FT大视野：向数据要石油

Just a few miles down the road from Facebook’s headquarters, Schlumberger’s Software Technology Innovation Center in leafy Menlo Park feels like just another Silicon Valley business with dreams of changing the world.

在郁郁葱葱的美国加州门洛帕克市(Menlo Park)，就在距离Facebook总部不远的地方，坐落着斯伦贝谢(Schlumberger)的软件技术创新中心(Software Technology Innovation Center)，这里给人的感觉就像又一家梦想改变世界的硅谷企业。

Walls are covered with Post-it notes with ideas for product features and design principles, and the canteen has bowls of fruit and a shared pizza delivery every Friday lunchtime. Some of the engineers use standing desks and balance boards to exercise while they work. They are drawn from a diverse range of countries and industry backgrounds: one was at Nasa before coming here, another worked for HBO.

墙上贴满了便签纸，上面写着关于产品特点和设计原则的想法，食堂放着水果盘，每周五的午餐时间有共享的外卖披萨。一些工程师在工作时使用站立式办公桌和平衡板来锻炼身体。他们来自不同国家和各种各样的行业背景：其中一位之前在美国国家航空航天局(NASA)工作，另一位之前为HBO电视频道工作。

Like many successful engineers in northern California, Ashok Belani, Schlumberger’s executive vice-president for technology and the force behind the centre, drives a Tesla to work.

像北加州许多成功的工程师一样，斯伦贝谢负责技术的执行副总裁、该中心的灵魂人物阿肖克•贝拉尼(Ashok Belani)驾驶一辆特斯拉(Tesla)上班。

What Schlumberger is doing, however, is far from typical for Silicon Valley: it is working to increase output and cut costs for an activity at the heart of the old economy, oil and gas production.

然而，斯伦贝谢从事的业务与硅谷的典型企业相去甚远：该公司正致力于为一项处于旧经济核心的活动——石油和天然气生产——提高产出，降低成本。

The technology centre that the oilfield services group has created is a sign of the huge changes under way in oil and gas, as the industry begins to adopt the latest innovations in information technology. Techniques such as advanced data analytics, used by Google, Facebook, Amazon and others mainly to disrupt consumer-facing businesses, are now increasingly being applied to the energy industry. Many oil executives believe the results could be similarly dramatic.

这家油田服务集团创建的技术中心，体现了石油和天然气领域正在发生的巨大变化，目前，该行业正开始应用信息技术领域的最新创新。谷歌(Google)、Facebook、亚马逊(Amazon)等公司使用的、旨在颠覆面向消费者的企业的先进数据分析等方法，正越来越多地被应用于能源行业。石油业许多高管认为，其结果可能同样戏剧性。

The new opportunities being opened up include analysis of rocks to target wells more precisely in oil-bearing areas, reservoir models to enable production to be maximised through the lifetime of an oilfield, and automation that can make operations safer, more efficient and cheaper. 正被开辟的新机会包括：岩层分析，以便在油区更精确地钻井;油层模型，使相关油田在整个生命周期的产出最

大化;自动化，使开采作业更安全、更高效率、成本更低。

The increased production made possible by these innovations will put downward pressure on oil prices, creating headwinds for competing technologies including electric cars, and potential difficulties for producers in other countries that are not able to cut their costs the same way. It will also mean disruption for many in the oil industry, with job losses and changes in working patterns and culture.

这些创新带来的产出增加，将给油价带来下行压力，给电动车之类的竞争性技术带来阻力，潜在还会给其他国家无法以同样方式削减成本的生产商带来困难。这种局面还意味着给石油行业的许多参与者带来剧变，导致失业以及工作模式和文化的变化。

Matt Rogers of McKinsey, the consultancy, says forecasters have failed to grasp fully the scale of the coming changes. “I don’t think we’ve built into our supply-side models just how much more oil this will provide,” he says. “The world in 10 years will feel very different . . . It’s going to feel like we’re in Star Wars compared to where we are now.”

咨询公司麦肯锡(McKinsey)的马特•罗杰斯(Matt Rogers)表示，预测者未能充分把握即将到来的变化的规模。“我认为我们并未在供应侧模型中计入这将带来多少额外的石油产量，”他说，“10年后的世界将让人感觉有很大的不同……与现在的局面相比，那时将让人感觉身处《星球大战》(Star Wars)时代。”

Big Data | Big Oil 大数据|大石油

1m 100万

Number of sensors collecting data in Chevron oilfield in Kazakhstan

在雪佛龙(Chevron)哈萨克斯坦油田采集数据的传感器数量

10%-20% 10%-20%

IEA estimate of cut in oil production costs from digital technologies

国际能源署(IEA)估算的数字技术可带来的石油生产成本降幅

The oil industry has for decades been at the cutting edge of advances in information technology. John Browne, the former chief executive of BP, began his career at the end of the 1960s mapping oil reservoirs in Alaska using a computer that was the state of the art at the time. On the Top 500 list of the world’s most powerful supercomputers today, the leading private sector owners include Total and Eni, the French and Italian oil groups, and Petroleum Geo Services, a reservoir imaging company.

几十年来，石油行业一直处于信息技术进步的前沿。英国石油公司(BP)前首席执行官约翰•布朗(John Browne)上世纪60年代末开始他的职业生涯时，使用一台当时极为先进的电脑在阿拉斯加绘制油层。在当今世界上最强大的超级计算机500强名单中，主要私营部门所有者包括法国石油集团道达尔(Total)、意大利埃尼石油(ENI)以及油藏成像公司Petroleum Geo Services。

The difference now is the rise of cloud computing services, which make it possible to store and analyse data at a relatively low cost, opening up possibilities for new applications for a much wider range of companies. The oil industry generates large volumes of data, both structured, such as temperature and pressure readings; and unstructured, such as video footage — and the quantity is growing all the time. The cost of sensors for collecting more data are falling and their sophistication rising, making it possible to monitor more aspects of an operation such as drilling a well.

现在的不同之处在于，云计算服务的发展使得以相对较低的成本存储和分析数据成为可能，从而为更大范围的企业打开了新应用的大门。石油行业产生大量数据(包括温度、压力读数等结构化的数据，以及视频等非结构化的数据)，且数量一直在增加。用于采集更多数据的传感器的成本正在下降，而技术含量不断提升，使监测钻井等作业的更多方面成为可能。

Bill Braun, chief information officer of Chevron, the US oil group, says the volume of data the company handles has been doubling every 12-18 months. The expansion of its Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan, scheduled to start production in 2022, will include about 1m sensors.

美国石油集团雪佛龙首席信息官比尔•布劳恩(Bill Braun)表示，该公司处理的数据量每12至18个月就翻一番。该集团在哈萨克斯坦Tengiz油田的扩建项目(计划于2022年投产)将包含约100万个传感器。

Much of the industry’s data are never used, however. “A lot of data are collected, but a lot of it is very isolated,” says Binu Mathew, head of product management for digital at Baker Hughes, the oilfield services group majority owned by General Electric. “Only a small percentage of it is actually being analysed.”

然而，石油业的很多数据都从未被使用过。“大量数据被采集，但其中有很多是孤立的，”通用电气(GE)持有多数股的油田服务集团贝克休斯(Baker Hughes)的数字产品管理主管比努•马修(Binu Mathew)表示，“实际上只有一小部分得到了分析。”

Al Walker, chief executive of Anadarko Petroleum, a US independent oil producer, observed at the CERAWeek conference in Houston last year that although the company recorded a lot of data, “we don’t do that much with it”. He added: “I have terabytes and terabytes of seismic data, and I might use 5 per cent of that.”

美国独立石油企业阿纳达科石油公司(Anadarko Petroleum)首席执行官阿尔•沃克(Al Walker)去年在休斯顿举行的剑桥能源周(CERAWeek)会议上表示，尽管该公司记录了大量数据，但“我们并没怎么利用”。他补充说：“我有TB级的海量地震勘测数据，而我或许用了其中的5%。”

Now that is changing. Data that have been collected on engineers’ laptops, or on paper, out in the field, and sometimes copied over by hand, can instead be transferred automatically back to the office. Old records stretching back decades are being converted into coherent data sets. A survey of oil executives last year by Accenture, another consultancy, found 70 per cent of them expected to invest more in digital technologies, with data storage and services the top priorities. It has become a cliché to say that “data are the new oil” — many companies are now looking for ways to turn data into oil.

现在这种局面正在改变。以往由工程师在现场记录在笔记本电脑或者手写在本子上、有时随后用手工誊写的数据，现在可以自动传送回办公室。可以追溯至几十年前的旧记录正被转换为一致的数据集。咨询公司埃森哲(Accenture)去年对石油业高管进行的一项调查发现，70%的受访者预期将加大对数字技术的投资，重点是数据存储和服务。“数据就是新石油”的说法已成为老生常谈，许多公司正在寻找将数据转化为石油的方法。

There has been a spate of alliances between IT companies and oil companies. Microsoft last year signed strategic partnerships with Halliburton, another large oilfield services group, and with Chevron. Nvidia, which makes high-performance chips first used in the video game industry, has been working with Schlumberger, Halliburton and others to adapt its technology for viewing and interpreting seismic information. A year ago it announced a partnership with Baker Hughes on using artificial intelligence to help extract and process oil and gas.

IT公司和石油公司之间已经结成了大量联盟。微软(Microsoft)去年与大型油田服务集团哈利伯顿(Halliburton)以及雪佛龙签署了战略合作伙伴关系。制造用于视频游戏的高性能芯片的英伟达(Nvidia)，一直在与斯伦贝谢、哈利伯顿等公司合作，以便将该公司的技术用于查看和解读地震勘测信息。一年前，英伟达宣布与贝克休斯合作，利用人工智能帮助开采和加工石油和天然气。

The new technologies are creating business opportunities. Schlumberger, now the world’s largest listed oilfield services group, was founded by two French brothers who in 1926 launched a company to use electrical measurements to map rocks below the surface. Understanding what is happening in oil and gas reservoirs below the surface is still the company’s core competency, but it is increasing the range of services it can provide. Last year it launched a new software system called Delfi, which makes it possible to bring together and co-ordinate the way wells are designed, drilled and brought into production, to maximise output from an entire oilfield.

新技术正在带来种种商业机会。如今是全球最大上市油田服务集团的斯伦贝谢，由两名法国兄弟在1926年创立，他们利用电阻率测井法来测绘地下岩层。探测地下油气层状况仍是该公司的核心竞争力，但该公司正在扩大服务范围。去年，该公司推出了一款名为Delfi的新软件系统，可用于整合和协调油井设计、钻井和完井的方式，以最大限度提高整个油田的产出。

Mr Belani hopes that by the end of this year, oil companies will be using the technology “on a regular basis” in the US and around the world. In the shale oilfields of the US, the new system could cut production costs by 40 per cent within the next decade, he says.

贝拉尼希望，到今年底，石油公司将在美国乃至世界各地“常态化地”使用这项技术。他表示，在美国的页岩油田，这一新系统有望在未来10年内使生产成本降低40%。

Other estimates of the impact of digital technologies are more modest. The International Energy Agency, the habitually cautious government-backed watchdog, last year suggested it could cut oil and gas production costs by 10-20 per cent.

其他人对数字技术带来的影响的估计更为保守。作为政府支持的监督机构，国际能源署向来比较谨慎，该机构去年提出，数字技术有望使油气生产成本降低10%至20%。

But Mr Belani says digitalisation represents a “step change” in the industry’s economics, just like the advances in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing that first made production of shale gas commercially viable, about 15 years ago.

但贝拉尼表示，数字化代表了行业经济性的一大“巨变”，就像水平钻井和水力压裂技术的进步在大约15年前首次使页岩气生产具备商业可行性那样。

“It might help keep oil prices at the reasonable levels, meaning in the $60s, and let everyone produce economically,” he says.

他说：“这或许有助于使油价保持在合理水平，也就是在每桶60至70美元之间，让每家企业都能以经济上可行的方式生产。”

Like Schlumberger, GE has chosen to put some of its digital operations in the San Francisco Bay area, to develop links with local IT businesses and with Stanford University, and to draw on the region’s pool of talent.

和斯伦贝谢一样，通用电气也选择把一部分数字业务放在旧金山湾区，以便与当地IT公司和斯坦福大学(Stanford University)建立联系，并利用该地区的人才资源。

Across the bay from Silicon Valley, in San Ramon, Baker Hughes has a digital technology centre in a building shared with the software operations of its parent GE. It also shares GE’s software platform, Predix, which it uses for applications for oil and gas.

在与硅谷隔着一道海湾的圣拉蒙市(San Ramon)，贝克休斯数字技术中心与母公司通用电气的软件业务合用一栋大楼。它还共享通用电气的软件平台Predix，将其用于油气领域的应用。

One of the parts of the industry that is moving fastest to grasp the potential of the new technologies has been the shale business in North America. Many thousands of wells are drilled there every year, making it possible to learn from past efforts and quickly apply those lessons. There have been spectacular increases in productivity, driven in recent years by refinements that are sometimes referred to as “shale 2.0”, including drilling longer horizontal wells. But progress so far has largely been a matter of trial and error: experimenting with a new technique and keeping going if it seems to work.

最快采取行动抓住新技术潜力的行业参与者是北美的页岩产业。北美每年钻凿好几千口井，使得企业可以从过去的努力吸取经验，然后迅速将其应用于实践。近年来，在有时被称为“页岩2.0”的各种技术革新的推动下，生产率出现了大幅提升。但迄今的进展在很大程度上是一个试错的过程：用一种新方法进行实验，如果看起来管用，就继续进行下去。

Data analytics offer a chance to make that experimentation more scientific and inject new life into productivity. Some early results have been promising: BP’s chief executive Bob Dudley said last week that it had worked with a Silicon Valley start-up to develop an optimisation model, and had been able to raise production at the 180 wells in its pilot project by 20 per cent.

数据分析提供了一个机会，让实验更加科学，并为生产率注入新的活力。一些初步成果显示出光明前景：英国石油(BP)首席执行官戴德立(Bob Dudley)最近表示，该公司与硅谷一家初创企业合作开发了一种优化模型，已将试点项目中的180口油井的产量提高了20%。

The potential gains are huge. Companies are recovering only about 8-10 per cent of the oil in place in US shale, so if new systems could raise that rate by even a few percentage points, the results would be dramatic.

潜在收益巨大。在美国页岩油行业，目前企业仅能采收约8%至10%的石油地质储量，因此，如果新系统能将采收率提高哪怕几个百分点，结果都将是戏剧性的。

There is also a lot of scope for automation in shale. Today there might be 26 people in a drilling rig crew, Mr Belani says. In five years’ time there could be just five.

页岩行业还有很大的自动化空间。贝拉尼表示，现在一个钻井平台上可能有26名工作人员，而5年后可能5人就够了。

Mr Braun says that now, “humans are largely driving the drill bit. But we believe that will increasingly be automated and turned over to a computer, just like an autopilot in an aircraft.”

布劳恩表示，如今，“人力主要的作用是操纵钻头。但我们相信，这种操作将日益自动化，并转交由电脑处理，就像飞机上的自动驾驶仪一样。”

Automation is already on the rise. Schlumberger has started shifting its horizontal drilling experts from out in the field to its Houston offices, from where they can watch over operations for six wells at a time, instead of just one.

自动化程度已开始上升。斯伦贝谢已开始将其水平钻井专家从现场转移到其休斯顿办公室。在那里，专家们可以一次监视6口、而非仅仅1口油井的作业。

Like other sectors disrupted by the latest wave of innovation, the oil industry is facing radical changes in terms of job losses and transformed employment patterns. “It’s going to be uncomfortable for a while,” Mr Rogers says.

就像被最新一轮创新浪潮颠覆的其他行业一样，石油业面临着巨大的变化，包括失业和用工模式转变。“这种不舒服会持续一段时期，”麦肯锡的罗杰斯说。

Realising the full potential of the new technologies will mean bringing in more people with skills in software and data science. It will also mean overhauling corporate structures. “There’s a lot of problems still to be solved,” says Kausar Qazilbash of Accenture. “It’s not simple: it’s a massive shift in management that requires technological change and operational change.”

实现新技术的全部潜力，将意味着引进更多具备软件和数据科学技能的人才，还将意味着彻底改革公司结构。“还有很多问题有待解决，”埃森哲的考萨尔•卡齐尔巴什(Kausar Qazilbash)说，“这并不简单：这是重大的管理转型，需要技术变革和运营变革。”

If it can be accomplished successfully, the adoption of the new digital techniques will help defend oil and gas against the growing threat from renewable energy, battery storage and electric vehicles. Those new energy technologies are rapidly improving efficiency and cutting costs. But their old rivals in fossil fuels are not standing still.

如果这种转型能够成功完成，采用新的数字技术将帮助石油和天然气抵御可再生能源、蓄电池储能和电动车日益增长的威胁。新能源技术正在迅速提高效率和降低成本，但它们在化石燃料领域的老对手并没有止步不前。

“We are just scratching the surface of what can be done with artificial intelligence,” says Mr Mathew at Baker Hughes. “This is one of those uses that will change the world.”

“在人工智能可以做到什么的问题上，我们只是触及了表面，”贝克休斯的马修说，“这是那些将改变世界的用途之一。”

New techniques: How oil groups are using computers to cut costs

延伸阅读——新方法：石油集团如何使用计算机降低成本

The oil and gas industry is beginning to adopt new techniques made possible by modern computers that can store and process large and complex data sets. Often these techniques will employ “machine learning”, a form of artificial intelligence that uses algorithms to draw conclusions by studying large data sets. The applications include:

石油和天然气行业已开始采用因现代计算机而变得可能的新方法，这些计算机可以存储和处理大型复杂的数据集。这些方法往往采用“机器学习”，这是一种利用算法的人工智能形式，通过研究大型数据集来得出结论。其应用场合包括：

Seismic analysis

地震勘测分析

Building a picture of rock formations and the location of oil and gas miles below the surface using seismic and other surveys is a highly complex operation. Powerful computers enable companies to understand more about the geology of regions that are difficult to observe, and to predict more accurately where oil can be found.

利用地震勘测和其他勘测来绘制地下数英里处岩层和油气藏位置，是一项非常复杂的工作。强大的计算机使企业能够加深了解难以观测的地区的地质情况，并更准确地预测在哪里有望找到石油。

Production optimisation

生产优化

The flow of oil from a reservoir depends on a complex range of factors including the length and spacing of the wells and the types of fracturing used. Modern techniques allow companies to maximise the value from a field, sometimes throttling back initial production to achieve a higher ultimate return.

源自油藏的石油流动取决于一系列复杂的因素，包括油井的长度和间距，以及使用的压裂类型。现代技术让企业得以实现油田价值的最大化，有时会抑制初始产量，以获得更高的最终回报。

Predictive maintenance

预见性维护

Studying all the data associated with pieces of equipment such as pumps and valves can give indications as to when they are likely to fail, allowing them to be repaired or replaced before they break. The result is better safety and an ability to streamline maintenance schedules.

研究关于设备部件(如泵和阀门)的所有数据，可以发现有关它们何时可能发生故障的迹象，以便在它们损坏之前进行修理或更换。其结果是更好的安全性，并且有能力简化维护日程表。

Automation

自动化

The spread of intelligent and connected devices means that processes that traditionally needed skilled staff at a wellhead or processing plant can increasingly be run remotely. The result will be lower labour costs, greater safety with fewer workers in hazardous environments, and increased efficiency.

智能和网联设备的普及意味着，传统上在井口或加工厂需要熟练员工操作的流程，可以越来越多地以远程方式操作。其结果将是降低劳动力成本，减少危险环境中工人数量从而提高安全性，以及提高效率。

Security 网络安全

The energy industry is already a prime target for cyber attacks, such as the Shamoon and Shamoon 2 viruses that hit Saudi Aramco in 2012 and 2016. Increased mobile connectivity, the greater use of operational data and automation create new vulnerabilities, and oil companies need to deploy the most advanced technology to protect themselves.

能源行业已成为网络攻击的一个主要目标，比如2012年和2016年袭击沙特阿拉伯国家石油公司(Saudi Aramco，简称沙特阿美)的Shamoon 和Shamoon 2病毒。移动联网的增多、对作业数据加大利用以及自动化带来了新漏洞，因此石油公司需要部署最先进的技术来保护自己。