为何特朗普摆脱不了俄罗斯？
唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)可能不再对俄罗斯感兴趣，但俄罗斯对他感兴趣。特别检察官罗伯特•米勒(Robert Mueller)现在已经起诉了19人，其中包括13名俄罗斯人和5名特朗普竞选团队的美国人。这只是开始。一旦米勒腾出手来调查莫斯科在美国大选期间的黑客活动，肯定还会起诉更多的俄罗斯人和美国人。对“水门事件”的调查在两年的时间里让一起失窃事件发展到总统辞职。米勒已经调查了9个月，现在看起来也有类似的时间表。
Familiarity lulls the mind. It is thus easy to miss the enormity of what is unfolding. Mr Mueller is playing a game of chess. Every move is made with his opponent’s king in mind. Last Friday, he boosted his defence by nailing Russia’s interference in the 2016 election. Do not take Mr Mueller’s word for it. HR McMaster, Mr Trump’s national security adviser, said Russia’s role was “now incontrovertible”. That makes it far harder for the president to fire Mr Mueller — something he has tried to do more than once. I would bet Mr Trump now sees General McMaster as a sacrificial pawn.
这一幕似曾相识，这让人们放松了警惕，因此很容易忽视正在发生事情的严重性。米勒正在下一盘棋，每一步都在逼宫。本月16日，他公布了俄罗斯对2016年美国大选的一些干涉行为，由此提升了自己的防御。不要相信米勒的话。特朗普的国家安全顾问赫伯特•雷蒙德•麦克马斯特(HR McMaster)表示，俄罗斯的角色“现在是无可置疑的”。这让特朗普更难解雇米勒——他不止一次试图解雇米勒。我敢打赌，特朗普现在已经把麦克马斯特将军视为弃子。
Mr Mueller is skilled at messing with his opponent’s head. Both Mr Trump and Mike Pence, the vice-president, say the charge sheet showed Russia had no effect on the outcome of the US election. In fact, the 37-page document was silent on Russia’s impact. It is telling that America’s two most senior statesmen are reading things that are not there.
米勒很擅长迷惑对手。特朗普和副总统迈克•彭斯(Mike Pence)都表示，诉状显示，俄罗斯没有对美国大选结果产生影响。事实上，这份37页的文件并没有提到俄罗斯的影响。这表明，美国的两位最高统帅读了子虚乌有的东西。
Mr Trump is obsessive about claims that his victory over Hillary Clinton was illegitimate. Sixteen months later he is still tweeting about it. Mr Trump’s sensitivity on 2016 prevents him from acknowledging Russia’s role. He won the election fair and square. Anything that casts doubt on that — especially Russia — is taboo.
有人宣称，特朗普对希拉里•克林顿(Hillary Clinton)的胜利是不合法的，特朗普对此耿耿于怀。16个月过去了，他仍在就这一点发表推文。特朗普对于2016年大选相关话题异常敏感，是不可能承认俄罗斯干预了大选的。他正大光明地赢得了选举。任何令人对此产生怀疑的东西——尤其是俄罗斯——都是禁忌。
Yet the biggest Russian shoe is yet to drop. Last week’s indictments focused on the St Petersburg-based internet troll farm. They said nothing about the email hacking of the Democratic party’s headquarters and senior members of Mrs Clinton’s campaign. Unlike the fake news operation, which was headed by a friend of Russian president Vladimir Putin, the hacking was almost certainly pulled off by the FSB and the GRU, Russia’s two main intelligence agencies. They funnelled their material through WikiLeaks, the site run by the fugitive Julian Assange.
然而，俄罗斯这只最大的靴子还没有落下。16日的诉状主要集中在总部位于圣彼得堡的互联网“巨魔农场”(troll farm)上，完全没有提及民主党总部和希拉里竞选班子高级成员的电子邮件遭遇黑客攻击的事件。与由俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)的一个朋友主导的“虚假新闻”行动不同，俄罗斯的两大情报机构联邦安全局(FSB)和格勒乌(GRU)几乎可以肯定从事了黑客活动。他们通过流亡者朱利安•阿桑奇(Julian Assange)经营的网站维基解密(WikiLeaks)发布材料。
Roger Stone, Mr Trump’s first campaign manager, had a knack for guessing when WikiLeaks would dump its next cache. Mr Trump would then forecast it from the hustings. He cited WikiLeaks 164 times in the last four weeks of the general election. The timing of the leaks was always helpful. The largest dump took place 32 minutes after the release of the notorious Access Hollywood tapes. Who is to say that smoke bomb did not alter the US election? Nobody can prove Russia’s impact either way, of course. With each move by Mr Mueller, Mr Trump will only become more obsessed with disproving it.
特朗普的首位竞选经理罗杰•斯通(Roger Stone)擅长猜测维基解密何时抛出下一个爆料。然后特朗普会在竞选活动中对此进行预测。他在大选最后四周引用了164次维基解密。爆料的时机总是有帮助的。在臭名昭著的《走进好莱坞》(Access Hollywood)录音发布32分钟后，最大的爆料出现了。谁会说烟雾弹没有改变美国大选?当然，没有人能够证明俄罗斯对两边阵营的影响。随着米勒步步紧逼，特朗普只会更加痴迷于反驳。
The stand-off between Mr Mueller and the US president is a geopolitical gift to Mr Putin. Mr Trump is unable to take the tough line on Moscow his advisers are urging. Six months after Congress passed new Russia sanctions, Mr Trump has yet to implement them. The gulf between Mr Trump’s instincts and the advice he receives is widening. His administration formally defines Russia as an adversary. That would have been Mrs Clinton’s stance were she in power. Mr Trump disagrees with it. America’s allies have no idea whom to believe — the president, or the people who work for him. They say different things.
米勒与特朗普的对峙是送给普京的地缘政治礼物。特朗普无法像其顾问敦促的那样对莫斯科采取强硬路线。在美国国会通过新的对俄制裁决议6个月后，特朗普仍未执行这些制裁。特朗普的本能和他收到的建议之间的分歧日益加剧。他的政府正式将俄罗斯定义为敌手。希拉里如果上台也会持这种立场。特朗普不这么认为。美国的盟友不知道该相信谁——特朗普还是为他工作的人。他们说着不同的事情。
Mr Putin is also reaping ideological dividends. Russia’s aim is to “sow discord” in US democracy, according to Mr Mueller. Mr Putin could open a new bank with the proceeds. Last week Dan Coats, Mr Trump’s director of national intelligence, told Congress he was sure Moscow would interfere in the upcoming US midterm elections. Yet Mr Trump will not even refer to the threat. His administration is doing very little to boost the resilience of America’s election process. We should put Mr Coats down as another dispensable pawn.
普京也在收获意识形态的红利。根据米勒的说法，俄罗斯的目标是在美国民主中“撒播不和”。普京可以用这些收益开一家新银行。数日前，特朗普的国家情报局局长丹•科茨(Dan Coats)告诉国会，他相信莫斯科将会干涉即将到来的美国中期选举。然而，特朗普甚至不会提到这种威胁。他的政府在提高美国选举过程的韧性方面几乎无所作为。我们应该把科茨当作另一个可有可无的棋子。
But the largest breakdown is with America’s law enforcement agencies. The Federal Bureau of Investigation says Russia tried to sabotage US democracy. Mr Trump insists that claim is a hoax. He even blamed last week’s Florida school massacre on the FBI probe. The agency had spent “too much time on Russia collusion” to act on tip offs about the school shooter, he said. That takes some mind-bending. Are they “laughing their asses off” in Moscow, as Mr Trump tweeted last weekend? They ought to be. America’s president is a gift that keeps on giving.
但最大的裂痕还是与美国执法机构之间的。联邦调查局(FBI)称俄罗斯试图破坏美国民主。特朗普坚持认为这种指控是场骗局。他甚至把14日的佛罗里达学校屠杀事件归咎于FBI的调查。他说，FBI花费了“太多时间调查通俄问题”，而忽视了枪击案凶手发出的种种信号。这种说法有些不可思议。就像特朗普不久前在推文中所说的那样，他们在莫斯科“笑掉大牙”了吗?应该会。这位美国总统实在是不断带来惊喜。
edward.luce@ft.com 译者/裴伴
