分析：小米值1000亿美元吗？

Xiaomi has a scant 7 per cent share of the smartphone market and is still clawing its way back from a particularly torrid low point. Now bankers advising the Chinese handset maker on a potential initial public offering reckon it could be worth up to $100bn — roughly the same as investment bank Goldman Sachs or miner Rio Tinto.

小米勉强占据了智能手机市场7%的份额，目前它仍然奋力从格外艰难的低点往回爬。如今为这家中国手机制造商可能的首次公开发行(IPO)提供顾问服务的银行人士认为，小米估值可能高达1000亿美元——差不多与投行高盛(Goldman Sachs)或矿商力拓(Rio Tinto)的市值相当。

It may be unfair to call out the bankers. In Xiaomi’s case their view is doubtless aided by founder Lei Jun. After the company was valued at $45bn in a 2014 funding round, he has swiftly segued from last year’s hubristic to exuberant.

质疑银行人士可能不公平。对于小米，他们的观点无疑受到了其创始人雷军的影响。在2014年的融资对该公司估值450亿美元后，他已迅速从去年的傲慢自大切换为春风得意。

More generally, markets are whipping up animal spirits, with indices in the US and Hong Kong setting fresh highs in recent days. That has already wooed US tech groups like Dropbox, the file-sharing platform, which this month appointed bankers to lead its initial public offering.

更广泛而言，市场正在掀起动物精神，最近几天美国和香港股指频频冲上新高。这使得美国科技集团蠢蠢欲动，比如本月指派银行人士负责其IPO的文件共享平台Dropbox。

It is no surprise that the tide is washing up in even bigger waves in China, home to four of the 10 biggest unicorns, private companies worth more than $1bn, and six “deca-corns”, those worth $10bn. All are now considered fair game to go public, regardless of bottom line losses and an almost universal proclivity to burn cash.

此次浪潮在中国掀起更大的波浪，这不足为奇，毕竟全球10家最大的“独角兽”公司(估值超过10亿美元的非上市公司)中有4家在中国，且中国还拥有6家“十角兽”公司(估值超过100亿美元的非上市公司)。这些公司如今都被视为潜在上市公司，尽管它们处于亏损且几乎都表现出了烧钱倾向。

Those with a vested interest in a buoyant IPO market — the advisers, exchanges and regulators who have chafed at start-ups’ predilection for staying private for longer — point to tightening monetary policy and founders’ egos as reasons for more of them to go public.

那些在活跃的IPO市场存在既得利益的人——那些苦恼于初创公司倾向于在更长时间内保持私有状态的顾问、交易所以及监管部门——指出，不断收紧的货币政策和创始人的自我价值感是促使更多企业上市的原因。

Others may find it a less than irresistible proposition.

其他人可能发现这个观点没那么令人信服。

For investors, start with precedent. Some companies have performed supremely well after listing but half of last year’s Chinese start-up IPOs are trading below their offer price, according to Dealogic.

投资者请先看看先例。一些企业在上市后表现极为出色，但根据Dealogic的数据，去年进行IPO的中国初创公司中，如今有一半都跌破了发行价。

Tech is an industry where Chinese regulators are playing catch-up but they carry big sticks when they do. Case in point: payday lenders, which took a hit when Beijing signalled concerns about injudicious lending, usurious interest rates and coercive collection practices.

中国监管部门正在中国科技业玩追赶游戏，只不过他们是拿着棍棒。典型的例子：“发薪日贷款”(payday loan，即小额短期贷款)机构——当北京方面对不当贷款、过高利率和强制还款的做法发出担忧信号时，办理此类业务的机构遭受了打击。

Last October, Qudian, which is backed by Alibaba affiliate Ant Financial, raised $900m on the New York Stock Exchange, the largest US IPO ever by a Chinese fintech group. It was followed by PPDAI, which raised $221m in a deal that priced below the initial price range. Share prices of each are now roughly half the offer price.

去年10月，由阿里巴巴(Alibaba)关联企业蚂蚁金服(Ant Financial)出资支持的趣店(Qudian)在纽交所(NYSE)融资9亿美元，是有史以来中国金融科技公司在美国最大规模的IPO。随后，拍拍贷(PPDAI)以低于最初发行价区间的价格融资2.21亿美元。两家公司的股价如今都仅为发行价的一半左右。

Second, Chinese tech is an entirely new ballgame, not US mark 2. As John Hsin, a partner with China Renaissance’s Huaxing Growth Capital puts it, US investors like investing in Chinese copycats of US companies: they know and understand the business model, and simply get to plug in a bigger number because China has more people.

第二，中国科技业是一个全新的局面，并非美国2.0。正如华兴资本(China Renaissance)旗下的华兴成长资本(Huaxing Growth Capital)的合伙人John Hsin所说的那样，美国投资者喜欢投资那些模仿美国企业的中国公司：他们知道并理解其中的商业模式，只需要换上更大的数字，因为中国人口更多。

But, he adds, Chinese tech has evolved away from companies focused on a single area, such as social media, towards tech conglomerates that invest in everything from banking to shopping to video games. Meituan-Dianping, which began life as a discounting site like the US’s Groupon, now offers food delivery, travel bookings, restaurant reservations and ride-hailing.

但是，他补充称，中国科技企业已经从专注单一领域(比如社交媒体)进化为投资从银行业务到购物、再到视频游戏等各个领域的科技综合企业。由类似于美国Groupon的折扣网站起家的美团-点评(Meituan-Dianping)，如今提供外卖配送、旅行预订、餐厅订位以及叫车服务。

Companies also have reason to be wary of the public markets. Sure, there is cash to be had, particularly overseas cash which few Chinese groups earn and is useful for acquisitions. There is prestige too, and an IPO means less reliance on a smaller (but very rich, very liquid and very willing) pool of investors. Yet existing investors can be a useful bunch. Most tech start-ups have received money from Alibaba or Tencent, and the two giants bring more than money. Most important, they can provide traffic: Tencent’s WeChat app has just shy of 1bn monthly active users; Alibaba boasts 550m mobile customers who use its Chinese marketplaces every month.

企业也有理由对公开市场保持警惕。当然，上市可以获得现金，尤其是中国企业很少能赚到、但对收购很有用的海外现金。另外还有声望，IPO意味着减少对更小的一群(但非常富有、流动性很强、意愿强烈的)投资者的依赖。然而，现有投资者可能是一群有用的投资者。大多数科技初创企业都从阿里巴巴或腾讯(Tencent)那里获得了资金，这两个巨头带来的不仅仅是金钱。最重要的是，它们可以提供流量：腾讯微信(WeChat)应用的每月活跃用户接近10亿;阿里巴巴声称旗下平台的月度手机用户达5.5亿。

Most Chinese start-ups are still burning through cash. In businesses where scale is everything, subsidies to woo drivers and other suppliers as well as customers are a cost of doing business. That makes it tricky to estimate when things will be profitable, which does not go down well with the impatient investors who dominate Wall Street.

大多数中国初创企业仍在烧钱。在规模就是一切的企业中，提供补贴以吸引司机和其他供应商以及客户是做生意的代价。这让评估企业何时能盈利变得困难，这一点很难被那些主宰着华尔街的急躁投资者所接受。

Xiaomi by all accounts is back in the black, but not massively so. It has supplemented its initial business model — making iPhone-like phones for a fraction of the price — with connected home appliances, exercise wristbands, looping them all into a fledgling ecosystem. But saying that is worth $100bn is a heroic assumption too far — and one that risks swiftly dampening animal spirits.

根据各方说法，小米已实现盈利，但规模不太大。小米在其初始商业模式(生产类似iPhone的手机，但价格仅为前者的几分之一)的基础上，增加了互联家电、运动手环，把它们都圈入一个已具雏形的生态系统中。但说它价值1000亿美元则是一个太过大胆的假设，此假设可能很快就会打击动物精神。