特朗普是个什么样的“天才”？
当唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)称自己是一个“精神状态非常稳定的天才”时，就连他的一些支持者都在窃笑。这位美国总统显然不属于任何通常意义上的天才。他的国务卿雷克斯•蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson)据称曾形容自己的老板是个“操蛋的白痴”。
But Mr Trump has a legitimate claim to three other kinds of “genius”: political genius, instinctive genius and evil genius. Moral disgust with Mr Trump means that his opponents are reluctant to credit him with any kind of intelligence or success. But that kind of thinking, while understandable, is also dangerous. It is one reason why the president frequently wrongfoots his opponents.
但特朗普有理由称自己是另外三种类型的“天才”：政治天才、直觉天才和邪恶天才。对特朗普的道德厌恶意味着，他的对手不愿承认他有任何智慧或成功之处。这种思维虽然可以理解，但也是危险的。这是美国总统经常让对手措手不及的原因之一。
As Mr Trump pointed out, when making his own immodest claim to “genius”, he achieved something unprecedented in modern American history. He was a complete political outsider who won the presidency on his first attempt. His enemies would point to the current government shutdown to suggest that the president is nonetheless completely unfit to govern. But Trump supporters will respond by pointing to a growing economy, and the passage of the first large-scale tax reform in more than 30 years.
正如特朗普在大言不惭地宣称自己是“天才”的时候所指出的，他取得了美国现代史上前所未有的成就。他以完全的政治局外人身份首次尝试竞选总统就得手。他的对手会指出，近日的政府停摆表明了这位总统完全不适合执政。但作为回应，特朗普的支持者会指出美国经济不断增长，而且30多年来首次通过了大规模税改。
Mr Trump campaigned on themes — protectionism, isolationism, opposition to immigration — that the political establishment was convinced were sure-fire losers, and even un-American. His political instincts told him otherwise. Steve Bannon, Mr Trump’s estranged campaign manager, was the man with the grand theories about economics and culture, larded with references to obscure and sinister European philosophers. Mr Trump was guided by an instinct that told him that he could smash taboos and not just fail to pay a price, but actually be rewarded.
当初特朗普的竞选主题是保护主义、孤立主义和反对移民，而政坛体制内人士确信这些理念必然失败，甚至是非美国的。但政治直觉告诉他其实不然。与特朗普闹僵的竞选经理史蒂夫•班农(Steve Bannon)在经济和文化方面有一些宏大的理论，还经常援引一些鲜为人知且恶毒的欧洲哲学家。特朗普的直觉告诉他，他可以打破禁忌，而且不仅不用付出代价，实际上还能得到回报。
The number of Mr Trump’s offences against truth and decency are too long to remember, let alone list. But they have a common theme. Time and again the mainstream media (of which I am a proud member) would proclaim that he had gone too far this time and that he was surely finished. Time and again, Mr Trump would prove them wrong and come back stronger. The things that failed to kill him politically — in particular racism and misogyny — actually made him stronger.
特朗普罔顾事实和基本礼仪的事例多到让人难以记清，更不用说一一列举了。但这些事有一个共同主题。主流媒体(我是其中自豪的一员)一次又一次地宣称，他这次做得太过分了，肯定完蛋了。而特朗普一次又一次地证明他们错了，他愈战愈强。那些未能在政治上终结他的东西——尤其是种族主义和贬低女性——实际上让他变得更强大。
That is why it is also legitimate to describe Mr Trump as an “evil” genius. He has deliberately used lies and offensive language to stoke up America’s culture wars and racial tensions, confident that he will benefit politically. There is a direct connection between the current row about the president’s complaint about immigration from “shithole countries” and the campaign that launched his political career — the “birther” lie that President Barack Obama was not born in the US.
这就是为什么把特朗普形容为一个“邪恶”天才也合情合理。他故意用谎言和攻击性语言来煽动美国国内的文化战争和种族矛盾，相信自己可以在政治上受益。特朗普对来自“粪坑国家”(shithole countries)移民的抱怨所引发的争吵，与当年启动他政治生涯的“birther”运动——质疑巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)总统并非出生在美国——可谓一脉相承。
Mr Trump and many of his supporters are tacitly defending the idea of America as a “white country”. The president’s opponents are right to describe this as a racist vision. But they may be wrong in thinking that this is a decisive argument. By the 2040s, the US is predicted to be “majority-minority”. Whites will be still be the largest ethnic group in the country, but they will be less than 50 per cent of the population. By railing against Mexicans, Muslims and Haitians, and calling for more immigration from Norway, Mr Trump is appealing directly to voters who feel angry about that racial and demographic shift. The current government shutdown is also linked to these issues, since it is caused by the president’s refusal to accept an amnesty for illegal immigrants who arrived as children.
特朗普和他的许多支持者在不明说的情况下，捍卫着美国作为一个“白人国家”的理念。反对者说得没错，这一理念是一种种族主义愿景。但如果他们认为这是一个决定性的论点，就可能错了。预计到本世纪40年代，美国将变成一个“少数族裔人口占多数的国家”。白人仍将是最大的种族群体，但他们的人数将不到美国总人口的50%。通过攻击墨西哥人、穆斯林和海地人，同时呼吁更多来自挪威的移民，特朗普在直接争取那些对种族和人口结构变化感到愤怒的选民。近日的政府停摆也与这些问题有关，因为事件的起因是总统拒绝对那些在儿童时期被非法带来美国的无证移民网开一面。
It should never be forgotten that a majority of white Americans voted for Mr Trump. Are these voters likely to turn away in disgust now because of the president’s “shithole country” comments? Or are they more likely quietly to agree? The record suggests that Mr Trump knows exactly what he is doing.
永远不应忘记的是，多数美国白人投票支持特朗普。这些选民现在可能会因为他的“粪坑国家”言论就出于厌恶而改变立场吗?还是更有可能默默地表示赞同?记录似乎表明，特朗普很清楚自己在做什么。
His ideas about race and immigration are nasty — but they are also widely shared, and not just in America. Japan accepted 28 refugees in the whole of 2016, and precisely three in the first half of 2017. It is virtually impossible for non-ethnic Chinese to gain citizenship in the People’s Republic of China, whose citizenship laws make explicit reference to “Chinese blood”. The EU has been split down the middle by the Polish and Hungarian governments’ refusal to accept EU-mandated quotas of refugees. The demand to “take back control” of British borders was fundamental to Britain’s Brexit vote. And the decline in Angela Merkel’s political fortunes in Germany has been closely linked to the chancellor’s decision to open her country’s borders to more than 1m refugees.
虽然他关于种族和移民的观念令人讨厌——但这些观念也是广泛抱有的，而且不仅限于美国。日本在整个2016年仅接收了28名难民，而2017年上半年的数字是3人。在中华人民共和国，非华裔移民几乎不可能获得公民身份，因为中国的国籍法明确提及“中国人的近亲属”。波兰和匈牙利政府拒绝接受欧盟(EU)规定的难民配额，致使欧盟在这一问题上陷入分裂。要求对英国边境“收回控制权”是英国退欧公投通过的根本原因。德国总理安格拉•默克尔(Angela Merkel)政治命运的下滑，与她向100多万难民开放国门的决定密切相关。
No European country has yet elected a Trump figure. But the continent’s politicians are tying themselves in knots trying to combine liberal principles with practical politics. President Emmanuel Macron speaks the language of tolerance, but is actually speeding up deportations of illegal migrants and tightening border controls. And nobody in Ms Merkel’s CDU party is campaigning for the Hungarian government to rip down the border walls that helped to stop the flow of refugees into Germany.
迄今还没有欧洲国家选出一位特朗普式的领导人。但欧洲大陆的政客们正纠结于尝试将自由主义原则与现实政治结合起来。埃马纽埃尔•马克龙(Emmanuel Macron)嘴上说着宽容，但实际上正在加速驱逐非法移民并收紧对边境的控制。默克尔所在的基民盟(CDU)党内也没人呼吁匈牙利政府拆除帮助阻止难民涌入德国的边境墙。
The fears and hatreds that the US president exploits exist well beyond his base. Liberal politicians need to find more effective policies and language to deal with those fears — or the “very stable genius” may continue to outsmart them.
美国总统利用的恐惧和仇恨，远不止存在于他的根基选民群体。自由派政界人士需要找到更有效的政策和话语来应对这些担忧，不然的话，“精神状态非常稳定的天才”可能继续智胜他们。
gideon.rachman@ft.com 译者/申凯
