美国将非洲战略机遇让给中国

From the South China Sea to the Middle East, the US is losing its status as an unrivalled superpower. In few places is this loss of influence so apparent as in Africa, where Beijing senses a strategic opportunity and where Washington is increasingly viewed as a fickle — even absentee — ally.

从南中国海到中东，美国正不断失去其作为无可匹敌的超级大国的地位。这种影响力的丧失最明显不过的地方之一就是非洲了——北京在非洲嗅到了战略机遇，而华盛顿在非洲眼中越来越像一个反复无常、甚至缺席的盟友。

If there is a mirror image of Donald Trump’s America First policy, it is to be found in the world’s poorest continent. You could call it Africa Last.

如果唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的“美国优先”(America First)政策有一个镜像，那么你将在这个全世界最贫穷的大洲找到它。你可以称之为“非洲最后”(Africa Last)。

African leaders have mostly played down US disengagement. They have shrugged off Mr Trump’s lavatorial comparisons and his invention of the 55th African state of “Nambia”. They have ignored snubs, such as when Mr Trump walked out of the working session on Africa at last year’s G20 in Hamburg. But they cannot help noticing the Africa-shaped hole where Washington’s African strategy should be.

非洲领导人对美国的撒手不管基本表现得若无其事。他们没理睬特朗普粗鲁的言论以及他生造了第55个非洲国家“Nambia”。对特朗普的怠慢——比如去年在汉堡20国集团(G20)会议上特朗普退出非洲工作会议——他们视而不见。但他们无法不注意到华盛顿原本的非洲战略不见了，只剩下一个非洲形状的破洞。

The US, says Mo Ibrahim, a Sudanese telecoms billionaire and a champion of better governance, has lost its authority to “as the leader of the liberal world and backbone of the international order”. Dictators are increasingly isolated in Africa, as the recent ousting of Robert Mugabe in Zimbabwe confirms. But leaders sense waning US commitment to African democracy, says Mr Ibrahim, and those autocrats who remain gain succour from Mr Trump’s apparent admiration of strongmen.

莫•易卜拉欣(Mo Ibrahim)是苏丹一位电信亿万富翁，他支持改善治理。易卜拉欣表示美国已经失去了“作为自由主义世界的领导者和国际秩序的支柱”的权威性。就像罗伯特•穆加贝(Robert Mugabe)最近在津巴布韦被赶下台所证明的，独裁者在非洲日益受到孤立。但易卜拉欣表示，非洲领导人感到美国对非洲民主的承诺越来越无力，特朗普对强人的明显赞赏还为那些依然在位的非洲独裁者壮了胆。

America’s shrinking influence in Africa did not begin under Mr Trump. The commitment of Barack Obama, his Kenyan roots notwithstanding, fell short of that shown by George W Bush, whose conversion to African causes — particularly the fight against HIV — made him a hero on the continent.

美国在非洲的影响力下降并非始于特朗普上任。巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)尽管祖籍肯尼亚，但其对非洲的承诺与小布什(George W Bush)相比要逊色不少——小布什对非洲事业的贡献(尤其是在艾滋病防治方面)令他在非洲成了一位英雄。

However, the sense of US withdrawal has accelerated. Mr Trump’s threat to cut the US aid budget by 30 per cent signals a massive scaling down of its commitment to a health and poverty-reduction agenda that has enjoyed bipartisan support in Washington for decades.

然而，就人们的感觉而言，美国从非洲大陆脱身的速度加快了。特朗普威胁要将美国的援助预算下调30%，这意味着美国对如下这项数十年来得到两党一致支持的议程的承诺大幅减弱：促进人类健康和减少贫困。

“There is no high policy, at least none that I can find,” says John Campbell, former US ambassador to Nigeria.

前美国驻尼日利亚大使约翰•坎贝尔(John Campbell)表示：“没有高层政策，至少我没发现。”

Why should this matter? Africa accounts for only 3 per cent of global trade, and the US has few of the colonial ties that have preserved commercial and diplomatic interest in the continent from Britain, France, Portugal and Belgium. The US business relationship with Africa is almost exclusively extractive. Oil majors, such as Chevron and ExxonMobil, secretary of state Rex Tillerson’s old company, are the biggest investors. The likes of GE, Google and Citigroup are among a handful of non-extractives making any sort of bet on a continent that, though poor, contains several of the world’s fastest-growing economies.

此事为何重要?非洲仅占全球贸易的3%，而且美国与非洲之间没有多少殖民时代留下的纽带——这种纽带让英国、法国、葡萄牙和比利时在非洲依然留有商业和外交利益。美国与非洲的商业关系几乎完全局限于资源开采方面。像雪佛龙(Chevron)和埃克森美孚(ExxonMobil)——美国务卿雷克斯•蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson)曾执掌的企业——这样的石油巨头是最大的投资者。通用电气(GE)、谷歌(Google)和花旗集团(Citigroup)等公司是少有的几家投资了非洲的非资源型美国企业——非洲虽然贫穷，却拥有多个全球增长最快的经济体。

There are non-commercial reasons to think harder about Africa. By 2050, the number of Africans will have doubled to more than 2bn and may double again by the end of the century. The danger is that Africa will become home to a restless, jobless urban youth, tempted to join the swelling flow of emigrants to Europe or prone to radicalisation.

看重非洲，还有一些商业以外的原因。到2050年，非洲人口数量将翻一番，达到20亿以上，到本世纪末可能还要再翻一番。存在这样的危险：非洲将有大量躁动不安的无业城市青年，他们可能会加入不断壮大的移民大军涌向欧洲，或易于变得激进。

As the US presence fades, that of China has grown. Its influence is everywhere: in roads, rail, telecoms, infrastructure and in Djibouti, in a naval base. Of the UN Security Council’s five members, China has the most peacekeepers in Africa. When Zimbabwe’s generals were preparing to ease Mr Mugabe from power, it was Beijing, not Washington, they tipped off first.

随着美国势力消减，中国势力渐长。从公路、铁路、电信、基础设施到吉布提海军基地，中国的身影无处不在。在联合国安理会(UN Security Council)五个常任理事国中，中国的驻非维和人员最多。当津巴布韦的军方将领们准备把穆加贝赶下台时，他们首先知会的是北京、而不是华盛顿。

Accusations surfaced last month that Beijing had been routinely bugging the $200m headquarters of the African Union it built in Addis Ababa. The muted African response suggested there were no secrets between friends.

今年初有人指控北京方面一直在监听非洲联盟(African Union)位于亚的斯亚贝巴的总部大楼，那座造价2亿美元的大楼是北京方面援建的。非洲方面的含混回应暗示朋友之间没有秘密。

“I don’t think there is anything done here that we would not like people to know,” Paul Kagame, president of Rwanda and chair of the AU, told reporters. At least, he seemed to be saying, the Chinese were listening.

非洲联盟主席、卢旺达总统保罗•卡加梅(Paul Kagame)对记者表示：“我不认为这里(非盟总部)有什么事情是我们不想让人们知道的。”他的意思似乎是，至少中国人在听。