中国内地房地产开发商大幅撤出香港土地市场

Chinese property developers have retreated sharply from Hong Kong’s booming land market, becoming the latest industry to be dented by Beijing’s capital controls and intensified scrutiny of outbound transactions.

中国内地房地产开发商已从香港红火的土地市场大幅撤出，成为最新一个被北京方面的资本管制和对出境交易的加强审查所累的行业。

Chinese developers won 11 per cent of bids by value in Hong Kong government land auctions since April, down from about 50 per cent in the preceding two years, according to an analysis of official data by Standard & Poor’s, the debt rating agency.

根据债务评级机构标准普尔(Standard & Poor's)对官方数据的分析，自去年4月以来，在香港政府的土地拍卖中，中国内地开发商拍得的土地按价值计占总数的11%，而之前两年的比例约为50%。

A range of Chinese companies, including debt-laden conglomerate HNA and developer China Vanke, piled into the Hong Kong property market over the past few years in an effort to capitalise on the surge in prices in the semi-autonomous Chinese territory.

过去几年，为了搭上这块半自治中国领土房价飙升的顺风车，包括负债累累的综合性企业海航集团(HNA)以及开发商万科(China Vanke)在内，有一系列中国内地企业涌入香港房地产市场。

Densely populated Hong Kong has the world’s most unaffordable residential property, measured as a proportion of median income, according to Demographia, an urban planning consultancy.

根据城市规划咨询机构Demographia的数据，按房价与收入中值之比衡量，人口稠密的香港的住宅地产是世界上最难以负担的。

Prices have continued to set record highs, even as the city faces growing political tensions because of Beijing’s increasing intervention and a backlash from democracy activists.

香港房价持续创下新高，尽管这座城市正因北京方面越来越多的干预和民主活动人士的反弹而面临日益加剧的政治紧张。

Esther Liu, an analyst at S&P, said the main reason for the pullback by Chinese developers was the clampdown on outbound investment by the Chinese government, which began in late-2016. Beijing has since intensified the crackdown as it seeks to stem capital outflows and discipline companies such as HNA that borrowed heavily to fund a flurry of overseas deals.

标准普尔分析师Esther Liu表示，中国内地开发商撤出香港的主要原因是，中国政府自2016年底开始打压对外投资。后来，为了遏制资本外流并管教像海航这样靠大幅举债筹资展开一系列海外并购的企业，北京方面加强了打压力度。

Ms Liu said that Chinese developers were also deterred by the longer development cycle in Hong Kong, compared with mainland China.

Esther Liu表示，内地开发商面临的另一个障碍是，相比内地，香港的房地产开发周期更长。

She said it typically took six to nine months in China for developers to progress from buying land to launching their first off-plan sales. In Hong Kong, by contrast, it can take several years to plan the development of the site and obtain the required permissions.

她表示，在内地，开发商从拿地到出售首批期房的流程一般需要6到9个月。而在香港，可能需要好几年的时间来规划地块开发并获得所需的批准。

Ingrid Cheh, an associate director of research at Jones Lang LaSalle, the real estate services company, said mainland developers still “have a mandate to plant a flag in the Hong Kong in the residential sector”.

房地产服务公司仲量联行(Jones Lang LaSalle)香港研究部副董事车永筠(Ingrid Cheh)表示，内地开发商仍“背负着在香港住宅地产领域竖起一面旗帜的任务”。

But she said she believed they would be more cautious than in previous years because of the capital controls. Ms Cheh also expects more mainland developers to enter joint ventures with the big local property developers such as Sun Hung Kai and Cheung Kong, which have traditionally dominated the market.

但她表示，她认为由于资本管制，内地开发商将比前几年更加谨慎。车永筠还预计，内地开发商将更多地与新鸿基(Sun Hung Kai)、长江实业(Cheung Kong)等传统上控制香港房地产市场的本地大开发商建立合资企业。

Despite the retreat of the mainland developers, analysts forecast that Hong Kong property prices will continue to rise.

尽管内地开发商撤出，分析师们仍预测香港房价将继续上涨。

Ms Cheh expects residential prices to jump 10 per cent this year, with the luxury market growing even more strongly.

车永筠预计，住宅地产价格今年将跃升10%，高端市场的增长将更为强劲。

Ms Liu also forecasts that prices will increase but she believes an expansion in housing supply and the possibility of further interest rate rises will cool the pace of growth.

Esther Liu也预计香港房价会上升，但她认为，住房供应的扩大和进一步加息的可能性将减缓增速。

Additional reporting by Nicolle Liu Nicolle Liu补充报道