欧洲央行担心特朗普发动汇率战
欧元区对美元疲软的担忧在欧洲央行(ECB)会议纪要中表露无疑，这些会议纪要突显对特朗普政府蓄意挑起汇率战争的担心。
The account of the ECB’s January monetary policy meeting also reveals that its hawkish members pushed for a change in the bank’s communications, arguing economic conditions were now strong enough to drop a commitment to boost the quantitative easing programme in the event of a slowdown.
欧洲央行1月货币政策会议的记录还显示，其鹰派成员主张该行应该改变公开言论的措辞，他们辩称，经济状况现在已经足够强劲，不需要再承诺在经济放缓的情况下加大量化宽松计划力度。
Mario Draghi, ECB president, last month hit out at US Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin’s claim that a weak dollar was good for the American economy. Mr Draghi said Washington needed to uphold the rules of the international monetary system, which forbid nations from deliberately devaluing their currencies.
欧洲央行行长马里奥•德拉吉(Mario Draghi)上月抨击了美国财政部长史蒂文•姆努钦(Steven Mnuchin)有关弱势美元对美国经济有利的说法。德拉吉表示，华盛顿需要坚持国际货币体系的规则，这些规则禁止各国故意让本币贬值。
Mr Mnuchin’s remarks were seen as a signal that the US could ditch its strong dollar policy — which could lower eurozone exports and make it harder for the ECB to hit its inflation target.
姆努钦的言论被视为一个信号，即美国可能放弃其强势美元政策，这可能会削弱欧元区出口，并使欧洲央行更难达到其通胀目标。
Mr Mnuchin later said his comments were “completely consistent with what I’ve said before” and that he had merely made a “factual statement” that a weaker dollar would help the US on trade in the short term. President Donald Trump has also since reaffirmed the strong dollar policy.
姆努钦后来表示，他的言论“与我之前所说的完全一致”，他只是做出了一个“事实陈述”，即美元疲软在短期内将有助于美国的贸易。美国总统唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)随后重申了强势美元政策。
The accounts of the ECB meeting on January 24-25, published on Thursday, show Mr Draghi’s fears were widely shared among the bank’s decision makers. “Concerns were . . . expressed about recent statements in the international arena about exchange rate developments and, more broadly, the overall state of international relations,” the account said. “The importance of adhering to agreed statements on the exchange rate was emphasised.” Those agreements explicitly rule out competitive devaluations.
周四公布的1月24日至25日欧洲央行会议纪要显示，德拉吉的担忧在该行决策者中引发广泛共鸣。“与会者对于最近国际舞台上关于汇率动向的声明以及——更为广泛地说——国际关系总体状况表达了关注，”会议纪要称。“与会者强调了遵守关于汇率的约定声明的重要性。”那些约定明确排除竞争性货币贬值。
The volatility in the euro was, the account said, “a source of uncertainty which required monitoring”.
会议纪要称，欧元的波动是“一个需要监测的不确定因素来源”。
The decline in the greenback following Mr Mnuchin’s remarks led the euro to soar to $1.25 in the days following the January 25 meeting of the ECB. The euro is now trading below $1.23.
在姆努钦发表“弱势美元有利”言论后，美元走低导致欧元在欧洲央行1月25日会议后的几天飙升至1欧元兑1.25美元。目前欧元已回落至1欧元兑1.23美元水平以下。
The minutes highlighted dissent over the bank’s communications on its policy intentions, an element of what policymakers dub “forward guidance”.
会议纪要暴露了各成员围绕欧洲央行如何公开表述政策意图的分歧，这方面的措辞是政策制定者所称的“前瞻性指引”的一个元素。
The dissent was over the ECB’s promise to boost QE should economic conditions disappoint or financial conditions worsen.
分歧的焦点在于欧洲央行目前的一个承诺，即如果经济状况令人失望或金融状况恶化，该行将加大量化宽松力度。
“Some members expressed a preference for dropping the easing bias regarding the [QE programme] from the governing council’s communication as a tangible reflection of reinforced confidence in a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation,” the account said. “However, it was concluded that such an adjustment was premature and not yet justified by the stronger confidence.”
“一些成员表达了这样一个愿望，即从管理委员会的公开声明中删除有关(量化宽松计划的)宽松倾向的表述，以切实反映大家对通胀路径出现可持续调整的信心有所增强，”会议纪要称。“然而，会上得出的结论是，这样的调整还为时过早，而且尚未得到更强信心的支持。”
The central bank is now buying €30bn of bonds a month under the €2.5tn QE programme and will continue to do so until at least September.
根据2.5万亿欧元的量化宽松计划，欧洲央行目前每月购买300亿欧元债券，这种操作至少将持续至9月份。
