。誓要致对方于死地的原则，并没有妨碍双方达成一系列军备控制协议并出台建立信任的措施。

Something of the same is needed now. In the absence of a coherent worldview in Washington no one should bet on it. The western policy chiefs in Munich were right to be worried about Mr Putin’s disdain for a rules-based international order. They should be more concerned about the failures of the US — and its allies — to come up with some answers to lower the temperature.

现在需要的是就是这样的策略。由于华盛顿没有一个清晰的全球观，谁都不应该对此抱多大希望。齐聚慕尼黑的西方政策制定者有理由为普京蔑视基于规则的国际秩序感到担忧。但他们应该更为这件事感到担忧：美国及其盟友未找到一些办法，为眼下的局势降温。

philip.stephens@ft.com 译者/何黎