欧洲银行家不认为美中会爆发全面贸易战

European bank bosses have warned that Donald Trump’s “America-first” approach risks creating a more fragmented global economy, while predicting that it is unlikely to trigger an all-out trade war between the US and China.

欧洲各大银行掌门人警告称，唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的“美国优先”政策可能会造成更支离破碎的全球经济，但他们预测它不太可能引发美中全面贸易战。

The heads of some of Europe’s biggest lenders told the Financial Times at the World Economic Forum on the day of Mr Trump’s arrival that the consequences of a tit-for-tat escalation of tariffs between the world’s two biggest economies would be so dire they did not believe it would happen.

在特朗普抵达达沃斯当天，欧洲部分大型银行的负责人在世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)上向英国《金融时报》(Financial Times)表示，世界两个最大经济体之间针锋相对的关税升级将带来非常可怕的后果，他们不认为这会发生。

This week the US imposed tariffs on imports of solar cells and washing machines and senior Trump administration officials warned that Washington was preparing to intensify its measures to prevent what it views as unfair trading practices around the world.

本周美国对进口太阳能电池和洗衣机征收关税，特朗普政府高级官员警告说，华盛顿正准备加强措施，以阻止世界各地被其视为不公平的贸易行为。

“You have to be concerned. But do I think there’s going to be a bad outcome? No,” Bill Winters, chief executive of Standard Chartered, said in Davos.

渣打银行(Standard Chartered)首席执行官比尔•温特斯(Bill Winters)在达沃斯上称：“你不得不担心。但我是否认为会有糟糕的结果呢?否。”

“The US appears to be taking a measured approach and I would expect the Chinese to take a measured approach in response,” said the US-born boss of London-listed StanChart, which earns most of its revenue in Asia, Africa and the Middle East.

伦敦上市的渣打银行的这位在美国出生的掌门人表示：“美国似乎采取了谨慎的态度，我预计中国也会相应采取慎重立场。”渣打大多数收入来自亚洲、非洲和中东。

“It is not in the US interest, it is not in China’s interest, it is maybe in some political interests in the US. But measured approaches seem to be as effective in supporting the base as more dramatic action,” he said, referring to Mr Trump’s blue-collar voter base.

“这不符合美国利益，也不符合中国利益，可能符合美国一部分政治利益。但是在为基础选民提供帮助方面，谨慎态度似乎与更激进的举动同样有效，”他表示，言下所指的是特朗普的蓝领基础选民。

There is particular concern about the risk of a trade war with China, since it could have wide economic consequences and complicate separate US measures conducted with China to tackle North Korea’s missile and nuclear programme.

眼下，外界对于美中贸易战的风险格外关注，因为它可能带来广泛的经济后果，并使得美国与中国共同采取的应对朝鲜导弹和核计划问题的单独措施更加复杂。

Ralph Hamers, chief executive of ING, the Dutch bank, said: “I see a further polarisation of the world economy. I can see some areas that really continue free trade and others that don’t, like the US and frankly the UK, at least until Brexit happens.

荷兰国际集团(ING)首席执行官拉尔夫•哈默斯(Ralph Hamers)表示：“我发现世界经济两极化正进一步加深。我可以看到部分地区确实在继续实行自由贸易，而有些地区不是这样，比如美国，老实说，还有英国，至少在英国退欧发生前。”

“Trump will impact [trade] volumes, but it’s beyond Trump,” said Mr Hamers, pointing to the difficult negotiations between the UK and EU over a post-Brexit trade deal as another area where more trade barriers could be erected.

“特朗普将影响(贸易)总额，但影响贸易的不只是特朗普，”哈默斯表示，他指的是英国和欧盟之间就退欧后的贸易协议进行的艰苦谈判，将成为另一个可能设置更多贸易壁垒的领域。

The downbeat comments by the European bankers, who were due to meet Mr Trump at a dinner in Davos on Thursday evening ahead of the US president’s speech on Friday, contrasts with the more supportive remarks by their US peers, such as Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase.

欧洲银行家的悲观评论，与其美国同行——比如摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)的杰米•戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)——的积极言论形成对比。这些欧洲银行家周四晚上会在达沃斯晚宴上见到特朗普，后者将于周五发表演讲。

“When Americans speak and they talk about fair, they mean reciprocal,” Mr Dimon told CNBC. “That’s not what the Chinese mean by fair.”

“当美国人讲话并说起公平时，他们指的是互惠，”戴蒙向CNBC表示，“这不是中国人所说的公平的意思。”

The Trump administration faces deadlines for presidential action in the weeks ahead on national security investigations into imports of aluminium and steel and a wide-ranging probe of China’s intellectual property regime that many in Washington expect to lead to further tariffs and a crackdown on Chinese investment.

未来几周，特朗普政府将面临就两项调查做出总统决定的最后期限，一是对进口铝和钢铁进行的国家安全调查，二是对中国知识产权制度进行的广泛调查。华盛顿很多人认为调查将导致更多关税和对中国投资的打压。

“I don’t think it will end up in a trade war because there are no gainers and it goes against progress,” said Francisco González, chairman of BBVA of Spain, which has large operations in Mexico and Turkey. The fact that Mr Trump was in Davos was a “positive signal”.

“我不认为会以贸易战告终，因为这将导致两败俱伤的结局，并且是退步，”西班牙对外银行(BBVA)董事长弗朗西斯科•冈萨雷斯(Francisco González)表示。该银行在墨西哥和土耳其有大量业务。特朗普现身达沃斯本身是一个“积极信号”。

Looking for a silver lining, Mr Winters said: “We’ll see if there is a tit-for-tat, [but] what are the Chinese going to tat on the back of the US tit?

寻找一线希望的温特斯表示：“我们将关注是否存在针锋相对的情况，(但是)对于美国的剑拔弩张，中国将如何以牙还牙呢?”

“It is possible that they target American banks, it is also possible that they target American defence companies, or electronics companies or consumer goods companies. If they target American banks, on the margin that’s helpful for us. But that’s not a good thing.”

“他们可能会瞄准美国银行业，也有可能瞄准美国军工企业、电子公司或消费品公司。如果他们瞄准美国银行业，结果将有利于我们。但这不是一件好事。”

This week, the 11 remaining members of a trans-Pacific trade deal that the US rejected, including Japan, Canada and Australia, solved their differences and said they aimed to sign an agreement in March. Mr Winters said: “Asia is coming together and Asean is coming together, but America is breaking up.”

本周，包括日本、加拿大和澳大利亚在内的《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(TPP)在美国退出后余下的11个国家解决了分歧，并表示将于3月签署协议。温特斯表示：“亚洲将团结在一起，东盟(Asean)也将团结在一起，但美国就像一盘散沙。”