FT社评：制止美国枪支瘟疫蔓延
如果以往什么都没做，那如今为何要采取行动?5年前，在桑迪•胡克小学(Sandy Hook)，27名师生被枪杀。两年前，在奥兰多一家夜店，49人被枪杀。5个月前，在拉斯维加斯一个音乐节上，58人被枪杀。这些事件——当然，这还不是美国近年来发生的全部大规模枪击事件——都没有促使美国出台重要的全国枪支法案。
If these atrocities did not inspire change, the easy conclusion is that the death of 17 students and teachers in Parkland, Florida, last week will not lead to new laws, either. The US, on this view, has collectively decided that more than 30,000 gun deaths a year — a rate many times higher than the rest of the developed world — is a price worth paying for unrestricted access to firearms. The deaths will continue because they are rooted in US gun culture.
如果这些暴行未能激发变革，那很容易就会得出的结论是，上周佛罗里达州帕克兰17名师生的死亡也不会促使新的法律出台。根据这一观点，美国已集体决定，为了享有不受限制的持枪权，每年有超过30000人死于枪击——这一数字比其他发达国家高出许多倍——是值得付出的代价。
Such a conclusion, while tempting, is wrong. America does have a gun culture, but cultures are not immutable. In other areas — race relations, for example — cultural changes over the past half century have been immense. And there are signs of cultural change on firearms: the proportion of US households that own guns has decreased significantly in recent decades. While national legislative change has been minimal, the funding and organisation of gun control groups, such as the Brady Campaign and Moms Demand Action, is improving.
尽管我们很容易得出这个结论，但它并不正确。美国的确有枪支文化，但文化却并非是一成不变的。在其他领域——如种族关系——过去半个世纪以来就发生了巨大的文化改变。有迹象表明，枪支文化也发生了变化：最近数十年，美国拥有枪支的家庭比例大幅下降。虽然全国的立法改变微乎其微，但布拉迪运动(Brady Campaign)及Moms Demand Action等枪支管制团体的资金状况和组织情况都在改善。
For the first time, the young survivors of a school shooting are speaking out, and the classmates of the victims in Parkland speak very well indeed. President Trump, a stalwart friend of the gun lobby, is calling for a ban on “bump stocks” which turn semi-automatic weapons into machine guns. The political calculus may be shifting.
帕克兰枪击案遇难者的同学们公开发声，这在美国校园枪击案的年轻幸存者中是头一次，并且他们的发言很出色。枪支游说团体的忠实朋友、美国总统特朗普，正在呼吁禁用将半自动武器变为机枪的“撞火枪托”。政治上的考量也许正在改变。
Incremental measures such as a bump stock ban will not end mass shootings. Even if all gun sales were banned today, the sheer number of guns in the the US — more than one per person — means that the gun plague would rage on. Gun violence cannot, sadly, be overcome all at once or by any single measure. Indeed, it has at least four distinct strands: domestic violence, urban violence, suicide, and mass shootings. This does not mean we should do nothing. Reducing the harm done by each form of gun violence will require different policies, from background checks to better tracking of high-risk individuals. Each step will have a only a small effect. That does not make them collectively futile.
禁止“撞火枪托”等渐进式举措不会终结大规模枪击事件。即使如今禁止一切枪支销售，美国人持有枪支的绝对数量——人均超过一支——也意味着枪支瘟疫仍将肆虐。可悲的是，枪支暴力的问题不可能立即或通过任何单一的举措得到解决。事实上，这一问题有着4个不同的组成部分：家庭暴力、城市暴力、自杀和大规模枪击事件。这并不表示我们就该听之任之。减少每种枪支暴力所造成的伤害需要不同的政策，从背景调查到更好地追踪高危个体。每一步都只会起到微小的效果，但加在一起并不是白费力气。
That said, over decades to come, the goal should be broad: significantly reducing the number of guns of all sorts in America. The form of gun violence that takes by far the most lives, suicide, demonstrates this. Well over half of all US gun deaths are suicides, and the strong link between gun ownership and suicide has been demonstrated. Suicide is an impulsive act, and is more likely when effective means are at hand. Yes, as gun rights advocates point out, suicide rates in the US are in line with global averages. But the data suggest that America — an optimistic country — might be below the average if it were not for its gun problem.
尽管如此，未来几十年，目标应该是远大的：大幅减少美国各类枪支的数量。迄今为止，剥夺了最多生命的枪支暴力就是自杀，这正说明了这一点。美国枪支致死人数的一半以上都是自杀所致，持有枪支和自杀之间的紧密联系已得到证实。自杀是一种冲动行为，手头有称手的工具就更可能导致这种行为的发生。是的，正如持枪权利倡导者指出的那样，美国的自杀率与全球平均水平相当。但数据显示，如果没有枪支问题，美国这个乐观国家的自杀率可能会低于平均水平。
Almost any gun is effective for suicide. Locking a gun away is little help when the person most likely to use it — the man of the house — has the keys. The same holds true for domestic killings. Understandably massacres such as Parkland capture attention and focus minds, but America’s gun addiction is destroying lives and families every day. The best way to cut all forms of gun death is to reduce the number of guns. This will take many years. No single change will make it happen. But it can undoubtedly be done.
用几乎任何枪支都能实施自杀。当最有可能使用枪的那个人、也就是房子的主人拥有钥匙时，把枪锁起来没什么用。家庭枪杀也是如此。可以理解的是，帕克兰等惨案最引人关注和令人忧心，但美国的持枪瘾每天都在制造家破人亡的惨剧。要想减少各种形式的枪支致死事件，最好的办法就是减少枪支的数量。实现这一目标需要很多年的时间。任何单一的改变都不会令其发生。但这无疑是可以做到的。
