特朗普时代的政府停摆

There is nothing like a good shutdown to remind America that Washington still exists. But the latest one, which started at midnight on Friday, comes with a special flavour — it coincides with the first anniversary of Donald Trump’s inauguration.

除政府停摆外，再也没有其他事能更好地提醒美国，华盛顿仍然存在。但是，最近一次政府停摆(从上周五午夜开始)还有另一层特别意味——那一刻正值唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)就职一周年。

Unlike previous shutdowns, including a 16-day one during Barack Obama’s presidency, the latest has been actively willed by the president. Mr Trump tweeted last year that Washington needed “a good shutdown” to clear the air. At several points, Mr Trump and Democratic legislators have struck a deal to keep government open only for Mr Trump to renege shortly afterwards. Now, having allowed federal departments to shutter, Mr Trump is goading Democrats to keep it that way. “Democrats are holding our Military (sic) hostage over their desire to have unchecked illegal immigration,” he tweeted on Saturday.

与之前的政府停摆(包括巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)在任期间长达16天的停摆)不同，最新一轮政府停摆是特朗普希望看到的。去年特朗普曾在Twitter上发文称华盛顿需要“一次好的停摆”来整肃风气。有几次，特朗普和民主党议员敲定协议让政府继续运转，只是为了让特朗普在事后不久食言。如今，在放任联邦部门关闭后，特朗普正不断刺激民主党继续这么解决。“民主党为了让非法移民不受控制而把我们的军队(Military，原文如此)作为人质，”他上周六发文称。

Mr Trump’s line included three contentious points. First, most of the US military is exempt from the shutdown. Second, the Democrats want to protect the 800,000 “Dreamers” — children of illegal immigrants — from deportation rather than open the floodgates to new arrivals. Mr Trump himself has insisted that “we should take care” of the Dreamers. More than once he has said: “I love these kids”. Third, Republicans control both houses of Congress and the White House. Although they fall short of the 60-seat Senate threshold required to pass spending bills, this is America’s first shutdown when one party has controlled all branches of government.

特朗普的话里存在三个有争议的观点。第一，美国大多数军队都不会受到停摆影响。第二，民主党希望保护80万“梦想者”(非法移民的孩子)免于被遣返，而不是希望为新进入美国的非法移民打开闸门。特朗普本人坚持称“我们应该照顾”梦想者。他不止一次说过：“我爱这些孩子。”第三，共和党控制着国会两院和白宫。尽管共和党没达到通过支出法案所要求的60个参议院席位的门槛，但这是美国有史以来第一次在一党控制所有政府分支情况下的政府停摆。

Yet Mr Trump is betting that the public’s anti-immigration feeling will outweigh its disgust with Washington’s latest shenanigan. The key turning point probably came last week where Mr Trump described Africa and Caribbean countries as “shitholes” — or “shithouses”, according to Republicans in the meeting — which poisoned chances of striking a deal. The two parties are now at an impasse. Mr Trump will only agree to protect the Dreamers if Democrats sign on to fund a border wall with Mexico — the president’s signature campaign promise. Democrats will only vote to keep the government opening if Mr Trump protects the Dreamers, which was one of Mr Obama’s big goals.

不过特朗普正押注于公众的反移民情绪将超过对政府最新把戏的反感。关键转折点可能出现在上上周，当时特朗普把非洲和加勒比地区的国家称为“粪坑”或“茅房”(后面这个词是据当时在场的共和党人所讲)，这毁掉了两党敲定协议的可能性。眼下两党陷入僵局。只有民主党同意为修建美墨边境墙(特朗普标志性的竞选承诺)提供资金，特朗普才会同意保护梦想者。只有特朗普保护梦想者(奥巴马当年的主要目标之一)，民主党才会投票让政府运转。

Which party will lose the political game? Large majorities of Americans support giving the Dreamers legal status. But if the game of chicken keeps Washington closed beyond a few days, public sentiment could turn. National parks could close. Salaries will go unpaid. Some government benefits will stop. Mr Trump will brand Democrats as caring more about illegal immigrants than ordinary Americans. Indeed, he is already doing so.

哪一方会输掉这场政治博弈呢?绝大多数美国人支持给予梦想者合法身份。但是如果这场“胆小鬼博弈”让华盛顿在未来几天继续停摆，公众情绪可能会反转。国家公园可能会关闭。工资可能停发。一些政府福利将停发。特朗普将给民主党贴上关心非法移民胜过关心普通美国人的标签。的确，他已经在这么做了。

Even if DC re-opens on Monday, there are two aspects of the weekend’s chaos that are likely to endure. First, Mr Trump vowed he would be a dealmaker — that was his main selling point. Yet he has a habit of wriggling out of any oral deal he has struck. Last week, John Kelly, his chief of staff, told lawmakers that Mr Trump did not literally want a physical wall covering the entire 2,000 mile US-Mexico border. Mr Trump contradicted him on Twitter as “uninformed”.

即使政府在周一重新开门，造成周末大混乱的两个方面也可能延续。第一，特朗普发誓他会是一名交易撮合者——这是他的主要卖点。不过他还有推脱口头协议的习惯。上上周，他的幕僚长约翰•凯利(John Kelly)向国会议员表示，特朗普并不是真的想要建一堵覆盖全长2000英里的美墨边境的实体墙。特朗普在Twitter上反驳他“不了解情况”。

In addition to being unable to uphold a deal with Democrats, Mr Trump disagrees with crucial White House officials. The president’s own people are in a state of rolling confusion about what he wants.

除了无法维持与民主党的协议外，特朗普还与白宫关键官员存在分歧。这位总统的自己人正处于不知道他想要什么的混乱状态中。

Second, Mr Trump’s antipathy to most forms of immigration outweighs any sentimental attachment to “these kids”. Though logic suggests it would make sense to agree on a special carve-out for Dreamers, Mr Trump so far just cannot bring himself to do it.

第二，特朗普对大多数移民形式的反感超过了对“这些孩子”的感情。虽然从逻辑上看，同意为梦想者开辟一条特殊道路是明智的做法，但特朗普至今就是无法做到这点。