2018年开局交易活跃令交易所振奋

The busiest January on global markets in many years is raising hopes among exchanges and market venues that 2018 will spark a long-awaited rebound in trading revenues.

全球市场上多年来最繁忙的1月份令各交易所和市场萌生期待，希望2018年将引发期盼已久的交易收入反弹。

Volatility on foreign exchange markets has spiked after comments from the US Treasury secretary about the weakness of the US dollar sent the greenback tumbling and volumes rising.

在美国财长发表了有关弱势美元的言论、导致美元汇率大幅下跌和交易量上升后，汇市波动性骤升。

Investors have also seen the 10-year Treasury yield, which sets the cost of money for the world, rise its most in more than a year on fears that inflation may be returning. Stock markets have dipped recently after rising on data showing strong growth in many of the world’s biggest economies.

投资者还看到，为全球资金成本设定基准的10年期美国国债收益率，由于市场担心通胀可能在卷土重来而出现一年多来最大攀升。股市在因为数据显示全球多个最大经济体增长强劲而上涨后，近日有所回落。

Those signals have driven a sharp pick-up in volumes after several weak years across equities, futures, currencies and fixed income markets. Low interest rates and steady economic growth after the financial crisis had left many markets becalmed.

这些信号推动着交易量急剧回升，此前股票、期货、外汇和固定收益市场经历了几年的疲软。金融危机过后的低利率和稳定经济增长使许多市场风平浪静。

CME Group, the world’s largest futures exchange, last week reported an average daily volume of 19m contracts, up 18 per cent year on year and its second-highest monthly average daily volume ever.

全球最大的期货交易所——芝加哥商品交易所集团(CME Group)上周平均日交易量为1900万手，同比增长18%，并创下月度日均交易量第二高。

Deutsche Börse said the 34 per cent year-on-year increase in turnover on its cash markets was its highest January number since 2008. MarketAxess, the US corporate bond trading venue, reported record average daily volume for the month, up 22 per cent year on year.

德意志交易所(Deutsche Börse)表示，其现金市场交易量同比增长34%，是自2008年以来最高的1月数字。美国公司债券交易市场MarketAxess报告了创纪录的1月日均成交量，同比增长22%。

“I think its an ‘early great indicator’,” said Richard Repetto, analyst at Sandler O’Neill in New York. “Not only have volumes in January showed strength, but more importantly, most volatility measures have increased as well. Barring a severe, prolonged pullback in the markets, which eventually would weigh on transaction activity, the volume outlook looks good right now.”

“我认为这是一个‘早期的大好指标’，”Sandler O’Neill 在纽约的分析师理查德•雷佩托(Richard Repetto)表示。“1月份不仅成交量显示出强劲，更重要的是多数波动性指标也出现上升。除非市场上出现严重而长时间的回调，最终拖累交易活动，否则眼下的交易量前景看起来不错。”

Yet many executives remain cautious after several lean years. Terry Duffy, CME chief executive, last week described 2017 as “certainly an unusual year. Virtually every asset class experienced reduced volatility”.

然而，在经历了几年的艰辛之后，许多高管保持谨慎。芝加哥商品交易所首席执行官特里•达菲(Terry Duffy)上周将2017年形容为“肯定是不寻常的一年。几乎每一个资产类别都经历了波动性降低”。

The UK’s Nex Group reported double-digit growth for January in repo markets, which act as critical sources of short-term funding and collateral for financial institutions. It also runs one of the world’s biggest foreign exchange trading venues.

英国Nex Group报告1月份回购市场出现两位数增长;这类市场是金融机构短期资金和抵押的重要来源。该集团还运营着世界上最大的外汇交易场所之一。

“It’s still too early to assume with any confidence that the prolonged and subdued conditions have come to an end — but I do keep hoping,” said Michael Spencer, chief executive of Nex. “I’m hopeful the FX markets are more generous to us this year than they have been in past years.”

“现在就信心满满地假设漫长的低迷状况已经结束还为时过早，但我继续抱以期许，”Nex首席执行官迈克尔•斯宾塞(Michael Spencer)表示。“我希望今年外汇市场对我们比过去几年更加慷慨。”

Traders have also noted that despite the sharp increase in January trading activity, closely watched indicators measuring volatility in US equity and Treasury markets were still below long-term trends.

交易员们还指出，尽管1月份交易活动大幅增加，但受到密切关注的衡量美国股票和国债市场波动性的指标仍低于长期趋势。

The Vix index, a benchmark measure of implied volatility on equity markets, has been trading below its long-term average for most of the past two years.

Vix指数是股市隐含波动率的基准指标;在过去两年的大部分时间里，该指数一直低于其长期平均水平。

However the Vix jumped nearly 30 per cent on Friday to its highest level since November 2016. Cboe Global Markets, owner of the Vix indices, said Vix options volumes hit an all-time high of 4.3m contracts on Friday, surpassing the previous record by 39 per cent.

然而上周五Vix指数跃升近30%，达到自2016年11月以来的最高水平。Vix指数的所有者——芝加哥期权交易所全球市场(Cboe Global Markets)表示，Vix期权交易量上周五创下430万份合约的历史最高纪录，比之前的纪录高出39%。