Lex专栏：中国券商有望受益于IPO热潮

The proposed $100bn float of Xiaomi should excite Lei Jun, founder of the Beijing-based smartphone maker. Investors in Citic Securities may benefit, too. Press reports moot its subsidiary CLSA as a sponsor to the initial public offering. Citic shares have risen 10 per cent in the two days since. An expected IPO boom bodes well for brokerage companies more broadly.

小米(Xiaomi)拟议中的1000亿美元上市计划，应该会让这家总部位于北京的智能手机制造商的创始人雷军感到兴奋。中信证券(Citic Securities)的投资者也可能从中受益。媒体报道称，其子公司中信里昂证券(CLSA)将成为此次首次公开发行(IPO)的保荐人之一。自那以来的两天内，中信股价已上涨10%。预期中的IPO热潮对券商作为一个整体是个好兆头。

Analysts at Nomura expect IPO volumes to increase 10 per cent to Rmb265bn ($41bn). Citic and Guangfa Securities have the largest IPO pipelines with at least twice the number of deals of third-ranked group Orient Securities, as of November.

野村证券(Nomura)分析师预计IPO规模将增长10%，至2650亿元人民币(合410亿美元)。截至去年11月，中信证券和广发证券(Guangfa Securities)拥有规模最大的IPO管道，交易数量至少是排名第三的东方证券(Orient Securities)的两倍。

Regulatory tightening is putting the squeeze on secondary refinancings. But the impact is softened by the fact that fees on these deals are less than a fifth of commissions on IPOs in percentage terms. Even cutting the secondaries business by half would at most reduce sector revenues by 3 per cent.

监管收紧正在对二次再融资造成挤压。但其影响已被减缓——因为按百分比计算，这些交易的费用不到IPO佣金的五分之一。即使将二级业务削减一半，最多也会使整个行业的收入减少3%。

Brokerage and investment income together account for more than half of brokers’ revenues. Positive stock market sentiment provides a tailwind to both activities. Trading volumes have declined two years in a row since the 2015 bust and are due a bounce back. Recent regulation restricts investors to a maximum of three broker accounts, down from 20. This should help slow a decline in commission rates.

经纪和投资收入合计占到券商收入的一半以上。乐观的股市情绪为这两项活动提供了推动力。自2015年崩盘以来，交易量已连续两年下降，是时候迎来反弹。最近的监管规定限制投资者最多开立3个券商账户，以前是20个。这将有助于减缓佣金费率的下滑。

Citic occupies a sweet spot in investment because its relatively low exposure to bonds makes it less vulnerable to rising rates than rivals. Leverage, measured by the ratio of liabilities to equity, is lower than historical averages and that of foreign groups. Bulls will demand more margin financing, which could boost the balance sheet size along with the group’s return on equity.

中信在投资方面占据了有利地位，相对较低的债券敞口意味着，相对于竞争对手，它更不容易受到利率上升的影响。杠杆率(以负债与股本之比衡量)低于历史平均水平和外资集团。看涨市场的人将需求更多的保证金融资，这可能会提振资产负债表规模，并提高该集团的股本回报率。

Despite their recent increase, shares of Citic Securities trade at a multiple of 1.3 times book — still a discount to their long run average. Chinese investment banks that own brokerages are a cheap way for investors to benefit from the country’s bull market.

尽管最近股价有所上涨，但中信证券的股价仍是账面价值的1.3倍，低于长期平均水平。拥有券商业务的中国投行是投资者获益于中国牛市的低成本渠道。