美联储副主席：货币政策继续逐步正常化是适当的
美联储(Federal Reserve)一名高层政策制定者表示，从很多方面衡量，美国经济处于自金融危机之前很久以来最健康的状态。他重申了美国央行有意逐步提高短期利率。
Randal Quarles, the Fed’s vice-chairman for financial supervision, told a conference in Tokyo that growth has been showing more momentum since the second quarter of last year, and that unemployment is at its lowest levels since the 1960s apart from a brief period from 1999 to 2000.
美联储负责金融监管的副主席兰德尔•夸尔斯(Randal Quarles，见文首照片)在东京的一个会议上表示，自去年第二季度以来，美国经济增长显示出更强势头，而失业率处于自上世纪60年代以来最低水平——除了从1999年到2000年的一段短暂时期以外。
“Against this economic backdrop, with a strong labour market and likely only temporary softness in inflation, I view it as appropriate that monetary policy should continue to be gradually normalised,” Mr Quarles said.
“在这样的经济大背景下，考虑到劳动力市场强劲，而通胀很可能只是暂时疲软，我认为货币政策继续逐步正常化是适当的，”夸尔斯表示。
The Fed has been signalling an increased determination to lift short-term rates, with officials in their January meeting emphasising the need to “further” tighten policy. While the arrival of Jay Powell, the new Fed chairman, coincided with an outbreak of volatility in financial markets, central bankers have suggested the gyrations have not derailed their plans for higher rates.
美联储近来发出的信号表明，其越来越有决心提高短期利率，官员们在1月会议上强调需要“进一步”收紧政策。虽然美联储新主席杰伊•鲍威尔(Jay Powell)上任之际适逢金融市场陷入一轮波动，但央行官员们表示，市场波动并未影响他们的加息计划。
One of the reasons for more increases is the added fiscal stimulus being injected into an economy that is already at full employment. In their latest rate-setting meeting at the end of January a number of Fed policymakers said that the effects of Congress’s $1.5tn tax-cutting package, while still uncertain, “might be somewhat larger in the near term than previously thought”.
进一步加息的理由之一是新增的财政刺激正在注入本已处于充分就业状态的美国经济。在1月底举行的上一次利率制定会议上，美联储多名政策制定者表示，国会的1.5万亿美元减税计划的影响尽管仍不确定，但“在近期产生的影响可能比之前想象的要大一些”。
Extra public spending is set to add to the stimulus, potentially driving annual budget deficits beyond $1tn as soon as next year. After the Fed’s January meeting Congress agreed to lift caps on discretionary spending by $300bn over two years.
额外的公共支出将加大刺激力度，可能使年度预算赤字最早在明年就超过1万亿美元。在美联储1月会议后，美国国会同意在未来两年将可自由支配支出的上限提高3000亿美元。
Mr Quarles said that corporate spending was picking up and the tax reductions pushed through by Congress in December could add to the economy’s momentum. “It might be early, but it is possible that the investment drought that has afflicted the US economy for the past five years may finally be breaking,” said Mr Quarles in his speech.
夸尔斯表示，企业支出正在增加，而去年12月国会推动通过的减税措施有望增强经济势头。“也许现在说这话有点早，但过去五年来困扰美国经济的投资‘旱季’可能终于即将结束，”夸尔斯在发言中表示。
“The tax and fiscal packages passed in recent months could help sustain the economy’s momentum in part by increasing demand, and also possibly by boosting the potential capacity of the economy by encouraging investment and supporting labour force participation.”
“最近几个月通过的税收和财政措施可能有助于维持经济增长势头——在一定程度上是通过增加需求，还可能通过鼓励投资和促进劳动力参与来提振经济的潜在生产力。”
The more bullish assessments emerging from Fed officials will trigger speculation about its assessment of the level of the so-called neutral rate of interest — that is, the rate that neither stimulates the economy nor holds it back.
美联储官员们发表更为乐观的评估将引发外界猜测：他们对于所谓的中性利率水平(既不会刺激经济也不会阻碍经济的利率)的评估会有什么变化?
In recent years the Fed has been pulling down its estimate of longer-run interest rate because it has become increasingly pessimistic about the economy’s potential. The median estimate in the Fed’s December forecast was for a longer-run interest rate of 2.8 per cent. Two years earlier its estimate was 3.5 per cent.
近年来，美联储不断降低其对较长期利率的估测，因为它对美国经济的潜力越来越悲观。在美联储去年12月的预测中，对较长期利率作出的中位数估测是2.8%，而两年之前的估测是3.5%。
But in an interview with the Financial Times in January, Bill Dudley, president of the New York Fed, argued that if the overhang from the financial crisis was easing it should lead to a higher neutral rate. Asked if that is already higher than people had been assuming, he said “it certainly could be” given stimulative fiscal policy and financial markets.
但纽约联储(New York Fed)主席比尔•达德利(Bill Dudley)在1月份接受英国《金融时报》采访时提出，如果金融危机带来的后遗症缓解了，那应该导致更高的中性利率。在被问及这个数字是否已经高于人们假设的水平时，他表示，考虑到刺激性的财政政策和金融市场状况，“肯定有这个可能”。
While Mr Quarles was relatively upbeat about the broad prospects for the US economy, he was more cautious about productivity, which helps drive a sustainable growth rate. “Why productivity growth has been so weak defies easy explanation. The weak pace of business investment is likely part of the story,” he said.
虽然夸尔斯对美国经济的整体前景相对乐观，但他在谈到生产率时态度更为谨慎，生产率增长将有助于推动可持续增长率。“为什么生产率增长如此疲弱，这个问题不容易解释。商业投资疲弱很可能是故事的一部分，”他表示。
